AMD Desktop PC Market Share Update

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You are comparing a sites sales numbers vs a place that watches market share. They are not one in the same as what your site has sales wise may not be the same across the board or in every country.
 
I believe your analysis misconstrues McCarron's quote. He is saying that to reach 30% requires AMD +250% or Intel -65%. To reach the low 20's, AMD must meet a historical high of +57% and Intel must meet their historical low of -24%.
So "AMD would have to more than triple its year-on-year volume, or Intel shipments would have to decline 65 percent in a very short amount of time." to in fact reach 30% market share, not the 20% you summarize.
 


The trend is undenying. Major OEM are even pushing more AMD products out of the doors because they know if they don't they will lose sales in the enxt 6-12 months.

Many analysts are saying the exact contrary than what Toms is publishing. The numbers doesn't align and especially that 12% or that 250%.
 


Oops, thanks, fixed!
 
With everyone waiting for Intel's latest 8 core processors to come out (including myself), I expect that AMD will continue to gain market share. The real question "Is AMD making profits on the gain in sales?" was answered by AMD's Q2 2108 financials when their Compute and Graphics Division lost 2.6% of sales revenue from the Q1 2018 quarter.
 


Still sales for a sinlge site do not equate to actual market share. There are still vastly more Intel systems in place that are being used than AMD. In fact the majority of say business systems are Intel still.

Current sales will slowly tip the scale but less than two years will not undo the paltry sales AMD had starting in 2006 till 2017 when Ryzen launched. It will probably take another year or so to make a massive change over in market share.

It would also mean Intel would have to fail big and I mean big on supplies to make that much of a change in a short period of time. I can't say for sure but I doubt Intel would drop supply long enough to allow such a drastic change.

Just to make it easier imagine if for the past 5 years Intel had 90% of the consumer market and AMD had 10% and every 5 years the oldest year is "retired". Then this year it was 50/50. That doesn't mean AMD now has 50% market share it means AMD has 50% of the desktop sales for that year but if you take a 5 year scope now with the 50% sales number then the market share would be 82% for Intel, 18% for AMD. If they kept a consisent 50/50 then every year it would drop so by the second year it would be 74/26, year 3 it would be 66/34, year 4 it would be 58/42 and finally 5 years later would be 50/50.

Of course that is a very basic example as some people hold onto systems for 10 years, some for 1 year etc.

We can say for sure that AMD has made more sales this year than in the previous 10 years and that's good. It will compel Intel to push harder and hopefully make a better market for us all. However the market share will still slowly change over the next few years.
 
Interesting. Nice to see. We are enthusiasts, so we replace our computers/motherboards every few years. Considering that most people don't, especially outside of the developed countries, the increase is significant. 3% share of all computer owners gained within 1.5 years means a LOT of Ryzen CPUs sold.

I have no idea where the "30% by the end of the year" value was taken from. I don't think it's achievable within the next 5 YEARS unless AMD somehow manages to absolutely revolutionize the market with some triple-digit IPC gains. There is no way every fourth computer owner on earth replaces their perfectly fine Intel computer with a Ryzen computer, and that assumes no AMD users switch to Intel too, by the end of the year. That is an absurd concept.

An AVERAGE life cycle of a computer is ~7 years at the moment. If every Intel computer on earth was to be replaced by an AMD computer, it would still take AMD years to reach 30% market share. Also, to see the problem from another perspective, the world's fab capacity would be insufficient to together manufacture enough chips to suddenly sell numbers of chips equal to 20% of the world's current supply within 3 months.
 
Just a summary that might put things in perspective - Ryzen could get 30% in the DIY consumer market by EOY but that is a very small number in terms of unit sales. All of their other sales rely on an OEM design whether its desktop or laptop or server. On the server and laptop business AMD went through long evaluation periods because they were basically not competing there in recent years. So as was mentioned in one of paul's articles, most of the growth in AMD is due to price so far. Unit sales are starting to ramp for server and laptop and the design wins are popping up so the unit growth is incoming. @stockolicious
 


Perhaps I am mistaken, but I thought market share in this case was a measure of sales at a particular time (e.g. 2nd quarter 2018) You seem to be suggesting that it's a measure of all the systems in use.
 


I have always considered it the in use systems as sales and owned market share are different things. You can have a spike for one year in sales but it doesn't always affect the overall market share you have.
 
"An AVERAGE life cycle of a computer is ~7 years at the moment"
Were did you pick this number? Why my computer don't last that long?
 
Math. It's hard? ..

Yeah, he may have said volumes need to be 250 percent higher. I don't know.
But they don't have to. And Tom´s hardware show know that.

For 12 to become 30 you need 18 more. Conveniently enough 18 is 1 1/2 as much as 12. Or 150% as much. Which mean it's very easy to figure out that 30% of the market is 250% as much as 12% which mean it's also 150% more than 12% not 250% more.

So AMD need to have volumes 150% more and selling 2.5 times as much as now is enough. They don't need to sell more than three times as much as they sell currently to reach it assuming they could take market share from Intel. If the market would grow or shrink the absolute numbers change.
 
Correct. And by the way: Intel losing 24% coming from 88% would obviously result in a sub 70% market share.
 
@redgarl as far as I can tell that sales chart is for CPUs sold as individual components. Sales for pre built machines could potentially exhibit very different trends. Especially if Intel is prioritizing OEM customers over retail customers as they attempt to deal with shortages.
 
No matter how much market share. I am extremely happy with my custom Ryzen rigg and Win 10. Never been better. I can run Cad, 3d, write, browse, render, download i/o , process FEA and play 4k games at the same time and there is still plenty headroom. No replacement for displacement.
 
There seems to be some confusion here. If someone is claiming that they expect AMD to have up to 30% "market share" in a particular quarter, they're obviously referring to sales during that quarter, not to the existing install-base suddenly seeing massive changes over the course of a few months, as that simply doesn't happen. It's certainly possible that AMD could see substantial gains relative to Intel for a particular quarter, particularly given Intel's current production issues.

Also, it depends on what market, exactly, we are referring to. If we are talking strictly about the sale of boxed processors at retail, then AMD seems to be doing quite well right now. Going by Amazon's "Best Sellers" list for boxed CPUs, we can see that 6 out of the top 10 best selling processors at their site are from AMD at the moment. And 2 of the 4 Intel processors in that top 10 are pre-orders for the 9000-series chips that were just announced, and are not even shipping yet...

https://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/pc/229189/
 
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