If China has to work very hard to overcome the current sanctions, put in place as a punishment for their current behavior, then they may have been effective as sanctions, a punishment.
If China doesn't change its behavior, and then proceeds to work around sanctions to the point where the sanctions are meaningless, and this ultimately leads to the sanctions hurting the US instead, that's backfiring. It's the law of unintended consequences. You want one thing to happen and instead something undesirable happens instead. You point a gun and pull the trigger, and instead of a bullet shooting at your intended target, it blows up in your face.
The U.S. (and others) want China to behave "better," and are trying to force the issue via sanctions. Lack of change inherently means the sanctions aren't working — China doesn't have to get worse for the sanctions to have failed, it just needs to continue on its current path. Right now, it's doubling down and resisting change by trying to do things on its own.
And if the sanctions don't work and China eventually reaches the point where it threaten the US and its allies economically, politically, socially, militarily, whatever, that's backfiring. That's what I'm saying, and in essence you've agreed.
China continues to flout "international standards," and with 1.4 billion people, it could reach the point where it eventually just gets to define what those standards should be. "China wins." How would that not be backfiring? The US is trying to send China to "timeout," and it looks like China will get angrier and more stubborn and resistant to US influence. Oops.
I don't even think the US
really cares about stopping China, though. What it really wants is short term concessions, and as with the sanctions, the long term impact is harder to nail down and becomes Somebody Else's Problem. We're just trying to erect an SEP field around China for now so we can all go on our merry way. (That's a Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy reference, if you didn't get it.)
