First, you need to grasp Intel's financial situation. That company is financially very very fragile right now.
Basically, at the end of Q1, Intel had $14.0 billion cash+short term investment, but also had $9.8 billion payments due, leaving only $4.2 billion net cash. But, Intel also had $2.6 billion of debt. Intel has 103K people to feed, they consume $3 billion per quarter. In 1Q06, Intel's free cash flow was only $0.3 billion.
For 2Q06, we heard enough bad news already. Intel stuffed the channel in Q1 and stuffed more in Q2 ( http://www.theinquirer.net/?article=32136 ). Intel CPUs prices crashed 40% and volume fell 21%. If Intel posts an operating loss for 2Q06, don't be surprised.
For 3Q06, the situation is even worse. Intel will slash Netbust price further, yet it won't be able to supply enough Conroes. DELL has no way to go, but AMD (see http://www.theinquirer.net/?article=32536 ). AMD is ramping production like crazy. AMD's unit output will increase by 50% in Q3. Intel will have lower prices and lower units for 3Q06. Operating loss is in the bag.
For 4Q06, Intel expects to ramp Conroe to 25% of the units. Unfortunately, by then, AMD's 65nm Rev G will be out. Intel will be still stuck with a huge pile of Netbust chips. Eventually, Intel will have to write off most of those and record massive losses.
Then comes 2007. K8L and Bulldozer will be out. Game over for Intel.
If you also consider stuff like impairment on goodwill, write off assets and other losses, Intel is simply in a hopeless situation.
Basically, at the end of Q1, Intel had $14.0 billion cash+short term investment, but also had $9.8 billion payments due, leaving only $4.2 billion net cash. But, Intel also had $2.6 billion of debt. Intel has 103K people to feed, they consume $3 billion per quarter. In 1Q06, Intel's free cash flow was only $0.3 billion.
For 2Q06, we heard enough bad news already. Intel stuffed the channel in Q1 and stuffed more in Q2 ( http://www.theinquirer.net/?article=32136 ). Intel CPUs prices crashed 40% and volume fell 21%. If Intel posts an operating loss for 2Q06, don't be surprised.
For 3Q06, the situation is even worse. Intel will slash Netbust price further, yet it won't be able to supply enough Conroes. DELL has no way to go, but AMD (see http://www.theinquirer.net/?article=32536 ). AMD is ramping production like crazy. AMD's unit output will increase by 50% in Q3. Intel will have lower prices and lower units for 3Q06. Operating loss is in the bag.
For 4Q06, Intel expects to ramp Conroe to 25% of the units. Unfortunately, by then, AMD's 65nm Rev G will be out. Intel will be still stuck with a huge pile of Netbust chips. Eventually, Intel will have to write off most of those and record massive losses.
Then comes 2007. K8L and Bulldozer will be out. Game over for Intel.
If you also consider stuff like impairment on goodwill, write off assets and other losses, Intel is simply in a hopeless situation.