Nobody in their right mind is going to bring their fabless designs to Intel, a competitor. Coupled with endless propaganda from Intel, they have never produced even a 10nm chip.
Further, and I am most assuredly not being rude, but the recent election in Taiwan was a solid victory for the Mainland. To understand Taiwan, what they would like is to reduce the anxiety between the Mainland and Taiwan. You strike me as an American Hawk and you have never been to Taiwan or China. The John and Joan Wayne approach is not palatable to the Chinese culture.
Recent elections the present President won more than 1/3 of the vote but not even a simple majority. The other two candidates were more friendly to the Mainland. The new President does not control the legislature. The strength is moving away from the DDP and it is younger voters propelling the changes. The Mainland is gaining power. The Mainland is the economic driver of the Taiwan economy.
Since Trump and now Biden, the chief complaint about Taiwan has been the silly notion that the US is DEPENDENT on TSMC for chips. One US General said the US would bomb TSMC rather than let China take it. Can you imagine how that remark resonated with the residents of Taiwan?
Taiwan has seen this erosion in the past with the US. Giving Taiwan weapons only invites China hostility. But what else does the US provide. Very little and with Biden's Chip Act which is a laughable government boondoggle, the US Government is hatching a plan with Intel to build Fab plants in UNION Labour controlled Ohio. The idea is to use Automative Labour to build chips. The cost estimates so far indicate that would result in a 50% increase in chip prices. That's assuming that Intel can actually build narrow gated chips. So far they have not show any aptitude fo that. Further, chip fab is manpower intensive. I do not even think the US labour force can do this kind of work. History is on my side in that regard.
This crazy Nancy Kerrigan Style kneecapping foreign policy of the United States is not going to prevail against China. In fact it has already failed.
As I have pointed out many times the narrow gated semis are a mere 5% of the market. 14 nm or under. China can make 7nm now and likely 5nm this year. However China has been focused on the 95% of the market and is now 60 to 70% self-sufficient. All this as a result of the American stupid idea that division of labour is a national security risk. Semiconductors evolved as a global division of labour enterprise. But the Murican first crowd thought that was too Global for them. So the Chips Act was a gambit to try to delay China so the US could catch up.
Even the CEO of ASML admits that China will have its own Litho narrow gated devices in a few years and will then be a hefty competitor to ASML.
The entire semiconductor business in the US is 2.3% of the US GDP. And shrinking 3% a year. By comparison the US Chemical industry is 25% of the US GDP and is expected to shrink 60% in the next five years. But where is Biden placing his chips? On fab. Makes no sense at all. BTW the Global Chemical Industry is moving to China. At present China has roughly a 60% market share and growing rapidly.
The business model for chips is wretched. A developer puts all their money in one chip that may or may not sell. When the US Gov blocks sales, they effectively destroy the semiconductor company that made the chip. Chips have a shelf life of bananas in a broken refrigerator car in Needles California. China doesn't want the NVIDIA disabled chips. NIVIDIA loses billions. There is not one semiconductor company that supports Biden's blockage of Chip sales to China, other than Intel that missed the entire handheld revolution and suddenly is eying FAB. And mark my words, they failed previously and this push will fail too.
I could tell you for example that China leads the US in 34 of 40 leading edge core technologies. And in the remaining 6, is just a hairs-breath behind. In China education is paramount. They are turning out more PhD by far than the US and Britain and Europe combined. In the US, 65% of all college enrolls are women, 35% men. That is a total reversal from the 1970s. Women are not filling the gap in the sciences. Nobody is thinking much about this in the Government or the long term consequences.
In terms of paper's published in AI, Biochemistry, China stands toe to toe with the US in virtually all scientific arenas and is leading in most. Ion impellers are used in chip fab and China has ion engines on its space station and makes ion impellers. The US doesn't have this or dozens of other technologies. But we always have to listen to the John Wayners claim that "Chiner Stole that technology from Murica." China has real 5g and now 6g, the US has neither. In fact, Intel failed in 5g spectacularly.
As my final remark: The individuals that kneecapped Nancy Kerrigan, did not become Olympic champions. To become an Olympic champion, one must compete. The US seems to have abandoned that idea in favour of kneecapping... This kneecapping has given China all the incentive it needs to become self-sufficient. You should have been selling them chips instead of turning them into a giant competitor.
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