AMD's problem now is the ancient Osbourne paradox.
I see the internal struggles. CEO says 15%. Marketing guy the next day says 40% or more. And then there's a "revised statement" that puts it back to the lower number.
About 40 years ago a company named after its founder, a guy named Osbourne, released the Osbourne 1. And it was pretty nice. Until he mentioned the soon to be arriving Osbourne 2, which was much better.
Everyone agreed with him, and then nobody bought the 1, since the 2 was going to be so much better, and Osbourne went out of business before getting the model 2 to market.
AMD now has an Osbourne problem. Why would anyone buy the 5000/6000 series cpus or the current 6000 series run of graphics cards, when waiting a little bit could get you the 7000 series of both, with far greater performance?
I know I was looking to build a 5950x system with a 6900 or 6950. But since there have been hints of fantastic performance and more cores with the higher end 7000 series, I'm going to wait for the next gen, and have a look at Intels 13th gen and 14th gen products.
Yeah, I know...this mindset can keep you waiting forever. But I can wait less than a year to see quantum leaps in cores and compute power.
I’m not sure that’s true, the industry, goes into long stagnations as well, look at how long Intel, was on 14nm. Recently things changed a lot, from 10nm, to 7nm, then 5nm, from DDR4, to DDR5, from PCIe3, to PCIe4, PCIe5, this is significant, memory bottlenecks and transistor numbers make a lot of difference. With the usual incremental changes, the law of diminishing returns applies, that makes little difference, just architectures, it’s been a long time since we changed from 32bit to 64bit.
When we get to 4nm, 3nm, the physics problems get very difficult, to go farther, DDR4 has been the standard, for a long time, so DDR5 will be the standard for a long time, PCIe3 was the standard for a long time. Things will slow down, in 9 months I went through a 300 series motherboard, to a 400 and then 500 series motherboard in 9 months as they became price available. Now we have 600 series motherboards, but with the new chip mount standard, DDR5, PCIe5, 700 series motherboards, will remain the standard for some time. You might remember when we had the Pentium chip, Windows 98, Explorer 4, once we’d solved the 2000 bug, nobody wanted to upgrade.
Hence the tech wreck, the law of diminishing returns, a huge tech boom, 97 to 2000, followed by much slower development, first falling off a cliff, then difficulty, finding the money, to advance things. After Windows XP, the software, became more confused, slower, so it wasn’t until the advent of the smartphone and then tablet, before things started to move again, the iPhone, Android, iPhone, Nexus 7. Because of the memory, flash changing the game, lower power consumption chips and RAM, the number of pixels soared, for a time, until that plateaued. Pixel numbers remained the same 2K, RAM and flash, advanced slowly, after M1, Qualcomm, expect things to slow, with Apple and windows, once the customer has something that’s not advancing rapidly, they don’t buy new stuff, my sister to my horror is using a 2011 Mac.
Sure I’m running a Mac mini M1, iPad mini 6, Apple TV, Xbox One X, 5G Android 12 phone, Chromebook tablet, 16GB RAM, PCIe3, i7, USB C mini PC, running Windows 11, but that’s not the average punter, they run the same old bomb, for half a decade or more, until something significant happens. A lot of them, don’t even update their software, look forward to things slowing down again, chip shortages ending, demand decreasing, as the pandemic weakens, other industries taking the high ground.
Real life changes, energy, transportation and food, leaving computers, in the background, until something fundamentally different comes along, VR/AR, optical computing, this is the peak, the rest of the world isn’t like us geeks, they don’t like upgrading, especially when there isn’t something really compelling.