News Leading DRAM makers may stop producing DDR4 and DDR3 by late 2025

[Admin]

Increased competition from Chinese makers may force leading DRAM makers to phase out DDR3 and DDR5 SDRAM by end of the year.

Leading DRAM makers may stop producing DDR4 and DDR3 by late 2025 : Read more

 

[logainofhades]

I figured DDR3 production ended a long time ago.

 

[Pierce2623]

CXMT had decent performing ddr4 modules. They were much better than Samsung C die but not in the same league as Samsung b die obviously.

 

[Anth]

Would the solution not be for entry-level motherboards to be released with DDR5 support?

 

[bit_user]

Would the solution not be for entry-level motherboards to be released with DDR5 support?

There are zillions of embedded devices which still use DDR3 and DDR4 DRAM. Just think about everything that has an embedded computing capability more complex than a simple microcontroller - cars, routers, TVs, industrial equipment, etc. Heck, even a lot of SSDs have embedded DRAM! This is not only about PCs and servers.

And while some of them could switch to DDR5, a lot of them are using CPUs that are still perfectly fine for their intended task and don't support DDR5.

FWIW, I don't exactly know how much of those markets are served by Nanya and Windbond, but I'm sure not all of it.

 

[mitch074]

I'm perplexed : if Chinese companies can sell those RAM chips for so cheap, what's the risk, exactly ? Those are mature technologies using outdated processes, thus there is little added value to them... The Big Ones getting out of the market is, as such, not unexpected. But the article mentions that the Chinese companies may not be able to meet market demands : why wouldn't they ? Because of a possible US embargo ? China can now domestically produce petty much everything up to 14nm processes, including the machines needed for this kind of production - if there's demand for cheap DDR3/DDR3L/DDR4 chips, they sure as heck can meet it, and if demand goes up (likely, as domestic demand alone could drive it), they can increase capacity without needing to wait on anybody.

 

[bit_user]

I'm perplexed : if Chinese companies can sell those RAM chips for so cheap, what's the risk, exactly ?

The article mentions that they might be selling at below-cost to drive others out of the market. Then, in the resulting shortage (because the Chinese producers can't adequately satisfy demand by themselves) prices will surge and make the devices using them more expensive.

But the article mentions that the Chinese companies may not be able to meet market demands : why wouldn't they ?

It's just a matter of scale. They're looking at production volumes of all the existing producers and what fabs the Chinese makers have, in order to determine there's a mismatch. Just because it's China we're talking about doesn't mean they can snap their fingers (if they even wanted to) and scale up overnight. Worse, they could cut off DRAM for export first, thereby benefiting their domestic OEMs and hurting foreign consumers disproportionately.

 

[Pierce2623]

CXMT had decent performing ddr4 modules. They were much better than Samsung C die but not in the same league as Samsung b die obviously.

There are zillions of embedded devices which still use DDR3 and DDR4 DRAM. Just think about everything that has an embedded computing capability more complex than a simple microcontroller - cars, routers, TVs, industrial equipment, etc. Heck, even a lot of SSDs have embedded DRAM! This is not only about PCs and servers.

And while some of them could switch to DDR5, a lot of them are using CPUs that are still perfectly fine for their intended task and don't support DDR5.

FWIW, I don't exactly know how much of those markets are served by Nanya and Windbond, but I'm sure not all of it.

There’s even a vibrant market of tiny ARM based emulation handhelds using mostly DDR3 as well and collectively those ship millions of units a year. A ton of lower end phones haven’t gotten on ddr5 either.

 

[bezmozachen]

I figured DDR3 production ended a long time ago.

I still design devices with SDRAM (not DDR, DDR2, or DDR3), and it is still in production.

 

[usertests]

I'm not saying my HTPC needs 64 GB of DDR4, but I will do it if it's like $50.

 

[LolaGT]

I don't see any problem, outside of the big names lamenting about being beat at their own game. As long as their is a demand for it, someone will step in.
The retro guys will be happy to buy it if it works, I have seen the odd name DDR3 2400 ram recently and it gets enough real reviews that it works as it should that I would not hesitate to try it.
Also, there are still boatloads of people on ivy bridge and haswell machines for their daily driver still, because they run windows just fine.

 

[mitch074]

The article mentions that they might be selling at below-cost to drive others out of the market. Then, in the resulting shortage (because the Chinese producers can't adequately satisfy demand by themselves) prices will surge and make the devices using them more expensive.


It's just a matter of scale. They're looking at production volumes of all the existing producers and what fabs the Chinese makers have, in order to determine there's a mismatch. Just because it's China we're talking about doesn't mean they can snap their fingers (if they even wanted to) and scale up overnight. Worse, they could cut off DRAM for export first, thereby benefiting their domestic OEMs and hurting foreign consumers disproportionately.

That's quite an hypothesis - and as "communist" as the PRC is, there's one thing no one can teach the Chinese : how to do business. Selling at a loss to drive competitors out of a market ? OK, that's one tactic, but one that needs very deep coffers to enable. Selling with very thin margins to get better on return on investment on tech that's only recently been acquired ? That's more likely - but it's also far more sustainable.
So, I'd wager that, since DDR3 and DDR4 are still in demand, require relatively recent processes to manufacture but are also quite simple structure-wise, these companies may be test running production lines at industrial capacity - ending up with a bunch of RAM actually working. Now, for sure, some of that manufacturing capacity will end up re-routed to more costly designs, but if demand for DDR3 and DDR4 comes back, I don't think any Chinese hardware maker would let go of that kind of deal...

 

[bit_user]

Selling at a loss to drive competitors out of a market ? OK, that's one tactic, but one that needs very deep coffers to enable.

It's been well-documented that China is pouring vast amounts of subsidies into their semiconductor industry, lately. The country is also in an economic recession, which is surely helping with cost control.

 

[mitch074]

It's been well-documented that China is pouring vast amounts of subsidies into their semiconductor industry, lately. The country is also in an economic recession, which is surely helping with cost control.

Subsides are part and parcel of any activity - but even in big, bad China they need something in front to budgetise them : be it through the acquisition of machines, writeoffs on R&D expenses, workers' training... The worst case could be "buying a sack of aeronautical grade bolts for $80K instead of $100", but even then one need SOMETHING to put in front of it. And Chinese people know their accounting, it's been a tradition for more than a couple thousand years with them.
As for the recession, they are having one - inasmuch as the price of edibles has gone massively down and unemployment for young people is high, but on the other hand, the price of manufactured goods (like RAM) has gone up. Meaning, China isn't in a deflation spiral (which would be bad, indeed), and it is seeing a small growth rate.
So, I see your point, but I'm not so sure it's as valid as you'd think. Note : I'm basing my answer on a French economic newspaper article : https://www.latribune.fr/economie/i...un-rythme-jamais-vu-depuis-14-ans-990019.html

 

[Pename]

With Deepseek, there will be a surge of demand for cheap memory running on cheap GPUs inferencing in not for profit organizations and cost centers.