u_gonna_squeal_b4_we_cookya :
jimmysmitty :
Interesting that they are pushing a new Titan out when Maxwell is supposed to be out this year. Wonder if there might be a delay, if so I would imagine it on TSMCs side as it is supposed to be on a newer process.I so have to say the black looks nice. I think they would need to do more color options. Not like iPod but you know the normal Black, Red etc.
That's what I was wondering (about TSMC and 20nm). From what I have read about the 750ti, it appears that they will be using a 28nm die which is probably why they are placing the first Maxwell parts in the 7xx series. Are they simply not ready to start making acceptable quality 20/22nm chips or do they want to get the most out of their 28nm equipment? I would assume there would have to be some major overhauling of the manufacturing equipment which doesn't sound cheap. There were a few articles about Nvidia being unhappy with TSMC regarding the new fab process last year such as this one: https://www.semiwiki.com/forum/content/1121-nvidia-claims-tsmc-20nm-will-not-scale.html. Apparently it would cost almost twice as much to produce such a GPU which completely goes against one of the main reasons for a die shrink - cost efficiency since the theory is that more dies can be produced with the same wafer.
I think most of the early production is going to apple and other socs. It makes total sense to make 80mm-100mm dies on a new shrink vs risking 560mm dies on a new process. That kind of waste over defects would make gaming cards probably double or they just lose their butts. I could see AMD's management doing something this stupid (they seem to know quite know how to price products for profits), but Jen looks to his bean counters and says "eh, that ain't going to make enough, I'll pass thanks" which is exactly what he did with PS4 vs. dedicating those resources to SOCS. I'd rather rule the future GPUs in a 1.2B unit market now and growing to 2.5B units in 2yrs vs. 20-30mil consoles a year at the same $10 profit or so on a chip. They sold 7.1mil already + whatever was sold in the pipe that MS/Sony are boxing up for sale right this minute and only pocketed 130mil in the gpu division. So they aren't making more than $10-15 per chip (75-105mil roughly on 7.1mil so far). I'm thinking not much over $10 since I'm guessing another 2-3mil already went to these two for more consoles a month ago. So 10mil chips sent (even if only 7.1mil sold so far, as both companies are building more with more chips in hand right now), and $10-12 each or AMD didn't make a buck at all on hawaii cards. Which again would show how dumb they price products. 10million chips at $12 is 120mil. That's almost the entire gpu divisions profits (131mil). How dumb are you if you only make 11mil on a brand spanking new gpu?
Just one more thing backing my comments about AMD needing to charge more and NV probably needs to also as they don't make anywhere near the 850mil they made in 2007 in 6yrs (1/2 that now). No matter who a person likes NEITHER of these two companies is making a mint and neither is screwing us or they be beating profits of 6yrs ago not making 1/2 that today. And actually adjusted net income was only 45mil, so even consoles didn't help and this is without the 200mil charge that is coming Q1. So overall for Q1's fine from GF will kill this last Q 45mil and even a super hugemongous AMD Q1 and consoles won't likely sell another 7.1mil this Q. Pre-orders are over so I expect much lower on that side as you now see them IN STOCK. Console party is over in 2 months? I thought they'd have a chance of selling out for at least 4 months but we'll see. AMD will likely see a net 150mil+ loss this Q. I would say $75mil-100mil if they were still OUT of stock but they are IN STOCK so that was a short party for hardcore people. It will look really bad if they do the exact same story as Wiiu which had a great nov/dec then 1Q later dropped 50% sales, and a few more Q's later is now saying off 70%...ROFL. Consoles are dead, people just don't get it yet. AMD drops 12% on gloomy future from the Q report. Wait until you see the drop when people hear xbox1/ps4 is off (even 25% would be bad, but 50% off like wiiu will scare the crap out of a LOT of shareholders), and that miners are done buying AMD also. Even AMD says you earn $704 mining for a year (they don't account for electricity or cooling that 100% card for a year either), and they forget to mention in less than 6 months ASICS will be mining LTC etc so that party is really $350- cost to run your card 100% for those 6 months (that's a 300watt bulb right? 24/7). At .12 per kwh (avg or so in USA) that's .86 a day x30 x 6. So $154 off your 350. Your card costs $500-600 (lowest 290/290x on newegg, note all in stock now so that party over already too). So if you're mining and it's over in 6 months as asics take over LTC etc (bitcoin party already ASIC), you're out what $300-400? The card doesn't make you a dime. Mining is dumb. You are basically mining to get the card for what it was SUPPOSED to be worth originally...LOL. You have to figure you don't get to play a single game on it while it mines 24/7 for 6 months. That has to knock a few bucks off it's real value if you can't use it for 6 months for any fun.
If anyone here owns AMD, you should be paying attention to what I'm saying
I predicted the drop before the Q, here it is 12%. Get ready for more pain as NV won't have a bad Q, and like market share to Intel will show gains.
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/01/22/amd-lost-market-share-in-q4.aspx
Like I said before, Intel is coming for low end now and is forced to by ARM as the only defense against crap like chromebooks getting 21% of the ENTIRE notebook market. They can't allow more pain, so AMD is screwed in cpu.
"Intel isn't kidding
When Intel's Kirk Skaugen, GM of the company's PC Client Group, presented at the Credit Suisse Technology Conference, the message was clear: Intel, which had ignored the low end of the PC market for many years, was finally serious about taking back share in this segment."
Further:
"With a product line specifically targeted for these low-cost, low-power systems, AMD is set to lose some pretty serious share."
I don't agree with some of his other points, but it is bad for AMD. I however don't think Intel is purposely going after AMD, they are going after stopping ARM, it's just that AMD happens to be in the way of the truck about to mow them down to slow arm.
Shareholders beware. I warned you and am warning you even more now! Dump at any bump in the next 3 months or get killed next quarter. Many say they will lose share all year just like Ashraf, and I include myself in that MANY group and they have a 2nd fine coming from GF after the Q1 fine that is just covering Dec 31. There is no way they will make wafer agreements this year Q1 or probably the next Q with NO console chips being made at GF. Moving to TSMC for these ensures AMD will get killed yet again by GF. When will they be over their stupid (no I meant to say asinine) agreement with GF? Look at the report, they have cost AMD 1B+ in 2yrs. Another 200mil this Q and who knows for the rest of the year. This is FUGLY. RUN from AMD stock the second you can before you really take the punch in the gut.
This isn't a comment on AMD product, but rather on what is about to happen to their financials. Consoles mean nothing even if they sold like launch all year with the GF fines being accounted for. A pair of brand new console launches only netted them 45mil with the best Q of console sales in history (nearly double last gen launches). Only an idiot would think it will be xmas for the next 4 quarters with them being in stock everywhere now. If they don't sell vid cards or cpus like crazy this Q it's going to be UGLY. There is a reason NV ran from consoles. They don't make enough to kill your CORE products R&D. AMD said they made a choice to go console diverting resources. It shows. NV spent on mobile instead which is making companies like Apple/Samsung/Qcom 40B/36B/6.5B each. Think about that for a second and tell me if 45mil at launch is worth more than 6.5B even just by Qcom's profits. Someone at AMD is stupid. NV chose to have a shot at Qcom's 6.5Billion a year vs. consoles (if lucky) a few hundred mil this year and if they aren't wildly successful devs run and you get wiiu/vita sales for life. That same shot can take a portion of Samsung/Apple also. Consoles won't be worth more than a few billion if lucky and they live for 7yrs this time (doubtful, game dev writing already on the wall, watch GDC 2014 in March for more bad console news). MOBILE however clearly worth 10's of billions PER YEAR, never mind the total for 7+ years. DUMB. It also created PHASE 3 drivers (if not more) as phase 2 isn't the end. It also created a failed Ref design etc. Consoles cost AMD a lot for a pipedream 7yr future.
It's like not listening to your generals on the ground. AMD ignored the bean counters, while Jen Hsun said, yeah you're right guys. Ford listened when gas tanks were blowing up. We'll sell enough to make a mint on you dying and suing us, so who cares if you die. It's the same principle. Ford made more on you dying than fixing the tanks. Sad, but business is ruthless. For all the fools who think AMD is their friend, wise up. They need to start acting like a RUTHLESS prick or die because someone else will run a business like you should (to make money!) and kill them. Intel will bleed on the low-end to match ARM BOM's which will kill all AMD APU dreams. Intel might break even on socs or make a few bucks because of a smaller process while AMD will just bleed more this year to match them and arm since they appear to be 28nm even with seattle and it's just aimed at microservers (which everyone else is coming for with 20nm versions of Denver, Snapdragon 805 etc). Morons. I love AMD but management is retarded and are actively killing AMD. They should have went after Qcom/samsung/apples socs like NV. We are talking probably 20Billion in socs combined vs. dumb consoles that won't break 400mil this year. GO MOBILE bozos! The AMD execs who made the console decision should be fired ASAP. They clearly are ignoring the generals on the ground (bean counters). Nobody will buy AMD until broke either. They all already have ARM socs. The cpus are already dead by Intel and only low-end. They all have their own GPU's (Mali, Rogue, Adreno etc). No reason to pay any premium for the loser in everything that makes 43mil. All of these people make BILLIONS (except ARM...650mil or so...LOL - selling IP not as good as making chips-look at IMG.L also - IP only sucks they're almost broke and have to try to sell mips cpus to you vs. ARM? ROFL).
TLDR for anyone not owning stocks below, just move along now
One step further, BUY NVDA. Intel's only move at this point is basically buying them or losing in the end. You're already running only 80%, just shut down AZ fab (it's EMPTY) and are now looking like AMD over the last 2yrs announcing a 5% employee cut. What happens to those fabs that are now 20% idle (even with adding altera, and producing SOME other peoples stuff) when you move to 450mm wafers increasing production even more WHILE going to a smaller die at 14nm/10nm? I'll tell you what happens, you go idle even more and layoff even more. You are about to add 40-50% capacity in ALREADY idle fabs which ideally run near 100%. You are FAR behind in graphics and can't stop arm from already getting 21% of the ENTIRE notebook market. Denver is coming (along with others) for your desktops and Boulder (etc) for your servers. If you buy NVDA now for say 13.5-14B (a little over a years profits at Intel, and the normal 60% premium for a company purchase) and throw Jen Hsun say $1Billion personally directly to his checking account I'm thinking this guy gets over his "I want to run your company as CEO or I won't sell" crap. The man is worth about 300mil. If you tell me I can quadruple my PERSONAL net worth by selling and say, run the SOC/GPU dept at Intel while krzanich or someone runs the cpu side etc I would sell in under a second...LOL.
What happens to 20% IDLE fabs if you start making GPUS that are 560mm and SOCS that completely skip 20nm while the rest of them get there and instead start popping off your 14nm and 10nm lines in 2015. You go from market share losing to DOMINATION. NV is already about to take the gpu spot in socs with K1 (if rumor is true nexus 10r2 at 1920x1200 made for gaming), and likely cpu vs. qcom even at 20nm when Denver custom cores hit that will clearly lower power and improve performance like swift/snapdragon (Denver is in house custom too, so will be better on power than A15/regular A57 from ARM IP). You could even do an ARM/X86 variant that satisfies both sides in one chip like AMD probably will but yours would be 14/10nm...LOL. Can you imagine a 14nm maxwell vs. AMD's 20nm with them already behind on the power, watts, heat front (and further 2015 a 10nm version! Holy crap man)? 14nm T4i with a modem also? You'd win a lot of designs in android overnight right? If NV was running 14nm by xmas or 10nm 2015 on Intel process Intel would kill everyone instead of continuing to slide like they are now. Although I think Intel would have to pay closer to 2x to get them due to all of NV's gpu patents. It's not just products they're buying, it's 20yrs of gpu patents too which are leading the market and own 65% share of discrete cards and 90% share of workstation pro graphics cards. Intel says 10nm in 2015. They could buy shortly and put out a SOC and GPU on 10nm by then easily. Not sure how fast they could get out 14nm or not for xmas but easily on 10nm in 2015. Apple is switching to some TSMC in 6months-1yr so it won't take intel more than a year to tape something out and produce it (they are the best at this). BOOM. Victory. You don't have to worry about NV kicking your butt on Samsung 20nm/14nm (or even TSMC maybe) etc as android/linux dethrone directx in favor of OpenGL which will surely make devs happy as porting from it is simple to everywhere. You can't buy AMD due to FTC probably. But NV is open season and buy-able and instantly dominant with Intel's process used on NV chips. Not to mention they bring in NV's 500mil/yr which surely grows with a double shrink (not to 20 TSMC but to at worst 14nm and best 10nm in a year INTC process!). That 560mm GPU drops a TON at 14nm or 10nm AND fills the fabs which are now 20% idle and a closed AZ fab. Intel integrated would get good too at 10nm with an NV gpu inside...LOL. Intel then REALLY has an INTEL box. Gpu, board, cpus, SSD even on high end. WOW. That's why samsung gets rich on their phone. Over 65% of the phone is FROM samsung parts. You can exclude anyone else from running your NV cards (Apple I mean) and run everyone over. You'd quickly own the Top500 list and the Green500 list with die shrunk NV parts too. This is the best defensive move money can buy. If you don't win with your own x86 soc, surely you do with a super die shrink on NV's K1/Maxwell, Volta based socs. You really can't lose here as Intel even if it cost you $20bil to get this done. Qcom/Apple/Samsung are pulling down nearly 90Billion a year now and most of that is from MOBILE.
If you don't think Intel would get at least 10B of that in a year or two at 10nm you're smoking crack. NV's purchase even at 20B would pay for itself quickly as you dominate mobile with either x86 or ARM/NV. Not to mention you easily dominate supercomputers with Tesla at 10nm too. NV already has 25mil cars signed up that may use up to 4 chips each (they said this themselves at CES last week but not UP TO, they said 4 period, that's 100mil chips?). How many more cars sign up with Intel's process? This move would turn Qcom into Rimm in 5yrs. NV has a modem already doing 150mbps which only Hong Kong and Singapore use so far AFAIK. Modems, like enterprise email on rimm, are no longer going to be special. It's about the games people. The next generation will be all about games NOT modems which only speed you to your cap faster anyways now. Even at LTE 4G 100mpbs you can't saturate your phone with a 1080p vid. We don't even need 150, but it's not even really rolled out anyway. You'd hit a 2GB cap (that most have) in 2.5minutes...ROFL. That's like 1/2 of a 1080p movie. Even in HK/Singapore they only have a 10GB cap which again is what 2 movies? It's about GAMES now which is why everyone is pumping out phone/tablet gamepads and samsung will ship their next phones with them (why not, probably make them for $10-15, on a subsidized $600 phone that's easy), and why I think google might have dropped res to 1920x1200 for a more game-able nexus 10r2 with T4 over S800. If you're making a game tablet Google would make the move to 12in (rumor) and lower res to 1920x1200 and go with tegrazone games. The 5in/7in/8in whatever don't matter, games look better on the 10-12in with T4 or Kepler. So the delay to switch to either makes sense. Or why didn't we get news in Nov like normal? Why didn't we get nexus 10r2 at CES? Delayed to switch to NV and 12in for games. If Intel bought them they would instantly be in R3 also with K1 at 10nm in 2015 models right? No-brainer.
Either keep losing share to ARM, or buy NV and take over more markets NOW. Removing NV from TSMC surely is a win also, as that's a LOT of chips to lose and die shrunk NV socs will hurt all phone/tablet makers and SOC makers. You wouldn't want to be Apple/Samsung/Qcom with 10nm K1/Maxwell socs floating around in 2015. YIKES!
Solves fab idle problems.
Solves Arm eating x86 problems.
Solves mobile problems period.
Solves NV supercomputer problems.
Solves your crap GPU product problems.
Hurts ALL competition be it fab or mobile device maker or soc maker.
If anyone can explain why I'm wrong please do. I'm posting to see if someone can shred the theory with some data I might have missed. This isn't a request for fanboy posts (I'm actually ANTI-Intel owning any more markets and am PRO AMD vs. Intel, but business is business), this is about finance and business and how to win the war vs. ARM for Intel. Like any of these companies or not, it's how to make money on them throughout the war. If they don't make a move on NV I predict NV becomes Qcom in under 5yrs or at worst takes a HUGE bite from their profits and easily crosses 1B profits (from current $450mil or so, heck you get a lot closer just erasing Tegra stealing 130mil from gpus last Q) in that time if not far more which will send the stock to $26 or higher easily and I think much sooner. I'd say $26+ by the time we see maxwell shipping in PRODUCTS or hear what Volta has in store and demoed (so 2016? Not 2019). Qcom can't win a GPU war with 20yr NV who even Intel couldn't take down and failed twice (i740 gpus, larrabee, crap drivers etc). If apps follow games as google ups android's abilities (and steamboxes woo more to opengl gaming) WINTEL/Consoles goes down fast too as all devs want to be on 2.5B units in 2016 vs. declining 350mil PC's and based on consoles now no longer sold out and on shelves everywhere, they're going down too. It's a new world in under 5yrs. 64bit apps/games will be output from phones/tablets to TV's/Monitors for games or apps with 8GB+ on a subsidized product vs. a PC you have to pay for and an expensive Windows OS vs. FREE android. How do you compete with subsidized PC's called phones/tablets?
You bleed to death or buy NV to make sure YOU are that subsidized device
Right? You can't afford Qcom, Samsung or Apple. The only way to beat them all is via NVDA the current kings of gaming and workstations (again, 65% and 90% of share in those markets) and now putting that gpu prowess in mobile along with their own ARM 64bit CPUS. BUY or DIE Intel. Well they'll just turn into TSMC and fab everything if Wintel goes down - they still have that. Many insiders already want to do this at Intel (fab other stuff I mean, not drop x86 obviously).
Then again, Jen may just say I'll be worth a Billion more in 5-10yrs anyway and since you killed my chipsets I'd rather do to you what I did to 3DFX years ago. Why work for you jerks when I can kill you instead (speaking as him, who supposedly really hates Intel, as much as Intel hates him). He's not old, in great shape, he's got a lot of years left and might figure he could be worth billions 10yrs from now (look at Apple's rise, Qcoms, Samsungs, all on the backs of mobile). If NV becomes a household name via their GPU's in mobile and gaming, at some point you cut everyone else out and make all your tegra tabs, phones etc with only NVIDIA on them right? You're apple then but with google's ecosystem (neither makes money on the store, the break even says apple CFO) so it's all from devices for apple. From ads of course at google, as they break even on devices too at google, not much money in them now & they don't care (they want your eyes until the war shakes out then they'll price us to death on phones/tablets like apple).
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