News ASML: Only 60% of Chipmaking Tool Orders Can Be Met This Year

thisisaname

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I would have though the lead time on building the rest of the factory would mean there should be plenty of time to get the order in for the lithography tools.
From plan to a stage where you want the lithography tools should be around 2 years, so this does not change much?
 

InvalidError

Titan
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I would have though the lead time on building the rest of the factory would mean there should be plenty of time to get the order in for the lithography tools.
From plan to a stage where you want the lithography tools should be around 2 years, so this does not change much?
Depends on when during the entire fab planning process you wanted to place the order. You probably don't want to put the order in until you are 100% certain the site will be built and there is no chance of construction getting dropped for whatever reason, which could go a few months into construction. With the extra months lead time, if you want to be certain equipment will arrive on time, you may need to commit to a purchase before you even know whether all of the necessary construction permits will be granted.
 
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jp7189

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In any other industry there would be competitors coming out of the woodwork to get a piece of the multi billion $ pie that ASML is leaving on the windowsill.

Why does ASML have no competitors? Wizard magic? Aliens that want us to evolve but not too quickly? Seriously there nations that are be willing to burn unlimited resources to unlock the EUV secret. Why has no one else done it?
 

InvalidError

Titan
Moderator
Why does ASML have no competitors?
The same reason chip fabs are consolidating under 3-4 major corporations: the cost of independently making next-gen stuff has exceeded the amount of money any single company is willing to invest in their own process R&D, so the entire industry has consolidated its fundamental lithography R&D under ASML to avoid each having to spend billions re-inventing the DUV/EUV wheel and risking that whoever cracked EUV first would hold a death grip on the whole thing for the next 20 years.

There is no meaningful competition for ASML because every major chip manufacturer owns a stake in ASML to spare themselves the trouble, costs and risks of competing on fundamental R&D. It is highly unlikely the established players would be willing to support another. If another one comes up, it'll be Russia-China going homebrew to bypass sanctions.
 

thisisaname

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Depends on when during the entire fab planning process you wanted to place the order. You probably don't want to put the order in until you are 100% certain the site will be built and there is no chance of construction getting dropped for whatever reason, which could go a few months into construction. With the extra months lead time, if you want to be certain equipment will arrive on time, you may need to commit to a purchase before you even know whether all of the necessary construction permits will be granted.
True but if your going to spend a few Billion on the fab, where it is may well depend on who is going to pay you the most give you the best financial package rather than getting planning permission.
 

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