News Evidence mounts that China has sanctions-defying 5nm tech — Huawei reportedly preps new AI processor built with Chinese fabs' N+2 node

[Admin]

Huawei's next-generation Ascend 910B AI accelerator purportedly uses SMIC's N+2 process technology.

Evidence mounts that China has sanctions-defying 5nm tech — Huawei reportedly preps new AI processor built with Chinese fabs' N+2 node : Read more

 

[Murissokah]

The more I hear about these sanctions, the more convinced I am that this can only backfire.

 

[semmster1025]

They couldn't have made a better move if they are trying to make them independent, and therefore stronger. After all, it's not like they are starting from basics, or have limited resources... I think I see what's happening. Just buying time.

 

[Order 66]

The only thing that trying to stop China from getting their hands on more advanced tech will do is make them try harder to get it. Like with Micheal Jordan in the NBA, IIRC, He was fined for wearing different color shoes, but yet he kept wearing them.

 

[JamesJones44]

The point of sanctions are to slow someone/something down. Considering China had access to the machinery to make chips all the way down to ~2nm for years, it's no surprise they can produce 7nm and 5nm chips. When anyone will know if the sanctions are working is when that equipment breaks or when they get close to the nm length the equipment was designed for.

If China is able to make its own equipment that can go lower than their existing equipment acquired from western sources then I would say it's clear that they have "defied" sanctions. At this point it's hard to say if it's just a continuation of refinement for equipment they already have or they have really defied sanctions.

 

[Avro Arrow]

I'm pretty certain that Huawei can produce enough of these chips. If there's one thing that China has demonstrated over and over again it's that nobody should ever underestimate their capacity for the production of goods, any goods.

Sooner or later, some unscrupulous corporation will find a way to supply the latest silicon production tech to China. Sure, China will probably pay 3-5x what the tech is worth but China doesn't care and that kind of money would be an incredibly strong motivator for certain people.

 

[craigss]

The Chinese will be in the Tech lead within 5 years spurred on by the US Govt sanctions, in no time they will quickly and easily form a new found trade umbrella with other countries in that hemisphere that will position them as the world leader and will tell the US and the west to go swing as well as increasing the price of all the consumer goods we buy from them mark my words its coming the US will be very sorry

 

[ex_bubblehead]

A reminder that politics of any kind are to be kept out of these forums. Failure to comply will result in closure of the thread and possible sanctions on the violator/s.

 

[hotaru251]

funny thing about sanctions....it only stops direct sales...did americans give up booze during the prohibition? no...it still got via back channels.

 

[ivan_vy]

The Chinese will be in the Tech lead within 5 years spurred on by the US Govt sanctions, in no time they will quickly and easily form a new found trade umbrella with other countries in that hemisphere that will position them as the world leader and will tell the US and the west to go swing as well as increasing the price of all the consumer goods we buy from them mark my words its coming the US will be very sorry

5 years is pretty short time, 10 years to be competitive, in 20 years might surpass west in some areas.

 

[ivan_vy]

I'm pretty certain that Huawei can produce enough of these chips. If there's one thing that China has demonstrated over and over again it's that nobody should ever underestimate their capacity for the production of goods, any goods.

Sooner or later, some unscrupulous corporation will find a way to supply the latest silicon production tech to China. Sure, China will probably pay 3-5x what the tech is worth but China doesn't care and that kind of money would be an incredibly strong motivator for certain people.

if there is money to spend, there is someone willing to sell. And not just finished goods: manpower, IP, tools, they can solve the problem by throwing money at it, they are already doing that.

 

[Justlookin]

can someone link a article or source to explain the history of these sanctions? im interested in learning more about it

 

[watzupken]

The more I hear about these sanctions, the more convinced I am that this can only backfire.

It is already happening. China is not some impoverish country that cannot help it if US decides to sanction them. And as you can tell, they are throwing a lot of money into the problem with government backing. In the short run, there is not much they can do other than to stock up for "winter". In the long run, the effect is mostly detrimental to the nations/ companies imposing these sanctions because,
1. They lose a big chunk of income forever. If China can produce their own chips, no reason why they need to pay others out there to manufacture their chips. If they can scale over time, other nations may also buy from them to diversify their risk.

2. Due to shrinking market, these companies earn less, which translates to less tax money for the government, and also less money to reinvest in R&D for the companies. Both of these may translate to slower development in the longer run.

 

[autobahn]

China has a lot of smart people and a lot of resources. Eventually, one way or another, they will figure out how to fab at 5nm and smaller. This is just a stall tactic for the west to get further down the path of developing AI as a national strategic resource, ahead of China. IMO the sanctions don't really have teeth because the west needs access to Chinese markets and cheap manufacturing/labor to run their own economy and keep voters happy and amid high inflation voters want to be able to buy things cheaply now more than ever which means 'made in china'.

 

[ivan_vy]

China has a lot of smart people and a lot of resources. Eventually, one way or another, they will figure out how to fab at 5nm and smaller. This is just a stall tactic for the west to get further down the path of developing AI as a national strategic resource, ahead of China. IMO the sanctions don't really have teeth because the west needs access to Chinese markets and cheap manufacturing/labor to run their own economy and keep voters happy and amid high inflation voters want to be able to buy things cheaply now more than ever which means 'made in china'.

still I don't think west will win the AI race, China has decades training computer vision and surveillance, its database is enormous, maybe Israel might challenge them but China eventually will win.

 

[phead128]

The point of sanctions are to slow someone/something down. Considering China had access to the machinery to make chips all the way down to ~2nm for years, it's no surprise they can produce 7nm and 5nm chips. When anyone will know if the sanctions are working is when that equipment breaks or when they get close to the nm length the equipment was designed for.

If China is able to make its own equipment that can go lower than their existing equipment acquired from western sources then I would say it's clear that they have "defied" sanctions. At this point it's hard to say if it's just a continuation of refinement for equipment they already have or they have really defied sanctions.

That's goal post shifting.

The original goal was to permanently shutdown China's advanced fabs operations. Zero operations at 14nm or lower by denying equipment, even maintenance service.

Sanctions have clearly backfired, and the cope of "it's slowing them down!" is by policy wonks who killed US market access by not understanding the technology.

 

[GaoGao]

Huawei's next-generation Ascend 910B AI accelerator purportedly uses SMIC's N+2 process technology.

Evidence mounts that China has sanctions-defying 5nm tech — Huawei reportedly preps new AI processor built with Chinese fabs' N+2 node : Read more

I worked 5 years in China in technology and R&D. When I read about the sanctions my first thought was "ok, you just freed China from US technology dependency, that's a very short time view of the problem, it will fire back" Bullying China is just pressing their very sensible nationalist button. Thinking China is just able to produce cheap copies is delusional. They are still perfectly able to produce crap, but when they are doing right they are very good. Of course they is human rights, but in terms of technology in daily life China is years ahead of the USA and of Europe.

 

[JamesJones44]

China has a lot of smart people and a lot of resources. Eventually, one way or another, they will figure out how to fab at 5nm and smaller. This is just a stall tactic for the west to get further down the path of developing AI as a national strategic resource, ahead of China. IMO the sanctions don't really have teeth because the west needs access to Chinese markets and cheap manufacturing/labor to run their own economy and keep voters happy and amid high inflation voters want to be able to buy things cheaply now more than ever which means 'made in china'.

I agree with this stance. It's hard to "cripple" a country when you have normalized trade relations and pump billions into their economy/country. If they really want sanctions to work they need to repeal normalized trade relations, otherwise I have a hard time believing slowing then down will really work.

 

[JamesJones44]

That's goal post shifting.

The original goal was to permanently shutdown China's advanced fabs operations. Zero operations at 14nm or lower by denying equipment, even maintenance service.

Sanctions have clearly backfired, and the cope of "it's slowing them down!" is by policy wonks who killed US market access by not understanding the technology.

No, it's not. North Kora is still progressing in technology despite being very poor economically. You can't "shutdown" any country short of removing the government, even then, it's just a change, not a "shutdown".

Perhaps in a delusional world sanctions works as you describe, but in the real world people understand the goals of sanctions. Whether they will be effective or not is a different issue.

 

[phead128]

No, it's not. North Kora is still progressing in technology despite being very poor economically. You can't "shutdown" any country short of removing the government, even then, it's just a change, not a "shutdown".

Perhaps in a delusional world sanctions works as you describe, but in the real world people understand the goals of sanctions. Whether they will be effective or not is a different issue.

You are correct.

The Western analyst predicted it would take 10 years for China to achieve 7nm after US sanctions... It only took 2 years for China to achieve 7nm.

Western analyst predict it will be impossible for China to achieve 5nm without EUV.... guess what, China is also achieving 5nm.

Time and time again, US wants to "stop" or "delay" only to have accelerated China's drive for sufficiency and development. It's a blessing in disguise for China, and for what "national security" gain? The difference between 3nm and 5nm has ZERO national security advantages.

 

[Order 66]

Time and time again, US wants to "stop" or "delay" only to have accelerated China's drive for sufficiency and development. It's a blessing in disguise for China, and for what "national security" gain? The difference between 3nm and 5nm has ZERO national security advantages.

My thought is that by national security risk they mean more advanced military technology, but I also don't see the difference between 3nm and 5nm.

 

[TJ Hooker]

The Western analyst predicted it would take 10 years for China to achieve 7nm after US sanctions... It only took 2 years for China to achieve 7nm.

Western analyst predict it will be impossible for China to achieve 5nm without EUV.... guess what, China is also achieving 5nm.

Do you have sources for this? It looks like the major tools requires for 7/5nm DUV were available before any sanctions, which would have made those predictions a little silly from the get-go.

ASML Ships Twinscan NXT:2000i Scanner for 7nm and 5nm DUV

www.anandtech.com

I'm not sure if 5nm DUV was ever considered impossible. Just that it would require heavy multi-patterning, increasing cost/time and reducing yield, making it impractical compared to EUV.