let's all slow down a bit and not resort to partisan bashing.
First, talking about P4 performance at this point is a waste of time. Every benchmark availible now was done on an engineering sample, so the scores are not indicative of the true performance of the chip. Remember the early Athlon benchmarks (the whole Shakry's thing anyone?), where early reports indicated horrible performance, which completely changed when release parts were tested. So P4 performace is an unknown right now. That said, I think it is reasonable to assume from the architecture of the chip that it is not going to be the world's best chip, in terms of raw performance. Intel's design team made a bunch of tradeoffs in building the chip, which resulted in a longer pipeline and higher latency (ie, lower performance in most apps) in return for a much higher ramp. Which means that clock for clock, the Palomino is going to clean the P4's clock, but the P4 is going to ramp higher. I would bet that benchmark number between the fastest AMD and Intel offerings remain pretty much even, despite the disparity in clockspeed.
Second, the athlon architecture is not out of steam by a long shot. 1.2 was a true speedgrade, no voltage tweak. Which I would bet means that the current core will go to at least 1.4 with voltage tweeks and huge heat-disipation. Then you throw the Mustang core into the equation. With it's improved heat disipation, I would say that it will hit 1.6+ And then there is the Hammer core which is coming along nicely (at least according to AMD), and which should scale much higher.
Third, it doesn't matter if AMD outperforms Intel, because Intel will always outsell AMD. For at least the next 20 years. It all comes down the fab space. So technically, as long as Intel can keep the Mhz up and the chips flowing off the belts (something they have not been able to do recently), they will be able to dominate the market. Period.
Fourth, I think the emphasis on MHZ is going to end soon. 2GHZ is coming up much to fast after 1GHZ and people are going to start getting frustrated and confused. No one is going to be excited about 2GHZ, it is just going to be one more number. So I think that actual performance is going to start mattering more. In that case, maybe Alpha will finally sell. hehe.
That's all for now.
CrimsonCor
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