By May of this year the only thing that will be remembered about the Corona virus is that it was named after a beer.
Yeah, a joke about that keeps stirring in the back of my mind, too.
There are more cases of people having survived it than dying from it.
Ref: Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by Johns Hopkins CSSE
World wide cases:
Total recovered: 30k +-
Total deaths: 2770
Unfortunately, what defines a serious outbreak is not simply whether the mortality rate is at least 50%.
The seriousness of a disease outbreak is roughly the product of its contagion rate and its mortality rate. So, if you take something like Ebola, it has a mortality rate of over 60%, but it's actually not very contagious (at least, not in societies where burial rituals don't involve families touching their dead loved ones). Still, the mortality rate is extremely high, and it's a pretty nasty way to go, so it attracts a somewhat disproportionate amount of attention (and you never know when a virus could find a mutation that makes it far more contagious).
At the other extreme, you could look at the common cold, which is extremely contagious, but has a very low mortality rate.
What's so worrying about Covid-19 is that it seems to be highly contagious, with not all of the mechanisms of transmission fully understood (though, there does seem to be some asymptomatic spreading), and
it seems to kill about 2% of those it infects.
So, if it manages to spread worldwide, that's 160 million people it could kill. Obviously, it won't spread to 100% of the global population, but the flip side is that the mortality rate will be higher in countries with poor healthcare infrastructure. So, the potential is there to kill way more people than died in all of the world wars and terror attacks, combined, and then some.
If it killed 2% of the US, that would be 6.6 million people, or about 3000 times the number killed in the 9/11 terror attacks. Everyone would probably know several who died. The economy would surely plunge into recession. It wouldn't be post-apocalyptic
bad, but certainly the worst we've seen since the 1918 flu pandemic
If I'm wrong I'll be only to happy to say I was wrong.
The question is will you do the same?
Oh hell yes. I'd love
to be wrong. I am not at all invested in this happening. I'm just trying to explain why it's legitimately a big deal and something worthy of attention (but not panic).
The best case scenario I can see is that spread in the US might be limited until the warmer months, when the virus will hopefully
be less active. By next winter, there will hopefully be some anti-viral mitigations that can significantly reduce the mortality rate. And, by about a year from now, there will be enough vaccine to start giving it to some of the most vulnerable populations.
Apparently, for about 80% of those who get it, the symptoms are fairly mild. However, you might still be quarantined to prevent you from contributing to the spread and maybe giving it to someone for whom it's fatal.