News China could be the world's top semiconductor foundry hub by 2030 — despite US curbs, nation to hold 30% of global installed capacity, surpassing Ta...

[Admin]

China is projected to become the biggest manufacturer of semiconductors by 2030, but how advanced will these chips be?

China could be the world's top semiconductor foundry hub by 2030 — despite US curbs, nation to hold 30% of global installed capacity, surpassing Ta... : Read more

 

[Mindstab Thrull]

This doesn't surprise me. China already supplied a lot, and then America saying "we don't want your cooties!" gave China extra incentive to push homegrown. 2030 makes sense if you also keep in mind that they have over 17% of the planet's population and they want their own people to BUY CHINESE!
Also keep in mind, this isn't a question of "competitive" per se, but of "good enough", "obtainable", and a good-enough price.

 

[erazog]

Sure but on mature/old nodes only, they are trapped on 7nm and using that hardware to be below with it via the double pattering method is economically unsustainable which is what got Intel into so much trouble as the yields are terrible.

Most estimate's are it will take them 15 years to catch up where the current western + allied semiconductor manufacturing is taking place and they aren't standing still either so will be pushing ahead with more advanced nodes.

 

[phead128]

they are trapped on 7nm and using that hardware to be below with it via the double pattering method is economically unsustainable which is what got Intel into so much trouble as the yields are terrible.

TSMC initially used DUV lithography to make 7nm with a yield of 76% before it later transition to EUV lithography for 7nm. SMIC is rumored to achieve decent yields at 7nm DUV comparable to TSMC yields. Intel's failure on 7nm DUV is their own unique story.

Huawei has been selling tens of millions of units of phones, tablets, etc... equipped with 7nm chip, which proves that it's scaling 7nm via serial production very well, and the 'terrible yield' story has been overblown.

Most estimate's are it will take them 15 years to catch up where the current western + allied semiconductor manufacturing is taking place and they aren't standing still either so will be pushing ahead with more advanced nodes.

China's making rapid progress towards domestically developed EUV lithography prototype that could run by end of 2025, I would say 15 years is too pessimistic.

China’s In-House EUV Machines Reportedly Entering Trial Production In Q3 2025, Utilizing An Approach That Offers A Simpler, Efficient Design; SMIC & Huawei To Benefit Greatly

Huawei and SMIC could wave goodbye to their chip production woes because China is reportedly kicking off EUV trial production later this year

wccftech.com

 

[Constellar]

I don't see how the author can say that the China vs USA rivalry can be "up in the air" when every expert worth his salt is saying that China is at least two generations behind the USA in chip design. They were two generations behind in 2021 and they're still two generations behind. China will never solve the EUV problem, either, unless they steal ASML's patents or use the equivalent of a particle accelerator for their EUV light source, with the first solution being unacceptable and the second solution being highly impractical.
Tom of Tom's Hardware, face it. Our controls on China's semiconductor ambitions really have been successful. Admit it now or admit it later, but one way or another you will admit it...

 

[WhteTrash]

It was only 2 years ago when western médias falsely claimed that China semi conductors industry would collapse because of the sanction and they would be stuck with 30nm...

Pretty sure I could even find an article on it on TH.

 

[The Historical Fidelity]

This is incorrect and outdated information. Thanks to former ASML head scientist Lin Nan, China has achieved a major breakthrough in LPP-EUV light source using solid-state pulse lasers that are capable of achieving kilowatt-level power output and expected to be 10X more powerful in the future. China already has EUV lasers figured out, you are just outdated and confidently incorrect.

Former ASML head scientist Lin Nan drives China’s latest EUV breakthrough

Former ASML head scientist Lin Nan drives China’s latest EUV breakthrough

Non-paywall version: https://archive.ph/FwTFP


Unfortunately, the CEO of ASML Peter Wennink disagrees with your assessment. He says "Never say never" when asked about EUV in China:


The CEO of ASML thinks China will inevitably get EUV, it will just take time. You think you know more than ASML's top boss?

Read that article again. They do not already have “EUV Lasers figured out”. Their laser’s conversion efficiency is ~50% worse than a similar laser system built in 2007 at the university of Florida, and their pulse frequency is far below what is required and is the hardest thing to increase due to limitations on the charge capacitor bank’s ability to replenish, release, and repeat in rapid succession. They even admit that the laser will be limited to mask and wafer inspections unless they can break through said barriers.

 

[acadia11]

Well, while US politicians imagine an American cheap labor force unskilled to make the processors of the future but non-elitist and uneducated, China will gladly pick up the slack.

 

[Constellar]

Read that article again. They do not already have “EUV Lasers figured out”. Their laser’s conversion efficiency is ~50% worse than a similar laser system built in 2007 at the university of Florida, and their pulse frequency is far below what is required and is the hardest thing to increase due to limitations on the charge capacitor bank’s ability to replenish, release, and repeat in rapid succession. They even admit that the laser will be limited to mask and wafer inspections unless they can break through said barriers.

They just didn't understand how hard it is to make a hi-powered, single-mode semiconductor laser, let alone such a laser at a necessary frequency.
Multi mode lasers are kinda easy, especially with long wavelengths like 807nm or the blue 465nm's.
But, an EUV single mode laser at super high poweer output? It just ain't happening, kinda like China's EUV litho ambitions.

 

[Constellar]

This is incorrect and outdated information. Thanks to former ASML head scientist Lin Nan, China has achieved a major breakthrough in LPP-EUV light source using solid-state pulse lasers that are capable of achieving kilowatt-level power output and expected to be 10X more powerful in the future. China already has EUV lasers figured out, you are just outdated and confidently incorrect.

Former ASML head scientist Lin Nan drives China’s latest EUV breakthrough

Former ASML head scientist Lin Nan drives China’s latest EUV breakthrough

Non-paywall version: https://archive.ph/FwTFP


Unfortunately, the CEO of ASML Peter Wennink disagrees with your assessment. He says "Never say never" when asked about EUV in China:


The CEO of ASML thinks China will inevitably get EUV, it will just take time. You think you know more than ASML's top boss?

The guy is trying to sell his wares to China, which now he can set a $10 billion price tag on an EUV machine and it would still sell like hot cakes in China. Therefore, he'll say anything to that effect. Heck, Jensen Huang is saying the same basic thing about Huawei.
It's a manipulation tactic aimed at our govt, that's all...

 

[passivecool]

This is part of chinas long-published roadmap back to world leadership. It's been a few thousand years and they seem keen and dedicated to swing the pendulum back. CN made a 50-year plan and now follow it, maybe correcting, but unwavering, rigorously, relentlessly, amorally. Solid project management on a gnp social-economical level. You can disapprove of the morals and the means, but they have proven that they get stuff done. Look at the curve of the last 20 years.

If i were an alien advisor from another galaxy, i would say: 'West, get your sh*t together. Decide what you want the world to look like in 50 years and stop squabbling about the petty details!"

 

[phead128]

Read that article again. They do not already have “EUV Lasers figured out”. Their laser’s conversion efficiency is ~50% worse than a similar CO2 laser system, and only 30% less than solid-state laser built in 2007 at the university of Florida, which is still globally advanced level as per research article.

Fixed that for you, as you misquoted the article. 3.4% CE is "globally advanced" level of efficiency already, the article and original research paper clearly states this.

their pulse frequency is far below what is required and is the hardest thing to increase due to limitations on the charge capacitor bank’s ability to replenish, release, and repeat in rapid succession.

"Pulse frequency" rate is not reported in this article nor in the original research paper. Maybe ask your AI tool to stop hallucinating BS and making things up.

They even admit that the laser will be limited to mask and wafer inspections unless they can break through said barriers.

Again, that is huge misquote. The article doesn’t say the laser is limited to inspection. It states:

“.....suitable for EUV exposure validation and mask inspection.”

The article says the system is suitable for EUV exposure validation and mask inspection, exposure validation means simulating actual lithography, not just inspection.

It’s a lab-scale platform, but already globally advanced, with 3% CE and plans to reach 6%. The necessary kilowatt-class lasers are commercially available, so this is a real step toward full lithography use.......not something inherently limited.

The guy is trying to sell his wares to China, which now he can set a $10 billion price tag on an EUV machine and it would still sell like hot cakes in China. Therefore, he'll say anything to that effect. Heck, Jensen Huang is saying the same basic thing about Huawei.
It's a manipulation tactic aimed at our govt, that's all...

Dr. Lin Nan is the Former Head of Light Source Technology at ASML in Netherlands.

Dr. Lin Nan now works for the Chinese Academy of Sciences, which is basically the Chinese government.

Continue man, it's just so fun. Say it one more time, "China will never...."

 

[LordVile]

But it’s mainly old, cheaper technology with the most advanced nodes being in Taiwan. China is 10 years behind in development which also puts it behind Korea, Japan and the US.

The question is what’s the point in all that capacity that no one wants to use? It’s all just to go into cheap ewaste and low margin things like TVs and fridges.

 

[The Historical Fidelity]

Fixed that for you, as you misquoted the article. 3.4% CE is "globally advanced" level of efficiency already, the article and original research paper clearly states this.


"Pulse frequency" rate is not reported in this article nor in the original research paper. Maybe ask your AI tool to stop hallucinating BS and making things up.


Again, that is huge misquote. The article doesn’t say the laser is limited to inspection. It states:


The article says the system is suitable for EUV exposure validation and mask inspection, exposure validation means simulating actual lithography, not just inspection.

It’s a lab-scale platform, but already globally advanced, with 3% CE and plans to reach 6%. The necessary kilowatt-class lasers are commercially available, so this is a real step toward full lithography use.......not something inherently limited.


Dr. Lin Nan is the Former Head of Light Source Technology at ASML in Netherlands.

Dr. Lin Nan now works for the Chinese Academy of Sciences, which is basically the Chinese government.

Continue man, it's just so fun. Say it one more time, "China will never...."

Wrong, and editing my comment with your disinformation is very inappropriate.

Your “research article” is filled with marketing fluff and hopeful thinking, I wouldn’t trust anything beyond the actual experimental data they do provide. Everything else is classified as “forward-facing statements” which in stock market settings will always come with warnings like: “these statements are not substantiated and in no way reflect any real world outcome that may occur in the future, either expressed, or implied. Use this information at your own risk.”

Also, “CO2 lasers deliver more than 10 kilowatts of power and high repetition frequency, compared to the lower performance of solid-state based platforms.” straight from the article….

And my knowledge in solid-state laser systems is how I know pulse frequency (IE: repetition frequency) is a big barrier to raise to the levels needed to replace CO2 lasers in EUV systems.

 

[Reace]

Another day, another Tom's Hardware article regurgitating false Chinese propaganda.

 

[phead128]

Another day, another Tom's Hardware article regurgitating false Chinese propaganda.

The original source is French semiconductor market research group, YOLE Group, which is a respected group based on Lyon, France.

I don't understand how people can simply dismiss this without reading the original source.