News Chip Shortages to Persist For at Least Another Year: Analysts

TravisPNW

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Glad I built in Dec 2020... by the time I get ready to build again in 2025 or 2026 the shortages should be no more.

Good luck everyone!
 
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spongiemaster

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The shortages aren't going to subside until Intel gets its 10nm process working with decent yields. Nothing else on the horizon has the potential to increase chip capacity significantly in the next year or so. Hopefully, Intel will get it right this year and we'll see Alder Lake and Sapphire Rapids early next year.
 

Heat_Fan89

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Paying that much over the card retail price is comparable to buying from a scalper eh?
Not really cause I was in the process of building a system rig for Microsoft Flight Simulator and trying to find a 5800X was tough and an RTX 3080 or RX 6800 XT was impossible. So it was a new system build and I paid a couple hundred more than if I did it myself. Granted, I would have chose different components but I paid Amazon $2199.99 for an HP Omen 30L i9-10850K with liquid cooling, 32GB 3200Mhz, 1TB Nvme, 2TB HDD, RTX 3080, Corsair 750W PSU, Wifi -6.

I could have gotten it for even less like, $1961 from Amazon but the scalpers and Bots who resell this same gaming rig on their website beat me to it before I could put the item in my cart.
 

InvalidError

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Glad I built in Dec 2020... by the time I get ready to build again in 2025 or 2026 the shortages should be no more.
It is also possible that demand will continue outstripping supply and the situation will persist indefinitely. With FSD, the average computing power in individual vehicles will increase by 10-100X and as the cost of computing power continues coming down, tons of menial jobs previously too complex for AI are going to get automated. We may also see an explosion in other autonomous vehicles of all sorts.

The demand for computing power isn't over, it is getting started.
 

salgado18

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Not really cause I was in the process of building a system rig for Microsoft Flight Simulator and trying to find a 5800X was tough and an RTX 3080 or RX 6800 XT was impossible. So it was a new system build and I paid a couple hundred more than if I did it myself. Granted, I would have chose different components but I paid Amazon $2199.99 for an HP Omen 30L i9-10850K with liquid cooling, 32GB 3200Mhz, 1TB Nvme, 2TB HDD, RTX 3080, Corsair 750W PSU, Wifi -6.

I could have gotten it for even less like, $1961 from Amazon but the scalpers and Bots who resell this same gaming rig on their website beat me to it before I could put the item in my cart.
I'm sorry for the CPU. Otherwise, good call, it's a nice config.
 
The shortages aren't going to subside until Intel gets its 10nm process working with decent yields. Nothing else on the horizon has the potential to increase chip capacity significantly in the next year or so. Hopefully, Intel will get it right this year and we'll see Alder Lake and Sapphire Rapids early next year.
It's not like intel will use todays arch with 10nm, they will have to use more transistors both in the CPU and in the iGPU so the amount of CPUs per wafer won't go up, they might even go down I mean Alder is supposed to get additional smaller cores those are going to use a chunck of real estate.
The demand for computing power isn't over, it is getting started.
The need to turn lawyers into cats is real!!!
 

TravisPNW

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Not really cause I was in the process of building a system rig for Microsoft Flight Simulator and trying to find a 5800X was tough and an RTX 3080 or RX 6800 XT was impossible. So it was a new system build and I paid a couple hundred more than if I did it myself. Granted, I would have chose different components but I paid Amazon $2199.99 for an HP Omen 30L i9-10850K with liquid cooling, 32GB 3200Mhz, 1TB Nvme, 2TB HDD, RTX 3080, Corsair 750W PSU, Wifi -6.

I could have gotten it for even less like, $1961 from Amazon but the scalpers and Bots who resell this same gaming rig on their website beat me to it before I could put the item in my cart.
Ahhh ok. Makes sense.

I built mine for (among other things) MSFS2020 as well... I got super lucky with a 3090 order (easier to get than 3080) and outside of that had no issues... I just had to go with Intel over AMD because the pricing and availability was obviously better. The only issue I had was holiday shipping times being slow.

The i9-10850K is fine. It gets me good results with the game that counts and doesn't get too hot. I would have preferred the 5800X but HP isn't selling those, yet but I have read recently that they will in the next 1-2 months.
Yeah there's nothing with Intel. I'm totally happy with my beast 10900k. AMD scalper tax isn't worth it. Glad it worked out for you.

The demand for computing power isn't over, it is getting started.
Scary thought then. Prices will go up and up and a new home PC will cost as much as a car.
 

waltc3

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I've been buying GPUs since a 3dfx V2 circa 1997/8. At no time have I ever seen "shortages" like this--even during past mining crazes the situation was not ever that you couldn't find the GPUs to buy no matter the price--it was that they were at most $200-$400 over MSRP. I thought that was robbery even then and waited on pricing to stabilize. Today we're seeing asking prices of $1500-$3500 for GPUs costing at MSRP $649-$1200/$1500--often 2x and 3x the total MSRPs, and many of these are not cheap at all even at MSRP! I have never seen it this bad.

All I know is that the shortages must have little to do with demand--because I've been looking for a 6800XT I could buy at any price for the past four months--I haven't found a single one available. Even those on Amazon priced by scalpers are obviously not in stock as they say about two weeks is the fastest they can ship it to you! That means they don't actually have any in stock but are hoping they will have one to send the customer in another couple of weeks! The AMD store should be bursting at the seams with Zen3 and RX6k's. It's not. Why not? Sell 1 to a customer, and then sell what's left to the scalpers and miners. A few 5800X's come in every few days and are gone quickly. If 6800XTs come in I always seem to miss them, somehow.

Zen2, taking upwards of 80%+ of all commercial retail CPU sales on Earth for the past 19 months or more, has never been in short supply. Zen 3 CPUs are being supplied in a spotty fashion, however, even though Zen2 has handily outsold Zen3. So why isn't Zen 3 available at the same or similar numbers to Zen 2? Furthermore, Zen 3 CPUs are more expensive, which also hurts the demand argument relative to Zen 2. Fact is, the supply of Zen 3 CPUs should be far more plentiful than it is atm. If supply was at the normal levels we saw last year.

I don't know, but one thing seems crystal clear to me and that is that these GPU and CPU shortages--for months, now--must be artificial. There just isn't that much demand for $579-$1500 GPUs--at MSRP--demand in those price ranges has never been high. These GPUs are not "sold out" because of high demand--something is artificially constricting the flow of GPUs right now--and to a lesser extent, CPUs.

I don't know what the political situation is in China, but what I do know is that under the past Washington administration supply was never this bad even though demand was actually higher because the GPUs and CPUs cost less! I don't agree with this analyst. There is no way it should take a year--because the problem is a supply shortage--not this gigantic demand. Hell, no--I've been "demanding" a 6800XT and I haven't found one yet I could drop into a cart and buy. Not one, anywhere--although I've looked every day 3-5 times a day from every source I know of. Trust me, not every person who plays 3d games wants to spend thousands on a GPU--not even half of that! The GPU sweet spot has always been $200-$300 for GPUs, and I very much doubt that has changed much if at all.

Look, if it takes a year to be able to stock enough product so that people can actually buy them--I don't see good tidings in store for either nVidia or AMD--over the next few quarters. It's not just a question of not meeting demand--the supply of GPUs and CPUs right now is far, far lower than any extant demand, even though that demand is lower than it was for the AMD 5K series GPUs and the nVidia RTX-2k series of GPU.

The last Washington administration was trying to bring chip production into the US so that we'd never have to experience these kinds of shortages--shortages that I believe have the Chinese government (and I do not mean Taiwan) behind them. It's clear something artificial is going on right now, and if any "analyst" disagrees I'd stipulate he doesn't know what he's talking about.

I didn't mean to go on about this--but honestly it's really beginning to piss me off. There's no point in advertising products for sale if you cannot supply them.
 

TravisPNW

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The last Washington administration was trying to bring chip production into the US so that we'd never have to experience these kinds of shortages--shortages that I believe have the Chinese government (and I do not mean Taiwan) behind them. It's clear something artificial is going on right now, and if any "analyst" disagrees I'd stipulate he doesn't know what he's talking about.

I didn't mean to go on about this--but honestly it's really beginning to piss me off. There's no point in advertising products for sale if you cannot supply them.
... and the current administration is in bed with China.

Surely this is going to end well. :ROFLMAO:

I shouldn't be laughing but as said I've got my new PC built. All those who didn't like the previous administration can now lay in the bed they helped make back in November.
 

Heat_Fan89

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I've been buying GPUs since a 3dfx V2 circa 1997/8. At no time have I ever seen "shortages" like this--even during past mining crazes the situation was not ever that you couldn't find the GPUs to buy no matter the price--it was that they were at most $200-$400 over MSRP. I thought that was robbery even then and waited on pricing to stabilize. Today we're seeing asking prices of $1500-$3500 for GPUs costing at MSRP $649-$1200/$1500--often 2x and 3x the total MSRPs, and many of these are not cheap at all even at MSRP! I have never seen it this bad.

All I know is that the shortages must have little to do with demand--because I've been looking for a 6800XT I could buy at any price for the past four months--I haven't found a single one available. Even those on Amazon priced by scalpers are obviously not in stock as they say about two weeks is the fastest they can ship it to you! That means they don't actually have any in stock but are hoping they will have one to send the customer in another couple of weeks! The AMD store should be bursting at the seams with Zen3 and RX6k's. It's not. Why not? Sell 1 to a customer, and then sell what's left to the scalpers and miners. A few 5800X's come in every few days and are gone quickly. If 6800XTs come in I always seem to miss them, somehow.

Zen2, taking upwards of 80%+ of all commercial retail CPU sales on Earth for the past 19 months or more, has never been in short supply. Zen 3 CPUs are being supplied in a spotty fashion, however, even though Zen2 has handily outsold Zen3. So why isn't Zen 3 available at the same or similar numbers to Zen 2? Furthermore, Zen 3 CPUs are more expensive, which also hurts the demand argument relative to Zen 2. Fact is, the supply of Zen 3 CPUs should be far more plentiful than it is atm. If supply was at the normal levels we saw last year.

I don't know, but one thing seems crystal clear to me and that is that these GPU and CPU shortages--for months, now--must be artificial. There just isn't that much demand for $579-$1500 GPUs--at MSRP--demand in those price ranges has never been high. These GPUs are not "sold out" because of high demand--something is artificially constricting the flow of GPUs right now--and to a lesser extent, CPUs.

I don't know what the political situation is in China, but what I do know is that under the past Washington administration supply was never this bad even though demand was actually higher because the GPUs and CPUs cost less! I don't agree with this analyst. There is no way it should take a year--because the problem is a supply shortage--not this gigantic demand. Hell, no--I've been "demanding" a 6800XT and I haven't found one yet I could drop into a cart and buy. Not one, anywhere--although I've looked every day 3-5 times a day from every source I know of. Trust me, not every person who plays 3d games wants to spend thousands on a GPU--not even half of that! The GPU sweet spot has always been $200-$300 for GPUs, and I very much doubt that has changed much if at all.

Look, if it takes a year to be able to stock enough product so that people can actually buy them--I don't see good tidings in store for either nVidia or AMD--over the next few quarters. It's not just a question of not meeting demand--the supply of GPUs and CPUs right now is far, far lower than any extant demand, even though that demand is lower than it was for the AMD 5K series GPUs and the nVidia RTX-2k series of GPU.

The last Washington administration was trying to bring chip production into the US so that we'd never have to experience these kinds of shortages--shortages that I believe have the Chinese government (and I do not mean Taiwan) behind them. It's clear something artificial is going on right now, and if any "analyst" disagrees I'd stipulate he doesn't know what he's talking about.

I didn't mean to go on about this--but honestly it's really beginning to piss me off. There's no point in advertising products for sale if you cannot supply them.
I honestly am not qualified to say whether these shortages are artificial or if it's demand driven but in my 25+ yrs of buying parts to build my gaming rigs, I have NEVER seen it this bad. If you go to EVGA's website they are pretty much sold out of everything with an auto-notify.

Amazon, Best Buy, Newegg etc all sold out unless you want to deal with a scalper. So is it artificial? Again, I can't say because I will say this and this is just one example.

The HP Omen build I purchased from Amazon for $2199 also sells out within minutes if not seconds. When I caught the exact same system priced at $1961 and sold by Amazon, it sold out in seconds. I put it in my cart, went to checkout and it was gone.

PS5, XBOX Series X, sell out within seconds once they hit Walmart's, Best Buy's, Amazon's and Sony's website. My question though is this? If it truly is artificial, then why is the same thing happening with entire PC gaming builds that cost a couple thousand dollars and consoles flying off the shelves within seconds and afterwards are nowhere to be found? If you want a current Alienware build you have to wait around a month sometimes longer for delivery.
 
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TravisPNW

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PS5, XBOX Series X, sell out within seconds once they hit Walmart's, Best Buy's, Amazon's and Sony's website. My question though is this? If it truly is artificial, then why is the same thing happening with entire PC gaming builds that cost a couple thousand dollars and consoles flying off the shelves within seconds and afterwards are nowhere to be found? If you want a current Alienware build you have to wait around a month sometimes longer for delivery.
These are all scalper bots. My roommate works in Costco's IT and back at Christmas time gave me insider info on when PS5 and XSX units were going to hit the website... down to the exact minute.

I got 1 of each (for friend's Christmas gifts) after putting all my CC info etc in beforehand. Spamming refresh on the pages over and over and they instantly went from "SOLD OUT" to "ADD TO CART" and I made the purchase.

Oh... he also told me they sold their entire stock of 6500 PS5's and 2500 XSX's in less than 5 minutes. What I did here is how I got my 3090 from BB... same exact thing. Beating the bots. I know people that work at BB too... and sometimes insider info is what it takes.

Anyway... things really suck right but all I can do is sit back and watch. I have my PC built and I'm not a console gamer outside of retro Nintendo Switch stuff so I have no further purchases to make for 4-5 years... just sitting back and watching other people scramble like I did.

If people would quit buying from scalpers it would help a lot... I bought the 10900k for $500 from Newegg because I wasn't going to pay $1300 from some eBay scalper for the 5950x.

Other people do though and that's part of the problem.
 
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Heat_Fan89

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These are all scalper bots. My roommate works in Costco's IT and back at Christmas time gave me insider info on when PS5 and XSX units were going to hit the website... down to the exact minute.

I got 1 of each (for friend's Christmas gifts) after putting all my CC info etc in beforehand. Spamming refresh on the pages over and over and they instantly went from "SOLD OUT" to "ADD TO CART" and I made the purchase.

Oh... he also told me they sold their entire stock of 6500 PS5's and 2500 XSX's in less than 5 minutes. What I did here is how I got my 3090 from BB... same exact thing. Beating the bots. I know people that work at BB too... and sometimes insider info is what it takes.

Anyway... things really suck right but all I can do is sit back and watch. I have my PC built and I'm not a console gamer outside of retro Nintendo Switch stuff so I have no further purchases to make for 4-5 years... just sitting back and watching other people scramble like I did.

If people would quit buying from scalpers it would help a lot... I bought the 10900k for $500 from Newegg because I wasn't going to pay $1300 from some eBay scalper for the 5950x.

Other people do though and that's part of the problem.
I've read that spamming the refresh page works but I must've been doing something wrong because that trick has never worked for me. I would sit there for a minute and it would stay stuck on "out of stock".

I agree that scalpers and bots make it tough on everyone else. Like I mentioned previously, that happened again wrt the HP Omen that Amazon dropped in price from $2199 to $1961. I couldn't make to checkout as I would then get the error message in my cart.

But as far as real people not paying more than $500+ for a GPU. That same HP Omen that I purchased, the scalpers have pretty much sold out. There's now a 3-4 week wait. So i'm sure they must be using software or have an inside tip when Amazon will restock that item.

Oh well, even though I could have gotten it for less than $2199 at least it's better than the $2900-3100 the scalpers are now charging for the same rig.
 

TravisPNW

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But as far as real people not paying more than $500+ for a GPU. That same HP Omen that I purchased, the scalpers have pretty much sold out. There's now a 3-4 week wait. So i'm sure they must be using software or have an inside tip when Amazon will restock that item.

Oh well, even though I could have gotten it for less than $2199 at least it's better than the $2900-3100 the scalpers are now charging for the same rig.
I hear ya. Sounds like the scalpers are now buying prebuilts and breaking them down for resale... or maybe it's miners getting their hardware. Either way, it's a nightmare that I'm glad I don't have to deal with for a very long time.

As others have said... it's never been this bad. As recently as April 2017 I got a flagship Nvidia card (1080 Ti) for $699 and didn't even have to wait for it... got it on release day. It's been all downhill since then... IIRC mining exploded shortly after.

We'll never see those prices again for a flagship card. Ever. We may never seen supply again either. As long as scalpers have people to sell to it's never gonna end.
 
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spongiemaster

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It's not like intel will use todays arch with 10nm, they will have to use more transistors both in the CPU and in the iGPU so the amount of CPUs per wafer won't go up, they might even go down I mean Alder is supposed to get additional smaller cores those are going to use a chunck of real estate.
Depending on the source, Intel's 10nm Superfin is anywhere from 2.2x to 2.7x the density of their 14nm node. Golden Cove cores are supposed to be big, but no one is predicting 2+ times the size of a Coffee Lake core, let alone twice the size of a Cypress Cove core.
 

Kamen Rider Blade

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Depending on the source, Intel's 10nm Superfin is anywhere from 2.2x to 2.7x the density of their 14nm node. Golden Cove cores are supposed to be big, but no one is predicting 2+ times the size of a Coffee Lake core, let alone twice the size of a Cypress Cove core.
AVX 512 needs ALOT of transistor real estate, and we all know transistor area is at a premium.
 

spongiemaster

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AVX 512 needs ALOT of transistor real estate, and we all know transistor area is at a premium.
So what? Intel's Xeons and Rocket Lake, all on 14nm, have/will have AVX512. 10nm Ice Lake chips also have AVX512, and their die size is still estimated to be about 35% smaller than a 14nm Coffee Lake die. The difference between Ice Lake and Cypress Cove is going to be pretty sizable.
 

watzupken

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If demand persists, it is not surprising it will take time for supply to catch up since supply is probably already at full capacity. The question is whether demand will remain this strong over time. I feel the shortage is initially fueled by the lockdowns due to COVID impacting supply chain severely. As things starts becoming better in some places, they are now picking up the slack. Of course there was also a surge in demand for PC components due to work from home as well. So even more slack to pick up.
 

bigdragon

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The shortage is going to go on for another year? Late last year they were saying the problem would be solved by now. A month ago, they were saying things would get better in the spring. A few weeks ago it was summer. Now, next year.

I'll say it again: Welcome to the new normal. This isn't some sort of COVID-driven demand. COVID may have been the catalyst, but the demand for computing hardware is going to stay strong because there are so many applications for it and so many industries transforming to newer technology.

The US government needs to get serious about increasing domestic supply. We cannot just rely upon TSMC. Proposed fabs in Texas and New York need to be fast tracked and built ASAP. I don't care which party is in charge or who gets credit for what -- fix the supply chain and stop kicking the can down the road. Likewise, the EU needs to get its supply up too. We all could use some anti-scalping laws too given that scalpers and miners completely own the sales channels now.
 

InvalidError

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I feel the shortage is initially fueled by the lockdowns due to COVID impacting supply chain severely.
Intel was unable to meet demand for the two or three years preceding covid-19 despite increasing 14nm throughput by somewhere in the neighborhood of 50% by upgrading two of its fabs on top of ramping up 10nm. Fab capacity was maxed out in most places long before covid-19 became a factor. All covid did was compound a pre-existing issue by simultaneously causing a manufacturing crunch at the same time as a demand surge.

Now that we're on the way to implementing full self-driving on everything from trucks to personal massage devices, there will be a practically infinite demand for chips.
 

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