ASLM will be out of business in ten years thanks to the US Sanctions and Dutch Gov... Forcing China to develop it own Litho processes, and they will, only creates a big global competitor. China is already moving into AMD, Intel CPU competition. Chinese AI chips are moving fast, so are GPUs. They will likely hit 5nm this year. They are now closing in on 70% self-reliance on legacy chips.
There is zero evidence that blocking technology has done anything other than energize China's home grown technology and reduce sales for Intel, AMD, Qualcomm and other US affiliates.
The Semiconductor business in the US is only 2.3% of the GDP and falling 3% a year. A dozen fab companies competing for next to no business is a disaster in the making. There is no endgame on sanctions. Worse ASML knows it and opposes the Dutch Sanctions.
What good are Roads, Trains and education when the Dutch Gov is blocking ASML's largest customer. Without China, who will buy Qualcomm chips? Korea? No, Samsung developed its own narrow gates phone chips last year.
There is not a single US Semiconductor company that supports US Sanctions other than Intel. Think about that. Intel missed the entire hand held market on their own. They failed at making a 10nm chip. Now they are talking about making 2nm chips in Columbus OH, as if it is a snap, using unemployed Union labour left over from the departing rust belt Automotive makers. Intel has been rewarded for this cheap talk to the lion share of the 52 Billion Chips Act. Samsung and TSCM have already made 3nm chips and are able to supply the world demand for narrow gated chips at present.
Since Intel lost the handheld market and the 5G market, they would like nothing better than to stall AMD, NVIDIA, and Qualcomm... especially with AI coming along. The activity of the US Gov and Intel is nefarious.
What pray tell is the United States going to do with a dozen fab plants when TSCM and Samsung already can handle the global demand and service the largest customer for all chips which is China. Mathematically this is a bust.
What does ASML get out of this? Roads, Trains and Education. More simply NOTHING other than increased taxes and increased overhead and more government control.
The US Gov is in bed with Intel. It sanctions AI chips from NVIDIA and AMD, so Intel can try to catch up and join the parade. And the US Gov Attacks Apple claiming it has a monopoly. A Monopoly? Where? It makes less PCs and less Smartphones than most of the leading global competitors. But what did Apple do? It dumped Intel CPUs and made its own m1 and m2 processors.
The entire protectionist scam seeks to alter the global semiconductor industry which evolved on its own as a global division of labour industry and worked perfectly for decades. The paranoia of the US Government under Trump and then Biden, felt threatened that the US was dependent on TSCM for narrow gated chips.
The Trump move to bar Huawei and 5G will be remembered as the downfall of the US Semiconductor industry. And Biden Sanctions doing exactly the same thing is attempting to take Europe, Korea and Japan down with it. But but but National Security!
Think about that argument for a minute. The US Says, "We don't want Chiner Military using our Chip technology!" No, instead you want China building their own secret Military Chips when in fact if they were using US made chips, the US would know what was in the chips. The US arguments are childish and detrimental to a global industry built on division of labours. ASML has a technology lead only because of the global division of labour. China and Japan had no incentive to build their own lithography until the US talked the Dutch into stupidly sanctioning ASML.
Facebook
Twitter
Instagram