The price will also fall quickly along with the mass of solutions.
Optical networking transceivers
are a mass product, I'm sure with many millions sold, annually!
Thanks for the links. Nowhere does it say what bandwidth they support, but I'd guess it's probably not very high. The video signal they're transmitting over it is
definitely compressed. For instance, UHD blu-ray (4k) has a max sustained bitrate of only 144 Mbps (18 MB/s), which is like 0.1% of what you'd need for the 8k 120 Hz @ 36 bpp.
Actually, considering how good UHD blu-rays look, I don't really get why you're so concerned about DSC. Such a modest compression ratio shouldn't be noticeable at such a resolution.
In general, it is obvious that the age of copper as a signal cable is coming to an end and the industry has been needing to massively accustom consumers to the idea of switching to optics for several years now and develop cheap mass solutions for 300-500 Gbit/s for starters.
In the past, I would've agreed. But then Cat 8 doing 40 Gbps (full-duplex) at 30m its pretty compelling evidence to the contrary.
Another important thing - if you have a 1 Tb/s channel, you can take the GPU out of the computer case (hello to everyone with a 5090 heater at 575 W) into a separate room (for example, a utility room with ventilation)
You don't need 1 Tb/s. PCIe 4.0 x16 is only 256 Gbps and already more than fast enough for even the top-end gaming cards. However, the solution you're proposing sounds very expensive and niche. I don't foresee a large enough market to make it happen.
And also connect disk arrays in NAS via this channel
Well, a NAS is networked, so just put the whole thing wherever you want. However, if you really want to disaggregate the physical storage, you can currently use Fiber Channel (which is the high-end, expensive solution) or iSCSI (which can run over commodity Ethernet). For storage, 10 Gbps is more than enough. Cat 6A cable can support such speeds at up to 100m.
prices - they are deliberately kept high for individuals,
If you're making accusations of collusion on pricing, you should provide some evidence.
especially since this is now far from a mass case. In mass production they will fall 10 times at once and 2 transmitters for $20 in hardware for 500Gbps-1Tbps will clearly not be a financial problem, especially against the backdrop of increasingly insane prices for GPUs and everything else...
You're contradicting yourself, here. If mass production were a magic bullet, then GPUs should cost far less.
Optical networking already
is a commodity, but for commercial, industrial, and professional markets. There's plenty of volume, already. And when big customers like Google buy millions of something, you'd better believe they negotiate the price down to within a hair of it costs to produce in volume. We may not have the same pricing power, but we benefit from the production efficiencies they drive.
There could even be a contrary phenomenon, where increasing volume could actually
increase prices, if these high-bandwidth transceivers turn out to use significant amounts of rare earth metals that are in limited supply. I won't rule out the possibility that we'll see breakthroughs in this area, particularly as servers begin to embrace optical interconnects for connectivity
within the chassis, but it's just not obvious to me that driving down prices is simply a matter of more volume.
Someday, we might indeed transition over to optical cables for these sorts of applications, but it looks to me like it's at least a ways off, yet.