News China seizing TSMC would be 'devastating' for U.S. economy, Commerce Secretary says

[Admin]

If China captures Taiwan and TSMC, this will be a major blow for U.S.-based companies and economy, which is why U.S. invests in its own semiconductor production, says Gina Raimondo.

China seizing TSMC would be 'devastating' for U.S. economy, Commerce Secretary says : Read more

 

[pug_s]

What a load of garbage. If the Chinese want these to 'seize' TSMC so bad, then why did they spent tens of billions on buying litography machines to be self sufficient?

 

[jkflipflop98]

The truth is somewhere between the lines.

In reality, TSMC isn't really THAT far ahead of everyone else. The rest of the world would continue on just fine. The price of luxury electronics may go up for a time, but it would stabilize in a few years.

If China seized the equipment and facilities, it would still be nearly useless without the people that know how to actually use them. They require a tremendous amount of maintenance and knowledge to operate. Something you don't just get by having the equipment alone.

And really, how exactly would Taiwan defend TSMC from the United States military? It's pretty hard to stop a couple of precision-guided warheads from doing what they're going to do.

 

[Alvar "Miles" Udell]

Even if China did seize them, they'd be obsolete in a few years as Samsung, Intel, and TSMC's other fabs continue into the angstrom era.

And you know AMD and nVidia would love it to happen so they could triple the price of their products.

 

[usertests]

China seizing TSMC would be 'devastating' for U.S. economy, Commerce Secretary says

Umm... don't tell them that! Lol

 

[Notton]

It's a house hearing. She's giving a situation report of how things are currently.
Obviously, you have to include worst and best case scenarios, otherwise you'd be kind of useless at the job.
The lawmakers can then decide how to go forth from there.

 

[scottslayer]

The inevitable massive war would be even worse for everyone than the hypothetical economic impact

 

[Li Ken-un]

TSMC fabs built in the U.S. would be equally hobbled. The invaders won’t have the equipment/knowhow. The U.S. doesn’t have the work ethic.

It’s only TSMC as run by Taiwan that’s cutting edge—and potentially the one they build in Japan. Work culture is the other ingredient in their secret sauce.

 

[peachpuff]

The U.S. doesn’t have the work ethic.

Do you want to work 12 hours a day, 6 days a week?

 

[redgarl]

China can't do it. They would turn the rest of the world against them and they would sabotage their goal of becoming the first economy in the world.

Not to mention invading would destroy the fabs and China would not benefit for any of it unless they want to sabotage the world supply chain.

In the end, they would be even more isolated and would never get their hands on new lithography technology.

 

[redgarl]

The inevitable massive war would be even worse for everyone than the hypothetical economic impact

Pretty much...

If it comes to this, the semiconductor economy would be the least of the world's worries.

 

[Amdlova]

Nuke it! Before it's too late

 

[Li Ken-un]

Do you want to work 12 hours a day, 6 days a week?

Would either answer I give change the veracity of my original statement? There is a price for everything.

Whether I’d pay that price would depend on the job I’m working. But then again, there’s the saying: “the quickest way to ruin a fun hobby is to make it a job.”

 

[anonymousdude]

TSMC fabs built in the U.S. would be equally hobbled. The invaders won’t have the equipment/knowhow. The U.S. doesn’t have the work ethic.

It’s only TSMC as run by Taiwan that’s cutting edge—and potentially the one they build in Japan. Work culture is the other ingredient in their secret sauce.

The Japan fab is only slated for 7nm/6nm as far as I remember. As for why the cutting edge fabs are only located in Taiwan has much less to do with work ethic and more about geopolitics.

 

[peachpuff]

Would either answer I give change the veracity of my original statement? There is a price for everything.

Whether I’d pay that price would depend on the job I’m working. But then again, there’s the saying: “the quickest way to ruin a fun hobby is to make it a job.”

So no? Right, just like everyone else, tsmc can go fcuk themselves if they think they can bring that kind of slavery to this side of the continent.

 

[A Stoner]

Water is wet.

Yes, TSMC is far ahead of the rest of the world, TSMC supplies over 90% of the most advanced processors the world uses.

TSMC has the largest brain trust in chip manufacturing and drives the vast majority of advances.

It takes years to properly train chip manufacturing employees as Arizona I think it is is demonstrating as they try to get those plants efficiently manufacturing chips.

If China takes TSMC by force and either kills off or takes prisoner all those TSMC employees, it will be devastating to the world.

 

[NinoPino]

Do you want to work 12 hours a day, 6 days a week?

It was 24h a day and 7 day a week. 😀

 

[NinoPino]

Journalists repeat the same story from 4 years, again and again, and everytime with more alarmed tone. This makes it sound like someone really hope that China one day or another will destroy TSMC.
It is a nonsense for China to halt TSMC, like destroying some fabs can change something relevant in the world balances.
It is a silly and naive way of thinking.

 

[NinoPino]

Water is wet.

Yes, TSMC is far ahead of the rest of the world, TSMC supplies over 90% of the most advanced processors the world uses.

For definition of "most advanced" I think they supply 100%.

TSMC has the largest brain trust in chip manufacturing and drives the vast majority of advances.

Here I do not agree. They are good in building the silicon, that is only a little part of the process. Designing chips and building machinery is also very very hard and in my view is more complex.

It takes years to properly train chip manufacturing employees as Arizona I think it is is demonstrating as they try to get those plants efficiently manufacturing chips.

Agree.

If China takes TSMC by force and either kills off or takes prisoner all those TSMC employees,...

To think they could kill employees is ridiculous.

it will be devastating to the world.

Imho the world wouldn't change one iota.

 

[helper800]

TSMC fabs built in the U.S. would be equally hobbled. The invaders won’t have the equipment/knowhow. The U.S. doesn’t have the work ethic.

It’s only TSMC as run by Taiwan that’s cutting edge—and potentially the one they build in Japan. Work culture is the other ingredient in their secret sauce.

This is a load of garbage. The US has one of the most efficient work forces in the world. The specific term relevant here is workforce productivity. We produce more stuff per unit of time than every single other large economy in the world. There are only specific small economies, not Taiwan, that have more efficient workers than the US, meaning this usually is impossible to scale like the US has.

 

[newtechldtech]

Total and utter rubbish. USA would never allow such a risk. this is all a "bait" for China and political game. it is all done on purpose from the beginning ... I hope there is not another "Gulf of Tonkin" plan. people around the world are SICK of this and we are not idiots anymore. we will STOP it USA . no WW3 ! The people will stop it.

 

[Li Ken-un]

This is a load of garbage. The US has one of the most efficient work forces in the world. The specific term relevant here is workforce productivity. We produce more stuff per unit of time than every single other large economy in the world. There are only specific small economies, not Taiwan, that have more efficient workers than the US, meaning this usually is impossible to scale like the US has.

I would love to say “back at you,” but I am not an economist. What I have been taught by my professors and taken to heart is to be skeptical and question what’s been presented.

So let me ask you this: which of the many metrics is being used to measure workforce productivity? There is more than one. But judging by your remarks, you take GDP to be the end-all-be-all of productivity superiority.

The topic’s led me down a rabbit hole. And I―for one―am skeptical that we are amongst the most productive. That’s because it’s not reflected in what I see around me. GDP might not be as a great measure as prescribed by the zeitgeist. It looks great on paper, but what does it really tell us?

Indeed, the medical expenditures resulting from these health crises also boosted GDP. Americans were spending twice as much per person on health care as the French but had lower life expectancy.

 

[helper800]

So let me ask you this: which of the many metrics is being used to measure workforce productivity? There is more than one. But judging by your remarks, you take GDP to be the end-all-be-all of productivity superiority.

GDP is the total amount of goods produced and services given depicted as dollars usually accounted for by year usually by country, or region. Workforce productivity is the measure of worker efficiency via calculating the amount of products made and services rendered by a specific group of workers per unit time. I am also not an economist, but do have a business degree for whatever that is worth. There are many different types of productivity, however, I believe this is the relevant one. I am not aware of a productivity metric that only accounts for goods produced by workers per unit time, but admittedly that would be an even more specific metric to qualify or discredit my claim. I could very well be incorrect, I am not infallible.

It looks great on paper, but what does it really tell us?

See the above definition I laid out or seek other 3rd party definitions of GDP and workforce productivity.

Indeed, the medical expenditures resulting from these health crises also boosted GDP. Americans were spending twice as much per person on health care as the French but had lower life expectancy.

That does not seem very relevant in this context. If you believe that GDP is not an important metric because of its derivatives then workforce productivity is not very useful to convince you either because its based upon similar statistics. Good luck with the rabbit-hole, I am genuinely interested to see if you find sharp sticks to poke holes in my argument.

 

[Li Ken-un]

Good luck with the rabbit-hole, I am genuinely interested to see if you find sharp sticks to poke holes in my argument.

Oh no. That was for my own curiosity. You see, I too did not know about the history of today’s socioeconomic ills and this burgeoning movement away from measuring national “success” by GDP.

I also do not aspire to be this guy: https://xkcd.com/386/

Indeed, the medical expenditures resulting from these health crises also boosted GDP. Americans were spending twice as much per person on health care as the French but had lower life expectancy.

That does not seem very relevant in this context.

It was one of the examples, but in the vein of “GDP doesn’t capture needless products consumed within the nation itself at an inflated price.”

This might be a better one:

Kuznets repeatedly warned, however, that the GDP only measured market activity and should not be mistaken for a metric of social or even economic well-being. The figure included many goods and services that were harmful (including, he believed, armaments) or useless (financial speculation) and excluded many essential ones that were free (such as caregiving by homemakers).

The overall point made by the author is that GDP figures are just accounting tricks, sleight of hand.

 

[lvt]

This won't happen because they will blow up the TSMC facilities before leaving it.