Hmm.. you mean people didn't line up in front of the stores to buy a retail copy when "32 bit" Windows 95 was launched, but they bought a new PC instead ?
That and this are completely different for some huge reasons:
1) There had been 32-bit capable systems sold for many years before Win95 was launched. In fact 32-bit hardware had been available for so many years that the vast majority of PC users were already capable of supporting 32-bit software, even if they didn't know it. Today however the percentage of people who can upgrade to a 64-bit OS without a new hardware purchase is very small because this push is running a heck of a lot faster.
2) There were 32-bit extensions to Windows before Win95. The appeak of Win95 was not 32-bitness, but the significant user interface improvements over proir versions of Windows. It was a massive OS improvement. However WinXP to WinXP-64 is a purely under the hood upgrade, much like the initial 32-bitness added to early versions of Windows. It won't be as cool. It will just allow you to fully utilize your 64-bit hardware.
So with even these two factors it makes judging the present based on the past rather unviable and imperfect.
it would be nice if it where a free upgrade/service pack like release, but knowing MS, its not that likely
I completely agree, on both counts. (That it would be nice and that it is highly unlikely.) I was highly pissed off when M$ forced people to 'upgrade' from Win95 to Win95b just to fix a number of bugs that were found as early on as the Win95 beta, and then did the same with Win98 and Win98SE. It's even arguable if Win98 was significantly different enough from Win95 that it warranted paying for a whole new version of Windows, but I'll grudgingly give M$ that one.
Frankly, I was surprised that they didn't find a way to force people to pay for WinXP SP1. I'm even more surprised that WinXP SP2 is likely to be free as well. It completely goes against M$'s SOHO track record. But then, considering that WinXP is more based on a workstation version of instead of a SOHO version of windows, maybe it shouldn't be as surprising as it is. I don't know. It's a tough call how to treat a product when you turn a workstation product into your SOHO product. :\
I would actually be impressed if M$ released the 64-bit WinXP upgrade as something like a free SP3 that turned WinXP into a hybrid 32/64 OS (much like Win3.11, but in a cleaner way). I also highly doubt that such will happen. M$ has been getting miffed at releasing so many significant improvements to XP for free.
What is worse though, is that your best bet might be to have both 32 and 64 bit windows versions for while, unless MS really improves their 64 bit version over the current beta.
I'd like to think that they might actually improve significantly over the beta. I won't be surprised if they don't, but I hope that they will. They've certainly had enough time. Other than playing Pong, what could they possibly be delaying it this long for then?
That is most likely true, but not because of your argument. Simply because I expect Intel and MS to release their 64 bit products more less at the same time (late this year). Since intel enjoys a 85% or something marketshare, its obvious the majority of 64 bit hardware won't be sold until intel sells it
Well, there is that too. :O
But if they had 64 bit P4's out today, I am not too sure XP64's release later this year would change that much. People would buy the 64 bit P4's today just as well, and hapily run XP32 on it.
Maybe, but I think that would depend a lot on how the 64-bit products were launched. If cheaper and equally fast products were still available (kind of like Northwood vs. Prescott or AXP vs. A64) then I don't think many would be buying 64-bit yet anyway. So long as 64-bit remains expensive you won't see too many people going for it, at least not until marketing folks at Dell and whatnot can say that it's actually a full 64-bit platform and maybe even lie like Apple did.
I don't think it will be very different from the windows 3.11->windows 95 transitions or windows9x->Win2k/XP. Some people will switch the same day and promise you that new OS is the best thing since sliced bread, other will complain, migrate slowly, point to lackluster software/driver support, say it aint worth it, tell you its slower, a memory hog,stick to the old windows for 5 years or longer. Also, some people will buy the retail copy, come home and discover it doesnt install on their "nearly new" $3.000 P4 system and they will be pissed.
Software support will follow a similar pattern, next year you'll see some native apps ported, but mostly everything will still be made available for XP32, other apps might just hop on the marketing bandwagon, and put "XP-64 ready" stickers on the boxes, even if its just 32 bit software,.. but in spite of all naysayers, in a few years, just about every new computer will be 64 bit capable and ship with a 64 bit OS, and slowly, high end apps will stop supporting the 32 bit legacy.
I think (hope?) that you're wrong here.
1) The shift from WinXP to WinXP-64 should be a hell of a lot smoother when it comes to drivers and software. If it's not, then M$ really failed to do their job and learn from past lessons.
2) WinXP to WinXP-64 will be a very minor OS functionality change. This is extremely different from Win3.11 to Win95, and just as different from Win9x to Win2K/XP. Those were extreme OS changes. This isn't nearly as extreme. It's really not much different than just having added the 32-bit extensions to Win3, except that this time it should be even smoother.
Sure, you'll still probably have the people having the problems that you mentioned, but this time around it <i>should</i> be a lot smoother than before. There shouldn't be nearly as many people having those problems, if anyone at all in some of those cases.
It may take 10 years or longer though (possibly forever) until virtually all software is 64 bit. but who cares anyway? I'm not waiting for a 64 bit version of Office or WinZIP, but for 64 bit encoders, games, and some olap tools.
That is another important factor to the transition. There were a lot of good reasons to go to 32-bit. There are a lot less good reasons to go to 64-bit. Oh sure, for some people there are still some good reasons, but the biggest really is just the memory handling, and that could have been fixed without a full 64-bit transition. So it will be interesting to see how this cycle actually goes. On the one hand the hardware saturation and the limitations are a lot less this time around so it should take much more time for majority acceptance as before. On the other hand the non-execution handling and the larger memory capacity may make the push into acceptance faster. Time will tell. But certainly a purist absolute 64-bitness is a long way away and is also highly unimportant to achieve. Hopefully if M$ pushes a purist 64-bit OS then it will be a lot better done than their 32-bit purist WinME was.
You know, it's strange, but I have this nagging feeling that the push into 64-bitness will come more from game developers than from any other direction, Intel and AMD, Dell and HP included. **ROFL**
<pre><b><font color=red>"Build a man a fire and he's warm for the rest of the evening.
Set a man on fire and he's warm for the rest of his life." - Steve Taylor</font color=red></b></pre><p>