Nvidia's Kepler to Arrive in 2012

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Moore's law is already slowing down, it's only going to get harder to design these ridiculously big and hot chips that Nvidia loves so much.
 

verbalizer

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good-luck, I'm waiting for you and you better come correct.
I'm hating all these AMD/Radeon fanbois talking all this nonsense about the HD 7xxx series.
(nVidia: the way it's meant to be played...)
 

dragonsqrrl

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"According to information released by Nvidia so far, Kepler cards will triple the dual-precision floating point performance of Fermi and hit up to 6 dp GFlops, while its successor Maxwell (scheduled for a 2013 release) is expected to with almost 16 dp GFlops. These are big promises and Nvidia wouldn't want to miss them."

...sigh,

You left out a small yet crucial piece of information that completely changes the meaning of this last paragraph. Per W. Nvidia says Kepler will triple the double precision performance per Watt over Fermi, they've never said anything about a flat out tripling in dp performance.
 

Grebuloner

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How about some proofreading and checking your facts...6 (or even 16) dp gflops is way below most GPUs and many CPUs. Do you mean GFLOPs/watt as the chart that's made the rounds says? That's a little more impressive.

/Thinking ahead to Maxwell or post-SI as next upgrade cycle.
 

4745454b

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This wasn't up when I made a post about this subject this morning. I'll copy what I wrote in this thread. Props to dragonsqrrl who caught what I did and Charlie missed.

http://semiaccurate.com/2011/07/05/nvidias-kepler-comes-in-to-focus/

I know you guys hate him, but he was correct with Fermi. Anand is also running an article saying the same.

http://www.anandtech.com/show/4572/kepler-gpus-shipping-this-year-nvidia-says-yes

Back to the article on Fudzilla, the second paragraph contains three bullet points, that the chip has taped out, there is a lot of leakage yet to be dealt with, and the 40nm to 28nm transition is tough.
Remember that for each respin of silicon, you'll need to tack on another 6 weeks or so. If tape out happened in June, the first respin won't be done until mid July at the earliest, probably more like August sometime. IF that one is the one they want to run with, production is 3mo, so they could have something ready by Nov. Nvidia has already said it's not happening, so the leakage much be bad.

I'd like to point out there seems to be an issue with the S/A article. He keeps going on about 2.5x the number of transistors, but I think he missed something. S/A quote.

First is that Kepler has about 2.5x the DP floating point performance of Fermi, at least according to Nvidia projections.
That doesn't quite match what Anand reported.

For Kepler NVIDIA is expecting "about 3x improvement in [double precision] performance per watt"
I added the bold part as I think this is what Nvidia meant. I think Charlie missed that. Other then that error, I don't think you'll be seeing Kepler for sale until H1 2012. Right now it depends on how many respins they need to fix their leakage problem.
 

ojas

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Finally!
i hope the cards are good, might upgrade my aging 9600GT finally...i just hope a smaller architecture means less heat, and consume less power...

Hope they're cheaper than fermi at launch ;)
 

legacy7955

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I for one am happy to see that a hardware company is actually SLOWING down the release of a product, because so many times in recent history product gets rushed out the door and is not completely tested and or checked as thoroughly as it should have been.

I'd rather wait a bit longer and get good durability, usability, and reliability than get a product that was rushed to market plagued with problems.
 

dragonsqrrl

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[citation][nom]4745454b[/nom]This wasn't up when I made a post about this subject this morning. I'll copy what I wrote in this thread. Props to dragonsqrrl who caught what I did and Charlie... I added the bold part as I think this is what Nvidia meant. I think Charlie missed that. Other then that error, I don't think you'll be seeing Kepler for sale until H1 2012. Right now it depends on how many respins they need to fix their leakage problem.[/citation]
I'd expect nothing less out of Demerjian...
 

4745454b

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Finally!
i hope the cards are good, might upgrade my aging 9600GT finally...i just hope a smaller architecture means less heat, and consume less power...
What are you smoking? Who said anything about a smaller arch? I'm sure Nvidia is piling more shaders into their chip, so even with the die shrink I bet it will be larger then Fermi.

I'd expect nothing less out of Demerjian...
Sometimes your hatred of a company means you miss things. Good thing I don't hate Nvidia, just dislike them:p

a good article on the issues that tsmc is having...

http://news.softpedia.com/news/AMD [...] 2552.shtml
Interesting, though I'm not sure it explains the issues TSMC is having. I wonder after reading that however if this means AMD will have clock speed with their cards. Low power usually equals lower clocks as well. I wonder how this will impact AMD.
 

hannibal

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Quote :
a good article on the issues that tsmc is having...

http://news.softpedia.com/news/AMD [...] 2552.shtml


Interesting, though I'm not sure it explains the issues TSMC is having. I wonder after reading that however if this means AMD will have clock speed with their cards. Low power usually equals lower clocks as well. I wonder how this will impact AMD.
It depend on how long time it will take Nvidia to get Kepler right with more advanced technology. If they are lucky. Nvidia has much better GPU this time. If they are unlucky, the AMD is ready for their 8xxxx series when TMSC finally manage to make desent chips to Nvidia...
 

4745454b

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I was thinking about this over my last hour of work. It might not be bad for AMD. The article said something about AMD using this low power process for its 7670 and 7650 chips? These would be the upgraded 6670? AMD could do this to be "first", while waiting for the HKMG 28nm process to get finished and then release the rest of their chips on that. If anyone has any info on what the clock speeds could be on the low power process I'd love to see it.
 

BluntObjection

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So basically hold on to your current card till 2013. Doesn't make sense to buy a card during 2012, then have its big brother come out a year later. As slow as the gaming industry is I doubt I could justify replacing my current card for another 3 years even.
 

drumsrule786

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I think the reason things are seeming to slow down is it is getting harder and harder to push silicon any smaller. Pretty soon we are going to have to switch to different materials, there's a limit to what silicon can do, and it seems we are reaching that within a decade or so
 

danwat1234

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[citation][nom]ch1pluvr[/nom]Moore's law is already slowing down, it's only going to get harder to design these ridiculously big and hot chips that Nvidia loves so much.[/citation]
They don't use that much power when idle. I like new video chips, I can use them to encode video faster and to run folding@home/seti@home for science. Plus it makes all the cooler running chipsets cheaper.
 
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danwat: Been drinking? I fail to see how that applies to the engineering difficulties associated with the next Nvidia chip being the size of a dinner plate.

Besides, anything you've described could be done with a much more reasonable GPU like a Radeon 6850 or below....
 

zxcvbnm44

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nVidia should have used Gallium-Arsenide compound semiconductors for 6xx series.

/thread

owait, GaAs contains extraordinarily high levels of impurities in relation to silicon and thus cannot be manufactured past a 500 nm node, not to mention gallium is rarer than gold and arsenic is very toxic and a carcinogen.

nvm

nVidia, you do good job, keep going with your Kepler stuff.

(P.S. GaAs is just plain BA. The Cray 3 ran off of it, and it can support frequencies up to 250 GHz)
 

AMD_pitbull

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[citation][nom]zxcvbnm44[/nom]nVidia should have used Gallium-Arsenide compound semiconductors for 6xx series./threadowait, GaAs contains extraordinarily high levels of impurities in relation to silicon and thus cannot be manufactured past a 500 nm node, not to mention gallium is rarer than gold and arsenic is very toxic and a carcinogen.nvmnVidia, you do good job, keep going with your Kepler stuff.(P.S. GaAs is just plain BA. The Cray 3 ran off of it, and it can support frequencies up to 250 GHz)[/citation]
LOL. Just needed to throw that in there.

As for this delay, I'm not really surprised. Nvidia is starting to try to change the game up a bit and will encounter problems along the way, die size changes are expected at this level. I personally prefer AMD, but, I hate seeing any company stagger. The better production and progress from each company (AMD, Intel, Nvidia), the better the prices for us. Competition is what drives the market. I'd just love to see programmers finally utilizing some of the hardware we already have, rather than see more upgrades.
 

wcooper007

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hey maybe someone should point out this whole diamond transistor technology that you were talking about on here a few days ago to Nvidia.
 
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