News China to lead semiconductor industry expansion with 18 new fabs in 2024 —global chipmaking capacity to reach record heights

[Admin]

The SEMI World Fab Forecast report predicts that China will lead the global semiconductor industry expansion in 2024.

China to lead semiconductor industry expansion with 18 new fabs in 2024 —global chipmaking capacity to reach record heights : Read more

 

[Avro Arrow]

Without being able to buy equipment from ASML, what will China equip these fabs with?

 

[George³]

Without being able to buy equipment from ASML, what will China equip these fabs with?

There must be at least a few shiploads of machinery delivered from before the sanctions that have not been installed.

 

[Avro Arrow]

There must be at least a few shiploads of machinery delivered from before the sanctions that have not been installed.

Yeah, that makes sense. Then they'll reverse-engineer the hell out of it and all of the sanctions won't make one iota of difference. They already have full access to x86 architecture through their previous ventures with VIA so I think that the US sanctions will be nothing more than a paper tiger.

 

[DavidMV]

I think the world is way overshooting in semiconductor production capacity. This overproduction will be good for consumers for a little while with dirt cheap prices... but ultimately it will cause a lost decade or two in progress... You need large margins and profits to fund the next generation. Many industries get stuck in this cycle from time to time.

 

[Murissokah]

The only possible outcome for those sanctions is happening, how surprising.

 

[toffty]

What's missing is the transitor size for these new fabs.
I they're mostly in the 40nm+ regime then iot and auto chips will be dirt cheap but new CPU/GPUs will still be as expensive.

Even 10nm+ won't have much effect in most of our prices. If they're all 100nm+, that's laughable

 

[phead128]

Without being able to buy equipment from ASML, what will China equip these fabs with?

ASML has been selling to China since 1984, so they have 1,400 pieces of lithography and measurement instruments installed by end of 2023.
Plus the metric ton of orders before the Jan 1 2024 deadline.

China has enough NTX:2100i/NTX:2050i for 7nm chip wafer expansion as much as they possibly need until their domestic EUV version is scaled.

What's missing is the transitor size for these new fabs.
I they're mostly in the 40nm+ regime then iot and auto chips will be dirt cheap but new CPU/GPUs will still be as expensive.

Even 10nm+ won't have much effect in most of our prices. If they're all 100nm+, that's laughable

Most are probably 14nm/28nm and lower, . That's were all the demand is at, 90% of demand is <14nm nodes.

The only possible outcome for those sanctions is happening, how surprising.

Yes, sanctions has only accelerated their development. This is what happens when policy wonks don't understand technology they are regulating.

 

[Avro Arrow]

I think the world is way overshooting in semiconductor production capacity. This overproduction will be good for consumers for a little while with dirt cheap prices... but ultimately it will cause a lost decade or two in progress... You need large margins and profits to fund the next generation. Many industries get stuck in this cycle from time to time.

I have a hard time believing that the industry is suffering when nVidia just passed into the TRILLIONS of dollars. Your words are what I call "Corporate Kool-Aid" because it assumes that the semiconductor industry is poor, but it is anything but. Even with losses from prices being too low, the industry is in no danger of collapse and competition will continue because it has to.

We're not losing anything when it comes to progress, no matter how cheap things are. All you're doing is crying poor on behalf of the rich which is an absolute joke.

 

[DavidMV]

I have a hard time believing that the industry is suffering when nVidia just passed into the TRILLIONS of dollars. Your words are what I call "Corporate Kool-Aid" because it assumes that the semiconductor industry is poor, but it is anything but. Even with losses from prices being too low, the industry is in no danger of collapse and competition will continue because it has to.

We're not losing anything when it comes to progress, no matter how cheap things are. All you're doing is crying poor on behalf of the rich which is an absolute joke.

1. Nvidia and AMD build nothing... they just design things. I'm talking about TSMC, Global Foundries, Intel, Samsung, Micron, ASML and others that actually build stuff. They are the ones that make new nodes. Things are healthy now but won't be if we overbuild capacity. Politics is causing an overbuild, not market forces.

2. That trillion is market cap. Revenue and especially profit matter a lot more. The stock market is often detached from reality

Look at flash memory... that become unhealthy and the companies are cutting back production to get the prices near levels that can support R&D and fab replacements. A Fab costs $30 billion! If I make $10 off an SSD... that means I need to sell 3 billion SSDs just to build the next fab and break even. That is insane.

 

[ThomasKinsley]

With this many fabs coming online, it's hard to believe China is solely interested in the domestic market. The West is even thinking of banning these chips, which suggests they believe the chips will succeed in some markets. Were China to succeed in selling low-tier chips, their growth in the chip sector would help fund the more complex sanctioned processes.

Overall, it is a sound strategy.

 

[peachpuff]

Yes, sanctions has only accelerated their development. This is what happens when policy wonks don't understand technology they are regulating.

Keep me posted when they'll be fabbing <3nm chips... and taking over Taiwan doesn't count

 

[tamalero]

I always wonder.. do their semiconductor buildings are built of better quality than their crumbling ghost cities and failing infrastructure? I keep seeing insane videos of houses and buildings falling apart with incredibly bad and corrupted building methods.

 

[TesseractOrion]

The SEMI World Fab Forecast report predicts that China will lead the global semiconductor industry expansion in 2024.

China to lead semiconductor industry expansion with 18 new fabs in 2024 —global chipmaking capacity to reach record heights : Read more

Is that "begin production" as in "ready to make chips", or is it to just start to build the fabs? 🤔

 

[Cliff3.141592653589793238]

But Trumps & then Biden's tariffs were supposed to hurt those bad communists? Who could have foreseen putting tariffs on an advancing countries economy from a declining empire would backfire?

 

[sjkpublic]

And the US is having trouble just building 1 or 2 new fabs over the next few years.

 

[Vanderlindemedia]

But Trumps & then Biden's tariffs were supposed to hurt those bad communists? Who could have foreseen putting tariffs on an advancing countries economy from a declining empire would backfire?

Yep.

All that effort in "banning" products to be send or sold to China is'nt going to stop them. The complete opposite is happening. And in 10 to 20 years they might be far advanced compared to the west.

The world today is a circus led by people who have no clue. Really.

 

[DavidLejdar]

I always wonder.. do their semiconductor buildings are built of better quality than their crumbling ghost cities and failing infrastructure? I keep seeing insane videos of houses and buildings falling apart with incredibly bad and corrupted building methods.

Surfside condominium collapse (2021)
Parking garage collapse at 57 Ann Street, Financial District of Manhattan in New York City (2023)
Davenport apartment collapse (2023)
Ohio train derailment (2023)
...
46,154 of the bridges in the U.S. are considered structurally deficient

Makes me wonder, are the comments here of better quality than all that? 😉

Serious matters nonetheless.

 

[FoxtrotMichael-1]

I think it’s useful to remember the purpose of the sanctions, tariffs, and other policies of the US. The purpose is twofold: first, prevent the PLA from being able to utilize AI on a large scale by denying the accelerators required to run it and, second, encourage semiconductor production on US soil so that the US military can source semiconductors from a secured supply chain. These are defense goals, not economic ones. The US is not trying to prevent China from having a semiconductor industry.

 

[tamalero]

Surfside condominium collapse (2021)
Parking garage collapse at 57 Ann Street, Financial District of Manhattan in New York City (2023)
Davenport apartment collapse (2023)
Ohio train derailment (2023)
...
46,154 of the bridges in the U.S. are considered structurally deficient

Makes me wonder, are the comments here of better quality than all that? 😉

Serious matters nonetheless.

I think we can change the point to "corruption is increasing worldwide to alarming rates, endangering public".

 

[USAFRet]

OK...this has gone FAR off topic.

Closing this.