I've been thinking about this a lot lately, and I think if you are an enthusiast that spends $400 a year on the best card then the choice is not so clear, especially with both vendors' next-gen chips hitting the market this spring or summer. However, if you are planning on a long-term upgrade then you may be better off with the ATi 9600 or 9800 Pro. I think that people overreacted a little to the whole Half-Life 2/ShaderMark thing, but it did demonstrate some engineering problems with the NV30. DX9 games are really starting to take off, and I think that though nVidia makes some good products the whole thing with the NV30's 32-bit shader performance makes me weary to recommend to someone who doesn't replace their 3D hardware frequently. In other words, NV30 may not age as gracefully as R300. Also, I'm not up to date on prices, but nVidias generally seem to be overpriced, while you can get a Sapphire 9800 Pro for $210 w/shipping. I made the switch a few weeks ago, with Driver Cleaner instead of a re-install, and I think that the Catalyst drivers are excellent and game performance is awesome. When HL2 ships this summer I don't think that nVidia users are going to miserably dissappointed, but I think it WILL show that ATi's design is more forward-minded. In the end it really has to do with how often you upgrade.
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