AMD Closes Below $8: Wall Street not Happy with Delays

http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/newstex/AFX-0013-21730671.htm

AMD hits year low on product delays
December 17, 2007: 07:23 PM EST


Dec. 17, 2007 (Thomson Financial delivered by Newstex) --

NEW YORK (AP) - Shares in microchip maker Advanced Micro Devices Inc. hit a year low Monday on continuing negative reaction to the company's analyst meeting last Thursday.

In a note to investors, Citi (NYSE:C) analyst Glen Yeung said his view of the company was confirmed at the meeting, in which AMD (NYSE:AMD) acknowledged delays in key products.

Yeung said AMD's problems opened an opportunity for competitor Intel Corp. (NASDAQ:INTC) to add market share in high-margin notebook and server chips.

He noted AMD raised its 2008 guidance above current analyst consensus and said the company's estimates were 'overly optimistic' and built on 'unrealistic assumptions.'
AMD, which has been hit by a series of delays in key products, acknowledged its shortcomings at the analyst meeting and said it aims to reach profitability in the second half of 2008 after losses in every quarter of 2007.

Its shares fell 48 cents, or 5.7 percent, to a 52-week low of $7.95 Monday. Shares had traded between $8.42 and $23 over the past year.
PS - I predicted this!
 

epsilon84

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Damn.

I guess AMD's ever rosy outlooks are starting to wear thin with analysts and investors. Tell me, when was the last time they actually met their financial forecast estimates? They always end up with some lame excuse for why the estimates were not met... and if they run out of excuses, Hector starts crying MONOPOLY!
 

Kamrooz

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Ouch. I've actually watched the webcast, it wasn't pretty. I was also surprised at how little Hector knew about the company. If you watch the Q&A at the end, he couldn't even answer some financial questions (none of the technical, with obvious reason), which he handed to other members of the AMD staff.

R700 wasn't spoken about either, which makes sense since this was regarding their plans for 2008, but they did show updated roadmaps, which slotted the r700 in 2009.

Personally though, I think they will be closer to eliminating their quarterly losses for this time frame. The 3850/3870 has been a very hot seller, I expect it to make a dent in their aim for profitability. It won't bring them up a large amount, but should take off a chunk. I just hope r680 gets released soon, and before the 9800 series from Nvidia.
 

NMDante

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Again, to play Devil's advocate -

The entire market took a huge nose dive, not just AMD. Sure, they dropped below $8, but Intel lost $.66 (normal and afterhours). The Dow Jones lost almost $173 and Nasdaq lost $61. AMD is looking worse, just cause of the condition and position it is in nowadays, but again, it wasn't just them that had a bad day, but pretty much everyone.
 

I

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In summary, since AMD only had a momentary setback, now is a great time to buy AMD stock if you're willing to hold onto it for more than a couple quarters.

Intel took a good lead with the Hi-K transistors, and AMD a setback with the bug, but soon their value will readjust unless someone swoops in and buys them.
 
I would say that AMD needs to re-focus their strategy back to basics. They should spin-off ATI as an independent company or look to someone who is willing to acquire them.

AMD is cutting R&D expenses and that means there is less money for both CPU & GPU development. By becoming a CPU company again, AMD can refocus their attention on their formerly primary business.

At this point they are loosing out to both Intel and nVidia. That's a two front war of attrition which AMD is likely to loose if nothing is done immediately.
 



Don't even try to say that AMD is going down with the market! Don't compare dollar amounts between stocks and indices, compare percentages.

Here some FACTS for you:

AMD vs. DOW


AMD vs. INTC



The market has gone down a hair in three months.

Intel has gained a little in three months.

AMD HAS LOST 40% OF ITS VALUE IN THREE MONTHS. STOP BLAMING THE MARKETS.
 


TC's right, and i ask my self "what products would i want to buy from ATi/AMD?" - the answer is none, and thats a problem... cause im sure there are thousands like me who want what i want... sorry AMD you have nothing, even the products you offer were offered too late.
 

shargrath

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well if i had the money id invest a bit in them not to much. as they may go down altogether,

shari***spin: "AMD investors afraid just like the calm before the storm only it seems to be caused by the massive amounts of innovation and originality + intel killing performance and peff per watt in pre configured systems, there jumping ship like henri richards... which btw left due to AMD's idea's and innovations causing further heart problems. ZOMG AMD 4 LYF,"
 


LOL. I'm not the one in crisis though, AMD is. I don't think some people on this board understand the seriousness of the situation. AMD has basically lost 40% of it's value since November, that is shocking and alarming.

I agree with others that there is the potential to gain a lot of money. If AMD gets back on its feet you could very easily double your money in a year. However, there is also a lot of risk. AMD is going to bleed at least until 4Q 2008, and may not even see the black until 2009.

Unlike the United States government (which has virtually unlimited and undisputed credit), AMD can only accumulate so much debt before creditors start saying "no". Once this happens AMD will no longer be able to pay its bills.

I think what needs to be done is a steady trend toward stability. If AMD can show shrinking quartly deficits that trend toward 1Q 2009 profitability you'll see investor confidence restored.

However, when 4Q numbers come out, I think a lot of you will be surprised at another 300M+ loss.
 

leo2kp

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^^ Intel? :p



I'm planning on buying in to AMD eventually. I think they're important enough in the industry to be a good investment to someone whose willing to fork out the dough to buy them and turn them around.
 

TSIMonster

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I think it would be interesting for Samsung to invest in AMD. They could definitely turn AMD around. I don't have a single Samsung product that I am displeased with
 

cubicleslave

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Well I'm no financial expert, but wouldn't AMD's current debt be a big disincentive for somebody to buy them? Whoever buys them out will become the new owner of all that debt, which I've lost track of (a few billion here, a few billion there). I've heard of the term "poison pill", which I've always thought referred to the practice of a company loading up on debt to avoid a hostile takeover. AMD did not take on that debt to avoid a takeover. They did it to acquire ATI and to have enough operating cash just to stay alive, but the end result would be the same as poison pill. As I said, I'm no financial expert, so that could be something else entirely.
 

wolverinero79

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Now, I don't think much of Mr. Ruiz, but I will say that his handing off questions doesn't actually necessarily mean he doesn't know the answers to the questions. Before conferences like these, the parties involved will always have a list of prepared questions they think will be asked and canned responses well phrased as answers. Each person has a small set of these. So when he hands off a question to someone else, either A.) He doesn't know the answer (although rare) or B.) Another person has a response that they agreed was the best earlier.
 

BaronMatrix

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So an idiot analyst who has probably never seen a PC assembly line much less a clean room can CRY "UNREALISTIC ASSUMPTIONS" with no explanation while ths company who is currently providing nearly 1/4 of the world's X86 CPUs can't miss the slightest trick?

A good example is the fact that VMWare is pleasing the stock market and MS is behind but they are not losing market cap like weight from a crack head. And as we know for MS within 3 months is "on-time."

ALL HAIL THE DUOPOLY!!!

Because I said so.
 

dario77

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back in 2001, just after 9/11, amd hit a low like this (duh...was 9/11! everyone went low...but amd was right around where it is now.). i'd been saving up for an enthusiast build, but instead i bought 100 shares of the little green guys. sit....wait....
athlon 64 dropped, press went wild, i sold out at ridiculous profits (definitely could afford that enthusiast build, not to mention a couple budget builds for friends!). waiting filled...
now, amd is down not because of 9/11, but because of its own internal terrorism. i'd be hesitant to buy again.

i confess, this has nothing to add to the thread. but all of this stock talk got me misty over the days when amd was a sound investment.

for the record, not taking sides in the whole blue vs. green debate. thats like getting into republicans vs. democrats...its a fake issue, a distraction from the real problems...
the only war we need to worry about is consumers vs. pricing. with amd crippled, they have to charge waaay too much. with intel reigning, they can charge whatever they want.
so please...no more blue vs. green. how about us vs. bluegreen....
 

BaronMatrix

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for the record, not taking sides in the whole blue vs. green debate. thats like getting into republicans vs. democrats...its a fake issue, a distraction from the real problems...
the only war we need to worry about is consumers vs. pricing. with amd crippled, they have to charge waaay too much. with intel reigning, they can charge whatever they want.
so please...no more blue vs. green. how about us vs. bluegreen....



If only it were that simple.
 

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