hotaru.hino
Glorious
Oh right. I forgot Metro Exodus was a thing. It's the only modern AAA game that's fully path traced.lol, no thanks. I didn’t ask for ancient graphics pumped up with modern technology.
The problem I had with your statement is it didn't list any actual requirements. It just said "real path tracing", whatever that means. Since Pixar tends to be used as a benchmark for high-end CGI, well, I used that. Considering their initial stab at Coco needed 1000 hours per frame on a system of unknown spec, with what was presume to be 100% ray tracing and if we want to target 60 FPS, then we would need something that's about 216,000,000 times more powerful than whatever Pixar was using to achieve that. Even if we used the optimized method they settled on (call 50 hours per frame), we're still looking at over 1 million times more powerful.Yeah, no, negative people have said similar things about technology in the past as well and were proven blatantly wrong with their predictions (hi Bill Gates), it’s better to not talk like this about the future. We will see, but I’m cautiously optimistic.
As a point of reference, the RTX 3090 is about 65 times faster than a GeForce 8800 GTX, and there was 12 years between them. You could point out that it only took about 11 years between the first 1 TFLOPS supercomputer and the first graphics card to achieve that, but it's been almost 14 years since the first PFLOPS supercomputer and for the same price of that TFLOPS video card (inflation adjusted), we haven't even hit something with a quarter of that speed. And we've just hit the EFLOPS mark.
I guess what I'm trying to say we're not going to get Pixar levels of quality in real-time any time soon.
In a simplified sense, ray tracing is the best way to render graphics, because it physically simulates light. You can't get more perfect than that.If Ray Tracing isn’t the best way for perfect graphics it will be replaced. Nobody said it is “the” way, it’s just the best graphics we have today and nothing more is certain.
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