News Intel Looks to Be Catching Up with AMD's Discrete GPU Market Share

[Admin]

AMD and Intel shipped around 1.2 million standalone GPUs each in Q4 2022, according to estimates.

Intel Looks to Be Catching Up with AMD's Discrete GPU Market Share : Read more

 

[PlaneInTheSky]

I won't buy any GPU until shader compilation stuttering is fixed on PC .

Wo Long Fallen Dynasty is launching tomorrow, and the demo I played was another shader compile stutterfest.

After the 4th PC game I played from 2023, with stutters, I really had enough. I have started to buy all my games on PS5.

 

[kerberos_20]

well they mixed notebooks with those dGPU results...intel doesnt have to stuff nvidia/amd in notebooks anymore

desktop story shouldnt have that much traction....unless there was some big order for chinese PC caffes

 

[-Fran-]

Just to point this out, but... Shipped units is NOT equivalent to SOLD units, which imply "market share". GPUs on store shelves are not getting used and do not represent someone replacing one brand for another. Sure, a supplier bought them, but it doesn't mean that is going to be a trend going forward if they stay on shelves in the long run (just to point out: this apply to all of them, obviously).

If you can find evidence that shipped GPUs correlate 1:1 to sold ones then that would make more sense to me, otherwise this is misleading as heck.

Regards.

 

[PEnns]

Just to point this out, but... Shipped units is NOT equivalent to SOLD units, which imply "market share". GPUs on store shelves are not getting used and do not represent someone replacing one brand for another. Sure, a supplier bought them, but it doesn't mean that is going to be a trend going forward if they stay on shelves in the long run (just to point out: this apply to all of them, obviously).

If you can find evidence that shipped GPUs correlate 1:1 to sold ones then that would make more sense to me, otherwise this is misleading as heck.

Regards.

Exactly.

There are tons of warehouses stuffed with merchandise that nobody ever bought!!

 

[JamesJones44]

Exactly.

There are tons of warehouses stuffed with merchandise that nobody ever bought!!

Most companies don't pre-stuff warehouses these days. That usually only happens these days when a retailer mis-judges the market, in which case they would be sales by the producing company. I can't say that is the case here, but I can't image any modern company pre-producing millions of product without knowing there is demand for the product like they did back before the 2000s.

 

[Amdlova]

I'm waiting the stalker 2 launch, if works good on intel gpu I will get one 770.

 

[healthy Pro-teen]

I'm waiting the stalker 2 launch, if works good on intel gpu I will get one 770.

Personally, the AMD 6650XT has better Performance, is more stable, and costs less. Intel will get my money when (or If) they will be better value for money.

 

[dalek1234]

I won't buy any GPU until shader compilation stuttering is fixed on PC .
.... I have started to buy all my games on PS5.

There is an interesting comment on Broken Silicon, why the stuttering is there on PC but not on PS5, plus a potential solution:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iFwtE2fh-y0


Watch these two segments from his time-index menu:

16:48 Are recent "bad console ports" in reality a sign of things changing?
25:03 Should Devs require NVMe 3.0 SSDs and 32GB of RAM?

 

[dalek1234]

"shipped" doesn't mean "sold". In fact, a few retailers mentioned by Moore's Law is Dead said that newest gen AMD is outselling Nvidia's, and Intel's graphics cars are sitting on helves with hardly anybody buying them.

 

[JarredWaltonGPU]

Most companies don't pre-stuff warehouses these days. That usually only happens these days when a retailer mis-judges the market, in which case they would be sales by the producing company. I can't say that is the case here, but I can't image any modern company pre-producing millions of product without knowing there is demand for the product like they did back before the 2000s.

This is the "business as usual" state of affairs, but right now things are NOT in that state. There's plenty of evidence that sell-in and sell-out are unbalanced and that inventories have increased substantially in some cases. I would wager heavily that Intel Arc GPUs have a lot of sell-in and much lower sell-out, probably Intel stuffing the channel at OEMs in particular with relatively cheap Arc GPUs. It makes their numbers look way better than they are, for example. We'll have to see what happens in the coming months. I can't imagine Intel is continuing to produce a ton of Arc wafers at TSMC, given they cut the price of the A750 by $40 just a couple of months after launch. That's a clear indication that the parts aren't selling fast.

 

[JamesJones44]

This is the "business as usual" state of affairs, but right now things are NOT in that state. There's plenty of evidence that sell-in and sell-out are unbalanced and that inventories have increased substantially in some cases. I would wager heavily that Intel Arc GPUs have a lot of sell-in and much lower sell-out, probably Intel stuffing the channel at OEMs in particular with relatively cheap Arc GPUs. It makes their numbers look way better than they are, for example. We'll have to see what happens in the coming months. I can't imagine Intel is continuing to produce a ton of Arc wafers at TSMC, given they cut the price of the A750 by $40 just a couple of months after launch. That's a clear indication that the parts aren't selling fast.

Stuffing channels with a 100k or so that way each region has ample initial supply I could buy. Stuffing channels with 1.1 million, that's not normal for any company in this day in age by a long shot. Companies simply don't do that any longer, plenty of evidence out there for people to look into.

I agree though that if Intel slashes TSMC production or leave it the way it is will be a good tell.

 

[edzieba]

I won't buy any GPU until shader compilation stuttering is fixed on PC .

Shader stuttering is a game-specific issue (specifically, implementation of game engine behaviour), not a GPU hardware issue. A GPU hardware change can no more 'fix stuttering' than GPU hardware could adjust aim assist behaviour.

 

[JarredWaltonGPU]

Stuffing channels with a 100k or so that way each region has ample initial supply I could buy. Stuffing channels with 1.1 million, that's not normal for any company in this day in age by a long shot. Companies simply don't do that any longer, plenty of evidence out there for people to look into.

I agree though that if Intel slashes TSMC production or leave it the way it is will be a good tell.

They don't normally do that, but look at what Intel is doing in the CPU realm. They are absolutely overproducing and pounding AMD on pricing for a lot of their current Raptor Lake parts. The ASP on Intel CPUs dropped but they are winning back market share. And that's a market where Intel at least is relatively competitive. If they're willing to do that for CPUs, what would they do to try and capture graphics market share?

 

[JamesJones44]

They don't normally do that, but look at what Intel is doing in the CPU realm. They are absolutely overproducing and pounding AMD on pricing for a lot of their current Raptor Lake parts. The ASP on Intel CPUs dropped but they are winning back market share. And that's a market where Intel at least is relatively competitive. If they're willing to do that for CPUs, what would they do to try and capture graphics market share?

I don't understand the logic to why one would do this, you could simply cut prices and ramp demand if it comes. It doesn't make sense to produce 1.1 million GPUs and then cut prices in hopes that they sell. I'm not saying Intel wouldn't do this, but in this day and age that would be a walk the CEO and board out the door offense, so the idea just seems crazy. If someone argued closer to 50% of those numbers were pre-channel fills I could at least chuck it up to maybe they just misread the channels or that was TSMCs minimum run or had a massive cancellation or something. Producing 1.1 million to try to show they are catching up only to have to say "oh crap, our GPU division is taking a billion dollar write down due to producing too much inventory" would be insane is all I'm saying .

BTW I have no love for Intel, nor am I saying there is no way Intel wouldn't do this, just the idea seems crazy

 

[JarredWaltonGPU]

I don't understand the logic to why one would do this, you could simply cut prices and ramp demand if it comes. It doesn't make sense to produce 1.1 million GPUs and then cut prices in hopes that they sell. I'm not saying Intel wouldn't do this, but in this day and age that would be a walk the CEO and board out the door offense, so the idea just seems crazy. If someone argued closer to 50% of those numbers were pre-channel fills I could at least chuck it up to maybe they just misread the channels or that was TSMCs minimum run or had a massive cancellation or something. Producing 1.1 million to try to show they are catching up only to have to say "oh crap, our GPU division is taking a billion dollar write down due to producing too much inventory" would be insane is all I'm saying .

BTW I have no love for Intel, nor am I saying there is no way Intel wouldn't do this, just the idea seems crazy

It depends at least in part on things like when the GPUs were ordered vs. when they were ready. Imagine Intel ordering, as an example, 1.1 million ACM-G10 chips from TSMC in early to mid 2021. It anticipates shipping those by late 2021, maybe early 2022 at worst. But "at worst" ends up being incredibly wrong and the cards and drivers aren't actually ready until late 2022. Now, Intel's already taking a beating, because no matter how it tries to spin it, it's a node behind TSMC. When your financials already look that bad, perhaps dumping everything quickly might not be so bad.

Intel needs its "Intel 5" and "Intel 3" processes done, last year. Full stop. It can rebrand 10nm Enhanced SuperFIN as Intel 7 all it wants; it's at best competitive with TSMC N7, and TSMC is doing N5 while N3 is basically ready for Apple. It may have gotten a million Arc GPUs ready a year later than it wanted, and sitting on them isn't going to cause them to become more enticing. It's losing market share in servers and desktops. Basically, 2025 is the best-case for Intel starting to become more like the "old Intel" that investors loved.

 

[JarredWaltonGPU]

 

[renz496]

well they mixed notebooks with those dGPU results...intel doesnt have to stuff nvidia/amd in notebooks anymore

desktop story shouldnt have that much traction....unless there was some big order for chinese PC caffes

that is the reality that intel want to happen. but OEM for the most part still look at what consumer want. consumer want nvidia GPU inside their laptop and that is what OEM going to put inside their laptop. that's why intel attempt to displace nvidia on the mid range laptop with Kaby lake G does not really work before.

 

[renz496]

"shipped" doesn't mean "sold". In fact, a few retailers mentioned by Moore's Law is Dead said that newest gen AMD is outselling Nvidia's, and Intel's graphics cars are sitting on helves with hardly anybody buying them.

maybe but you can't really trust everything that he said. in the past i still remember he insisting that AMD RX6000 series end up out selling nvidia RTX 30 series during RX6000 launch when we know how bad AMD GPU supply at the time when ryzen 3000 and console which got more priority than GPU.