Given all of the above, though, we’d be surprised to see the second generation of HMD hardware any time soon.
I guarantee there'll be a next gen within 1 year. It'll be an incremental improvement, with a similar resolution. Perhaps it'll support 120 Hz, maybe it'll be a bit lighter, cheaper, have integrated cameras for inside-out tracking, wireless, etc. But this field is evolving so fast, I'm sure they already started working on the next gen before Rift even started shipping.
scolaner :
I think most of the bigger VR hardware companies are pursing both avenues at present, and the answer to the question is probably "a little of both."
It's going to be "both", for the foreseeable future. PC graphics lead smartphones by 5-10 years, due to power & thermal constraints. There's no amount of "clever" that can make up for that, because any clever thing you can do on a smartphone, you can do on the PC & unlock the next level of realism.
The PC just needs wireless HMDs. Once it has that, mobile will have no advantages, other than cost. But due to cost, mobile will always be the platform for the masses. I see it as sort of like console vs. PC gaming. Consoles have the volume, but PC is where the cutting edge lies.