[quotemsg=21210367,0,328798][quotemsg=21210216,0,1791309]This whole story made me think about how many fabless companies are enormously dependent on TSMC, even allowing for those that multi-source, they still need TSMC for simple volume and competitive pricing. [/quotemsg]
Just imagine how China could cripple Taiwan and force the world to back off, if they only seized TSMC and maybe a handful of other Taiwanese businesses. When China finally moves on Taiwan, they won't go for government or military targets - it'll be their economy. TSMC is probably the crown jewel.
And, with that one move, imagine the control they'd wield over the entire semiconductor industry. Sure, there's GloFo and Samsung, but it would take them years to ramp up capacity to handle all the business currently going to TSMC. Meanwhile, China would have near leading-edge fabs for all their homegrown chips, at government-subsidized prices.
This casts AMD's Chinese licensing agreements in a whole new light. Could be they're (also) a massive hedge against such a scenario.[/quotemsg]
Sure, but forcibly taking over Taiwan would make them an international pariah, likely resulting in sanctions (especially from wealthier first-world countries), so now who's buying the products coming off that factory floor? (And that assumes Taiwan doesn't destroy the plants rather then lose them).
Possibly non-Chinese companies that can make silicon elsewhere would probably be the real winners in your scenario.
If you look at Hong Kong and what happened there (and I promise you the Taiwanese do), it turns out that it's more about nationalistic jingoism and communist party power then is it concerned with cooking the proverbial golden goose.