News ASML warns that more U.S. sanctions against China could have a major impact on its business

[Admin]

ASML's backlog in China totals tens of billions of dollars, but geopolitical tensions could impact the company's ability to fulfill it.

ASML warns that more U.S. sanctions against China could have a major impact on its business : Read more

 

[peachpuff]

Don't worry asml, intel will buy them all and finally produce something below 10nm.

 

[endocine]

China is only buying what it needs to copy the tech and make their own machines, it was a lost market in the long term regardless

 

[HaninTH]

China is only buying what it needs to copy the tech and make their own machines, it was a lost market in the long term regardless

This! It still baffles me that these companies operate under the notion that China will be a positive client. Their end goal is always to produce in-house to minimize US interference.

They may buy your products now, but if they think they will ever be limited, they will ensure they can produce it and not have to depend on imports.

The Global Market will only work if everyone plays along, and China refuses. I really don't blame them, at times.

 

[tomscomments]

China is only buying what it needs to copy the tech and make their own machines, it was a lost market in the long term regardless

china already has thousands of them but you can't read an article; it's not about copying, china has more patent than anyone
it's about industrial bottlenecks

""Furthermore, we face competition from alternative technological solutions or semiconductor manufacturing processes.""
witch means : ASML fears Chinese innovation. Chinese are silent. They may bring new processes (more advanced chipset patents or even photonic chips) sooner than we think. Canon is also trying to find a new life by actively working with some chinese tool makers
last but not least, i guess they are tool makers we don't know

 

[tooltalk]

china already has thousands of them but you can't read an article; ...

""Furthermore, we face competition from alternative technological solutions or semiconductor manufacturing processes.""
witch means : ASML fears Chinese innovation. Chinese are silent. They may bring new processes (more advanced chipset patents or even photonic chips) sooner than we think. Canon is also trying to find a new life by actively working with some chinese tool makers
last but not least, i guess they are tool makers we don't know

A lot of wishful thinking there. It is however true that China definitely has stepped up their theft/espionage efforts in recent years. The Chinese founders of XTAL who stole ASML's IP as former employee and fled to China after losing a US court case is now doing well under China's protection. ASML also reported other thefts by Chinese employees past couple of years. And let's get real, China's most cutting edge litho maker SMEE just announced 28nm to be delivered in 2024, after making lab-quality equipments all these years.
If you haven't yet noticed, there is de-risking under way. Japan has already changed their policy on equipment collaboration/export with China last year, which disallows all, but legacy nodes.

 

[ThomasKinsley]

Set politics aside. Sanctions will inevitably split China from the rest of the world. Without China as a customer, the West's technology is set to get even more expensive.

 

[tooltalk]

Set politics aside. Sanctions will inevitably split China from the rest of the world. Without China as a customer, the West's technology is set to get even more expensive.

I don't get this logic. Why would they get more expensive? I think many in the West still love to overstate the impact of anything China. China produces less than 10% of all semi-chips produced globally and accounts just about 20% of chip consumption. The average cost of transistors rapidly declinedwith or without China since the first invention of transistors in the 1940's, until it more or less stalled after 28nm, released in 2011. It's technical progerssion and commodification of technology that allow cheaper chips, not China.

 

[ThomasKinsley]

I don't get this logic. Why would they get more expensive? I think many in the West still love to overstate the impact of anything China. China produces less than 10% of all semi-chips produced globally and accounts just about 20% of chip consumption. The average cost of transistors rapidly declinedwith or without China since the first invention of transistors in the 1940's, until it more or less stalled after 28nm, released in 2011. It's technical progerssion and commodification of technology that allow cheaper chips, not China.

China is reportedly 22% of AMD's external sales and 27% of Intel's in 2022. If these companies lose that market, then they lose that profit. Less profit means less research and development, a smaller supply chain, fewer advanced machines, and higher prices. To put it another way, today's global companies will become tomorrow's regional companies. Before the separation was called the Iron and Bamboo curtain. Now we're already seeing an economic curtain of sanctions being unfurled. It's bound to have an effect on the global economy, and Western leaders have already told their civilians to prepare for higher prices as a result.

 

[drajitsh]

China is reportedly 22% of AMD's external sales and 27% of Intel's in 2022. If these companies lose that market, then they lose that profit. Less profit means less research and development, a smaller supply chain, fewer advanced machines, and higher prices. To put it another way, today's global companies will become tomorrow's regional companies. Before the separation was called the Iron and Bamboo curtain. Now we're already seeing an economic curtain of sanctions being unfurled. It's bound to have an effect on the global economy, and Western leaders have already told their civilians to prepare for higher prices as a result.

That that is going to happen in any case. Read the article about longsoon CPU

 

[NinoPino]

This! It still baffles me that these companies operate under the notion that China will be a positive client. Their end goal is always to

in fact it's really strange for a company to consider a good customer someone who makes 1/4 of his business.

produce in-house to minimize US interference.

They may buy your products now, but if they think they will ever be limited, they will ensure they can produce it and not have to depend on imports.

As every other company in the world (funds permitting).

The Global Market will only work if everyone plays along, and China refuses. I really don't blame them, at times.

The "Global Market" works only if every country have the same amount of resources. And this was not and will never be true.

 

[gg83]

China is only buying what it needs to copy the tech and make their own machines, it was a lost market in the long term regardless

Exactly. They will have the greatest best most produced 28nm node of all time! Without a care towards efficiency, they can probably shrink a 28nm down to "2nm" where 2% of the wafer is viable.

 

[litho guy]

Even with machines to copy, it takes many years to build a supply chain and an army of people to copy them. China will eventually obtain that, but before the restrictions they were happy to buy them from ASML because that was just easier.

Meanwhile, outside if China, chip suppliers that have ASML equipment are happily selling slightly detuned chips to China where the Chinese domestic competition has been eliminated.

 

[hasten]

I must say if there is one organization I am truly concerned for their well being it is the VOC, oops I mean ASML. Because the VOC have it so hard with the completely unchallenged marketplace it must be hard to make insane profits. I did it again, ASML not VOC!

 

[Pierce2623]

Does ASML not realize that just sending those machines to China in the first place means there will be Chinese copies made the very instant it’s technically feasible for them to do so? In a year or so, China will be making fab machines capable of 28nm in house. Literally the only thing slowing down the process is the ability to manufacture some of the finer pieces.

 

[LuxZg]

I don't get all these brainwashed people. For how long has China been buying western tech? And it was happily buying AMD, Intel, Nvidia chips, and yes some (relatively old) ASML machines for mass produced cheap chips. And for years, nah, DECADES, this system worked just fine.

Now think hard, really hard... When did China start actually investing into chip tech, whole toolchain, software tools, etc? Hint: after the orange guy started chip/trade war.

So, trust me, to ASML this is a good customer, and a good relationship. It still is. If US had this ban for year or two, China would never go for the investment. It's hard work, why do it. It's not "copy once" and done, it's something to keep pushing forever.

Yeah, NOW - it's probably too late. Whole world started restructuring away from "we will have ASML make machines and Taiwan & S.Korea producing chips". Now everyone wants to have their own "everything". Yet, as I said, it's still a very hard work. Why else would ASML be holding like 90% of the pie. And ASML is right to keep pushing for their market share. Eventually a lot of the investment will fail, or will give up, and return to ASML. It's not like they'll sell 1 machine then China will copy it. They'll sell dozens and earn billions, and by the time any copying is successful they'll be ahead with new gen, sell dozena again, and so on. It's still better then just crossing China off the list forever because some politician half across the world told them to do so.

Anyway, I won't stick for the rest of this conversation. It always goes "Chinese will steal everything, copy everything, they're bad"... So boring to hear that repeatedly. At the same time these very same people keep supporting other "copycats". As much as I know, everything in this world was invented somewhere first. Does it make everyone else copycats and thiefs? I don't hear how AMD stole DLSS from Nvidia, then reiterated and changed and made it their own. Nope, that's acceptable. I don't hear how so many of today's cars are "stolen" from German Otto/Benz. We couls do this all day long. But it only happens when someone is from China. So boring. Find another scapegoat already.

 

[Vixzer]

ASML's backlog in China totals tens of billions of dollars, but geopolitical tensions could impact the company's ability to fulfill it.

ASML warns that more U.S. sanctions against China could have a major impact on its business : Read more

geopolitical stupidity is always getting in the way of free Markets... sad.

 

[Yoinksss]

By Kanthaswamy Balasubramaniam

How disastrous will things be for Intel and AMD in the Chinese market when China's Loongson chips catch up? Will they lodge a complaint to US congress about China not buying their stuff anymore?

Take Huawei and NVDIA

NVDIA produces the world's best quality chips. Unfortunately China is the only Non European or Japanese or American market that can effectively buy these Chips and leapfrog themselves and also the evolution of these Chips to the next generation at a much faster rate

Now that NVDIA doesn't sell its top chips to China and sells a watered down version, the Chinese are looking towards local suppliers and manufacturers because the Quality edge is no longer as significant as it was when NVDIA was selling its best Chips

Huawei and Tencent slowly fill the space with their Chips that are certainly 95% or even on par with NVDIAs watered down version but almost 35% lower in cost

As more and more Chips of Huawei and Tencent sell, it's likely both entities will evolve their Chip designs and manufacturing at a much faster rate than NVDIA can because NVDIA doesn't have access to one of the world's top markets anymore for it's best Chips

NVDIA instead gets a handout from the Federal Government of $ 3.5 Billion a year as part of the CHIPS act plus a subsidy of $ 2 Billion a year to make up for it's potential Chinese losses

So NVDIA doesn't even need an alternate market for it's best Chips

It's Subsidy plus it's G7 Markets are enough

However the EVOLUTION is going to be slowed down

Chinese Chips will evolve faster because they have access to the world's fastest growing market

This isn't new

Protectionism over Economics has always been an unmitigated disaster

We Indians had some of the finest toolmaking industries in the world in the 1950s

We had excellent steel working factories

We made good quality machines

Then in 1977, we introduced PROTECTIONISM and cut out imports.

Without COMPETITION, our entire production quality crashed and crashed and crashed some more

By 2010, our Steel, our Tools, our Machines were three levels more inferior to global standards

It's why China encourages CUT THROAT COMPETITION and doesn't reciprocate by banning Apple from it's markets or other brands

Competition and Free Market Access is the only way to make Technology grow

Sadly the Dumbo leaders in the West can't see this Problem because they are ELECTED and so automatically chosen for factors other than BRAINS and ABILITY

They know neither Economics nor Science (And apparently No Geography either)

Ultimately Chinese Chips will replace Western Chips and have the same or better quality

It's Economics and that hasn't changed for millennia

Once it's likely Sumerians were awed at the Astonishing weaponry of the Old Egyptians and their technology

Likewise once the Americans were awed at the British Technology like Radars and Spinning Jennys

 

[tomscomments]

A lot of wishful thinking there. It is however true that China definitely has stepped up their theft/espionage efforts in recent years. The Chinese founders of XTAL who stole ASML's IP as former employee and fled to China after losing a US court case is now doing well under China's protection. ASML also reported other thefts by Chinese employees past couple of years. And let's get real, China's most cutting edge litho maker SMEE just announced 28nm to be delivered in 2024, after making lab-quality equipments all these years.
If you haven't yet noticed, there is de-risking under way. Japan has already changed their policy on equipment collaboration/export with China last year, which disallows all, but legacy nodes.

all this are facts you can check
IF SMEE can do 28 nm, it is not wishful thinking in 2024. It is already a huge step
ASML ceo expecting chinese to have asml equivalent is not wishfull thinking, it is a dutch ceo statement
If they can produce their own eda, it is not wishful thinking
You don't know eaxactly japan implication, they need customers, their economy fell in 2023
De-risking is a political term that does mean nothing in high tech.
Their are already building photonic chips plants
Building their own supercomputer with own architecture is not wishful thinking, it is a fact (sehnwei)
replacing russian servers by loongarch is not wishfull thinking, it has began
China producing 8 times more patents than EU is not wishfull thinking, it is a fact published in wto, you can check it
chiplet patents by huawei (and euv) are not wishfull thinking, these are patents produced some years ago

Leading in batteries, that was not wishfull thinking that was fact
ignoring this is wishfull thinking

https://tind.wipo.int/record/47082
the wipo is not wishfull thinking, your comments are

We should not confuse our personal opinions with analysis, two different things. Analysis is cold.

 

[tooltalk]

Perhaps you'v and I wonder if you've ever heard of the term 3 "lost decades"? all this are facts you can check
IF SMEE can do 28 nm, it is not wishful thinking in 2024. It is already a huge step

A lot of laughable claims based on misguided nationalism here:

No worries, SMEE's 28nm is mostly Japanese tech with the Japanese precision-machinary/optical equipments at work here. Just like SMIC's recent 7/5nm, it demonstrates how China still depends on foreign "expertise" and equipments.

If they can produce their own eda, it is not wishful thinking

Sure, EDAs are much easier to copy/steal. I already mentioned Xtal Inc.

Leading in batteries, that was not wishfull thinking that was fact
ignoring this is wishfull thinking

A lot more wishful thinking here: Since SONY's first successful commercialization of lithium ion batteries (aka, LIB) in the early 90's, the Japanese and the Koreans led the industry. Contrary to popular myth, China is still many years behind. China was very late to the energy storage competition and got stuck with low-end, inferior LIB called LFP for export, which due its low energy density efficiency and weight, is mostly limited to stationary energy storage (aka, ESS) or entry-level, low-range EVs. That's in spite of the fact that China banned the Japanese/Korean battery competitors from accessing China's NEV market since 2015 under Xi's Made-In-China 2025 to dominate the EV battery race early on, in addition to myriad of other highly discriminitory/anticompetitive practices.

China's key advantage in EV batteries is in raw material/refining supply-chain, which allows them mass-manufacturing. China dominates this largely because most developed countries, even as their EV transition is bottlenecked by the battery supplies to this date, don't want to get their hands dirty, or talk to dictators in non-democratic countries, or mine cobalts amongst 12 year artisanal miners in war-torn DRC. It's however well to remember that China is also very much dependent on upstream raw materials suppliers from Australia and Chile, and Indonesia.

 

[spongiemaster]

Don't worry asml, intel will buy them all and finally produce something below 10nm.

Meteor Lake was released last year.

 

[tooltalk]

China is reportedly 22% of AMD's external sales and 27% of Intel's in 2022. If these companies lose that market, then they lose that profit. Less profit means less research and development, a smaller supply chain, fewer advanced machines, and higher prices.

Sure, Apple is expected to lose iPhone sales going forward -- now, based on your flawed logic, do you also foresee Apple raising iPhones prices just based on lower sales in China?

To put it another way, today's global companies will become tomorrow's regional companies.

Most companies have one or two wonder products throughout their lifespan, but don't last forever. Otherwise, a lot of nonsensical BS here.

It's bound to have an effect on the global economy, and Western leaders have already told their civilians to prepare for higher prices as a result.

I find hilarious that wumaos are trying to push this narrative that the world without China would be in a inflationary spiral. Yes, China does have tremendous effect on global economy -- the COVID-19 past 3-4 years has shown how disruptive it is in global trade/supply-chain not seen since the WW2. I'm just old enough to have lived in a world without China where technological advances brought wonders and lowered prices for consumers. And I still live in a world where technological advances will bring better products at lower price with or without China.