Intel: 10nm Is Not Dead (It's Getting Better)

hannibal

Distinguished
Apr 1, 2004
2,266
25
19,840
14
Intel has so much money that next 10nm may be completely new version. And this time they did it right. If it is so interesting to see what changes they did to make their 10nm to work this time. Ofcourse they could be lying, but as it has been said in the article. It would have dire consequences...
All in all they are late, but considering the competitive situation it is good that the playing field has leveled somewhat!
 

jimmysmitty

Champion
Moderator
The biggest problem with Charlie is that he claims this without providing anything tangible. He has in the past predicted doom and gloom for nVidia and yet nvidia is doing very well and is the top of the GPU market currently. He did the same for intel many years ago.

He claims to have "trusted moles" but again provides no evidence other than what he is being told yet no one else is being told it. We only know Intels 10nm is delayed because they state it. No other site reports anything like this, only Charlie does.

Honestly he is near impossible to trust. In his past he has shown bias and I think he is over playing his hand.
 

dudmont

Reputable
Feb 23, 2015
1,404
0
5,660
198


I'm not familiar with his writings, is he a "red" team guy? When it comes to bias/hypocrisy, I always run the simple, but effective mind test called, "shoe on the other foot"(switch the teams in the discussion and see if you'd still be where you are, if not, then you're probably being biased). It's especially helpful in this highly charged political climate, but it works for tech discussions too.
 

jimmysmitty

Champion
Moderator


He used to write for the Inquirer and I would say he has a slight red team bias.

Typically I ignore his rantings but they have picked up favor with people due to him "predicting" Intel 10nm delays. My issue is that he never provides any solid evidence of his claims. If he did I would be more than happy to accept more of his "insight" but otherwise he is s just talking to talk.

He might want to be careful though as something like this could cause stockholder backlash for Intel and in turn they could sue him for libel if it is not true information.
 

racksmith101

Commendable
Apr 20, 2018
656
0
1,210
111
From what has come up in conversation with some people I know in the chip design and fabrication industry, Intel's current design doesn't scale down to 10nm very well the yield rate was incredibly low.
 

ET3D

Distinguished
Mar 12, 2012
76
0
18,630
0


I'm not sure about that, but he's definitely anti-NVIDIA and anti-Intel. He always tends to predict doom and gloom for them, which sometimes comes true, as would naturally happen when one keeps predicting something.
 

stratoz99

Prominent
Aug 12, 2017
2
0
510
0
Is this a 10nm physicly or might it be under 10nm if the process allows it ? dont feel right to "develope" an old process in my mind and Intel never struck me as unstrategic ?
 

t.s.wiacek

Prominent
Dec 19, 2017
23
0
510
0
Four years of delays and still having problems. No one at Intel knew AMD is working on something that might be a threat to their monopoly?
I support AMD, even though I own laptop with Intel processor. It's entertaining to see both companies compete against each other. Someone at Intel was feeling way too secure and neglected important things. I just can't wrap my head around their problems any other way.
 

dudmont

Reputable
Feb 23, 2015
1,404
0
5,660
198
I'm not sure bias matters that much, if you have the facts to back it up. But it always helps to know the bias of the reporter. In regards to evidence, I would concur, I won't take any allegation seriously if it can't be backed up with facts, be it delays in CPU releases or allegations against prospective judges........
 

InvalidError

Titan
Moderator
Intel making progress towards making 10nm viable doesn't mean that we'll get full-scale 10nm production or even a full lineup of 10nm products any time soon. In all likelihood, the highest margin products will get first dibs.
 

jimmysmitty

Champion
Moderator


Correct. If this was unchallenged and their stock tanked then heads would roll.



Intels 10nm is "equivalent" to the rest of the industries 7nm much like their 14nm is equivalent to the industries 10/12nm. A lot of it has become marketing for the term rather than actual size.



Of coruse Intel expected AMD to at some point to become competitive. They of course had no idea when as the last time they proclaimed equal performance it didn't quite stand up to that test (FX series based on Bulldozer).

I don't think its so much as neglecting something but rather a pretty hard task. Intel has been the industry leader in process tech for a while. Their process tech is also typically better than equivalent process tech. They tend to push the boundaries. The current thought is that Intel was pushing for quite a bit with 10nm and its something thats put them in a bit of an awkward position.



Bias can matter. With Charlie it shows. Look up his past articles. As I said not too long ago he predicted nVidia was destined to fail. I can't remember him really making any about AMD but maybe he just doesn't have any "moles" inside AMD.



I would predict server and HPC first then laptops/mobile. Desktops will probably come last as it would be to me the lowest margin market as volume for mobile/laptops has to be more than desktop.
 

InvalidError

Titan
Moderator

Intel isn't only about x86 CPUs. I bet it has many customers already lined up for high-end Altera 10nm FPGAs costing thousands of dollars a pop much like Xeon E5.
 

jimmysmitty

Champion
Moderator


Yup. As well they manufacture NICs, WiFi chips etc. They have their hands in a lot of the PC world and having 10nm would be a benefit. It would probably at least ease up on 14nm to allow that to be migrated to chipsets and other non high margin devices while 10nm rolls out to the high margin market.
 
Aug 9, 2018
8
0
10
0
4 years delay on an Intel core ability thats been on the plan for 8 years and was foreseeable since 1950...
It simply means it does not work and will be ditched and the fiscal year will end in Dec. 3 months away. I think this is the baseline and Demerjan is on to something.
 

s1mon7

Proper
Oct 3, 2018
94
4
135
0
What has to be understood is that "making a stride towards 10nm" and "relaxing the design so it looks more like 12nm (by Intel standards)" are not mutually exclusive and I bet they are both true. The goals forced by Intel higher-ups for the 10nm process were ridiculous and didn't have much to do with having a 10nm process, but having a denser 10nm process. When we first heard about them at SemiAccurate, everyone except of Intel execs and investors pretty much knew that they are not tangible, at least not as the next, quick step from their 14nm node. In that regard, the SemiAccurate "predictions" were considered to be obvious there.

If you look at TSMC, they had a 10nm process but the Intel 10nm process would be denser, to the point it would in practice be like TSMC's 7nm process that scales even better for high-performance chips.
After all those years, I think they realized that they had to relax the original requirements to release the process after all. As a result, I think we will simply see a "less-than-expected" 10nm process by Intel standards, but it will be a 10nm process nonetheless. I think the relaxed design requirements will simply mean that TSMC will have an edge here for the first time, or at least be equally competitive. Maybe 10nm++ or +++ will be closer to what Intel originally wanted. I'm 99.9% sure that's exactly what Intel is doing now to release something on a reliable 10nm process before it's too late, even if it's not technically a process they wanted yet and in reality closer to something in between their 14nm process and the 10nm process they wanted (thus SA calling it "12nm").
 

jimmysmitty

Champion
Moderator


Probably but depending on how well Intel can get 7nm, or rather how fast, we might not see 10nm for very long.

Unless they come across some other miracle tech that they have been keeping hush hush.
 

bit_user

Splendid
Herald

You're treating the private side of his paywall like it doesn't even exist.

He's a "doom and gloom" guy, which is to say he always sensationalizes the negatives. But, when it comes to provable facts, he actually has a surprisingly good track record.

My guess is that, if you could see the full story, then the rest might say that Intel is working on a new 10 nm process, probably based on EUV.
 

bit_user

Splendid
Herald

What do you honestly expect to see? Mostly, the internet rumor mill is without hard evidence. That's why you have to look at someone's track record. And his track record covers a lot more than Intel's 10 nm delays.
 

Karadjgne

Titan
Herald
Meaning you see CannonLake as a 'Broadwell 2.0' and IceLake as a more realistic successor to CoffeeLake to finish out lga1151v2, bringing out the 7nm in time for the 11th gen cpus and new platform.
 

jimmysmitty

Champion
Moderator


Maybe. Maybe not. Unless we work there and have insider information we have to wait to see what they do. It is either the same process but they have worked out the yield issues or the same process with relaxed density allowing for better yields. I guess we shall see in the next few months depending on what information Intel releases.



How about instead of using a paywall to keep it away he puts the evidence out there? Why is it when he makes a story like this no one else does? Why is he somehow the only person with contacts, or as he put it "moles", inside the largest semiconductor manufacture in the world?

It could be that he is good at analyzing information and taking it and making a very good guess. As I said before he has predicted a number of things incorrectly and is almost always one sided in said predictions.

The way he is putting it is that if Intel doesn't ditch 10nm they are screwed. I hardly remember him stating the same when AMD was bleeding cash, for years mind you. He said similar things about nVidia when they had some delays yet again nVidia is the top of the GPU market.

I guess after seeing the same bias and stuff its hard to trust a guy who hides any relevant information behind a paywall, especially when he got refuted within hours of posting the story from the company itself. That alone puts him into question.
 

ASK THE COMMUNITY

TRENDING THREADS