Global HDD Supply 70 Million Units Short in Q4 2011

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danielravennest

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On an annual basis the world wants 720 million drives, so the shortage is less than 10% of a year's demand. So everyone delays their next disk purchase by a month, cleans up some unneeded files, and we are good.
 
But some companies and analysts are preparing for the worst. "We could run out of drives by the end of November,"
thailand's flood disaster is really a sad situation. but this looks like a ploy to exploit that situation using scare tactics and grim predictions to raise hdd prices during holiday seasons.
 

cmcghee358

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You're thinking of it too narrowly. Where do 95% of hard drives go to? Not newegg. It goes to the OEM builders. Most PC consumers don't buy independent drives, the drives come with their new PC.
 

cloja

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Here in Peru is really crazy: a Seagate Barracuda 7200.12 SATA III 1TB 6 Gb/s (ST31000524AS) was $72 before and now is $175.00 a 136% increase. =(
 

alidan

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[citation][nom]danielravennest[/nom]On an annual basis the world wants 720 million drives, so the shortage is less than 10% of a year's demand. So everyone delays their next disk purchase by a month, cleans up some unneeded files, and we are good.[/citation]

10% lower but 100-200% higher prices...
 

livebriand

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[citation][nom]de5_roy[/nom]thailand's flood disaster is really a sad situation. but this looks like a ploy to exploit that situation using scare tactics and grim predictions to raise hdd prices during holiday seasons.[/citation]
*sigh* Why must they get the cheap hard drives compared to us? So what if they need it to keep the system prices low? They already bundle a bunch of bloatware, can't that help pay for it? If not, who'll notice a moderate increase in prices of those systems?
 

ltdementhial

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[citation][nom]cloja[/nom]Here in Peru is really crazy: a Seagate Barracuda 7200.12 SATA III 1TB 6 Gb/s (ST31000524AS) was $72 before and now is $175.00 a 136% increase. =([/citation]

here in mexico is worst they where in 67-70 dollars and now they are in 200 bucks...or 250 for 1.5tb...but an external USB 2.0 1.5tb is 112 greens...i bought 1 removed the HDD put an old 250 inside and gifted to my girlfriend xD
 

iamtheking123

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[citation][nom]danielravennest[/nom]On an annual basis the world wants 720 million drives, so the shortage is less than 10% of a year's demand. So everyone delays their next disk purchase by a month, cleans up some unneeded files, and we are good.[/citation]
Your math is wrong. They were short 35% for just this quarter. They weren't short in the previous quarters this year because the factories were full steam (why you get 10% short). If we're short 35% another 3 quarters (which we will be according to estimates of when production will resume) then it means we'll be short 35% of a year's demand (4 quarters).

35% short isn't enough to justify the massive price increases though. The price increase is a result of the shortage in production being exacerbated by vendors hoarding supplies using their OEM status to muscle out newegg shoppers.

But still I'm wondering who the hell buys 700 million hard drives a year. I've bought 2 internal drives in the last 3 years.
 

_Cubase_

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[citation][nom]ltdementhial[/nom]here in mexico is worst they where in 67-70 dollars and now they are in 200 bucks...or 250 for 1.5tb...but an external USB 2.0 1.5tb is 112 greens...i bought 1 removed the HDD put an old 250 inside and gifted to my girlfriend xD[/citation]

Here in America we don't tolerate that kind of crap... sir!
 
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[citation][nom]_Cubase_[/nom]Here in America we don't tolerate that kind of crap... sir![/citation]

I think that kind of crap isn't tolerated anywhere...
 

iamtheking123

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[citation][nom]Pazero01[/nom]I think that kind of crap isn't tolerated anywhere...[/citation]
A lot of countries bend over for it. A lot of gadgets that are "cheap" in the US are insanely expensive elsewhere in the world (usually because of crazy high import taxes).
 
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The drives arent cheap in the U.S. either, I got a 2 tb drive for 89 bucks a few months back, same drive 199 now, and now only seeing 320gig or smaller for 99 or more.
 

ojas

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[citation][nom]iamtheking123[/nom]A lot of countries bend over for it. A lot of gadgets that are "cheap" in the US are insanely expensive elsewhere in the world (usually because of crazy high import taxes).[/citation]
That's true...best example is south asia...

Wasn't so bad in India last month...problem i cant give you prices in dollars because the exchange rate has fallen (in the dollar's favour) since august...but yeah prices are up 100% across the board. A 1TB HDD would cost about Rs.2600...right now a 500GB drive costs anywhere b/w 5000 to 6000 rupees...
 

teodoreh

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Thailand flooding for magnetic disks will end up being the same thing as huge meteor towards earth for Dinosaurs. I already sell SSDs for repaired laptops, because nowadays a 64GB module costs the same as a 160-250GB 2.5" HDD!

The tragic that no-one (mostly Seagate - WD) can't see, is that by giving high priorities on their permanent customers, the screw up the 2nd grade OEMs and distributors. And those distributors keep the remaining HDDs for their OEM PCs and screw the retail and small shops. So, before a couple of months, you could buy a 2TB disk for 60€+VAT, now the biggest distributors in my country sell 2TB disks for 125€+VAT, which is >100% increase in price! WTF!



 

shqtth

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I think HDD shortage will help SSDs come down in price, as there is now a need created for SSDs to be more then 256MB due to no large capacity HDDs available to use as secondary drives (or primary)
 

shqtth

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Its cheaper to buy an external HDD and put it in the PC. Externals have not gone up in price, i guess there is a lot of stock of externals left at retail stores.
 

srgess

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only seagate got flood, wtf the other compagny do exploit that situation, i dont know the sale of seagate but i doubt they were on the top sale hdd, on the retailer side.
 

amk-aka-Phantom

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[citation][nom]ojas[/nom]That's true...best example is south asia...Wasn't so bad in India last month...problem i cant give you prices in dollars because the exchange rate has fallen (in the dollar's favour) since august...but yeah prices are up 100% across the board. A 1TB HDD would cost about Rs.2600...right now a 500GB drive costs anywhere b/w 5000 to 6000 rupees...[/citation]

That's right. I got my 500GB Seagate for Rs. 1950 in March, and now it costs Rs. 4900... so $40 vs. $100. JUST before the prices went up I was thinking of a second HDD for RAID just for the hell of it, but now I'd rather spend that kind of money on a nice SSD.
 
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