i totally understand what he means. hes emphasizing the use and connectivity of portable devices and picturing the whole world with blazing fast internet and easy accessibility everywhere you go..doesn't mean PC's will go away. its a goal that will take a very long time to achieve but im very sure it could happen. However my only concern is what happens when you CAN'T get away from technology. I really hope in the future there is still ways to get away from all this for at least a brief moment..gotta remember, i grew up in the 90s!
I dont know about everyone else but I am kinda getting tired of big shot tech people saying PC's are dying or everything will be wireless cloud computing and cloud based software, I agree with the cloud storage and software to an extent but I do not think it will be ubiquitous. Cloud PC's indeed a good vision of the future but is so far off to the average user its almost like sci-fy, flying cars, unicorns and fairy dust. Seems like at least once a month someone comes out and says the same thing, IMHO they all need a reality check. This requires infrastructure that is several years in the very best case senario and decade(s) at worst.
Even if this does at some point become a reality, do you want to trust your PC's ability to function as you wish to a remote server and a private company which needs to be 100% reliable and safe to store your software and important files?
There will always be the need for an interface on hand to opperate and with the advancement in smaller and smaller microarchitecture processes why put the rest of the hardware at a remote location when it can be just as easily there on hand more reliably and safer.
If you ask me advancment in technology will make his ideas obsolete before they are even implemented or adopted.
I can see a future like that, but like in another 25 years. Not only does the tech have to be small, portable, and powerful. It's going to have to be cheap to meet the mass populace. So don't say goodbye to your PC just yet.
As much as I love my hand built rig, he's right.
What do I invision as the future of computing? Nothing but dummy terminals. We can do our banking, gaming, chatting, everything from dummy terminals.
Cheap and mass produced, every home will have one. with a mobile version for all.
Just think, your computer is nothing more than a 30" 5mm thick OLED with a discreet keyboard. The mobile version either being in a cellphone/tablet fashion, or a more direct accessory, such as a armband with a thin, light, durable and cheaply replaceable touchscreen.
Were we no longer have to worry about updating, upgrading, anything. You want to play Crysis on your phone? Then do it. Servers in every city to handle anything requiring low latency, and international servers to handle the heavy stuff.
Maybe I'm just crazy, but I see a world were everyone has what they need. No worrying about whether you should spend $500 or $2000 on a laptop, if it breaks whether or not you can afford to fix it, no worrying whether your phone will run that app for you or not. Were you don't have to cancel your internet just so you can afford groceries when times hit you hard.
A world were everything just works.
I'm shooting for the stars, how about you? Microsoft and Macintosh have enough power and money to help us a least start the changes, but without their support, it will likely take 50 years more or just never happen.
It's not n[citation][nom]rohitbaran[/nom]Well, it is very distant vision, but a good one.[/citation]
Distant? It's two years before EVERYONE realizes that they only need a fast computer for work or playing games. Netbooks that wirelessly connect to TVs/monitors (although most monitors will have speakers) will be common in three years--making a desk with a keyboard and monitor all you need. And I think most of us know Linux is perfect for a netbook. It's five years until PC's are exclusively top-of-the-line customizable game boxes with an open (or Windows?) platform.
Anyone try Linux recently? The majority of users can't tell LinuxMint apart from Windows XP if you put a nice skin on it. Microsoft is in trouble and in 3 years will be in big trouble if they don't have a major shift of focus. But I think most of the higher ups in Microsoft realize their dire situation--where a Chrome OS focussed on a browser is reasonable.
In terms of thinking PC or just access device to Internet/Cloud, end game is within site. Microsoft needs a strategy.
Already a year ago I was think about the future shift towards cloud, but even though the benefits are many, I'm more inclined to believe this to be a combo of not so remote cloud & cloud computing, but also the opposite in the form of volunteer & compulsory grid computing, as all this is already happening. It's a Wild West, but not forever. Some will fight against this, some will embrace this, & some will enforce this.
I actually like this idea, imagine a world where i can access all my data anywhere anytime with always on network device, imagine that i never have to worry about storage space. device capable of doing everything that a modern killer PC does accessing everything on the fly. Play games as and when you want and put something for download and its automatically downloaded and stored to your cloud storage space even if your device is not in action......... Something like Logmein does everything runs on my home PC but i can access it from anywhere and do what ever i want.
Ray Ozzie is looking from only one perspective, the perspective of someone that lives their life constantly on the move. For people that are always on the go, if its rushing from one office to the next, or commuting from one location to the other, its easy to envision a life where everything is run from a hand held device. But for the rest of us, when we get home from work the tablet gets very little use and if you ask anyone if they would rather watch a movie or play a game in the evening on a 7” tablet or a pc and 24” monitor, the pc & 24” monitor would win every time. Its more comfortable and easier on the eyes than looking at a small screen. I am a 3D artist, and my current pc has 24 logical cores for production rendering, and I think it is a very distant future before a handheld device has this much raw processing power, and even if this was possible one day without the battery dying after 5 minutes, if you gave me the choice between designing on a 7” tablet or my pc and 27“ monitor, again the pc & monitor would be the clear winner every time, and I think most professions would agree with this. Tablets just don’t have the comfort factor that a pc has, and unless a tablet manufacturer comes up with a 27” tablet with 24 cores, and a battery-pack in a back-pack, then I think my pc is safe for many years to come.
There are many of us who will still want to have a PC , or some iteration of it as long as we live. I see cloud-computing as the future for many business and "zombied" users that use the PC as mostly an Entertainment device ie TV, Music , Movies.
What about the people that enjoy building PC's? The people that want to have the backup of a file right there with them. Hobbyists, modders and the like will always want PC.
If our files are stored in our home PCs which have all needed software and hardware to process it even without the WWW then the power is ours. Would we let them move our data away from our homes they will have the power. They'll learn absolutely everything about our lives and will be able to track aspects of our life that they are still unable to do nowadays. While allies of the government they'll control us in every aspect. That's a major move against our rights and despite the advantages of it we must not take it ingenuously.
Cloud computing is no doubt a future that will be slowly forced upon us. It is all about control which leads finally to profitability (legal or illegal). It will be either accelerated by big private companies or by state organizations. If I like this or not it is another story.
1. I will never be 100% sure if my personal data is private
2. I am almost certain that will not be cheaper than today's technology
3. The system creates high dependency and may turn against me if used improperly
PC building & overclocking hobbies come and go. But putting my life on a plate for people a do not know and do not control is unbearable. Also paying increasing fees for every little "cloud" action is not a bright perspective, especially when I will be left with no alternatives. But than again it will be too late to go back.