PC Shipments Expected to Decline For First Time in 11 Years

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SpadeM

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Since performance on the hardware side is "good enough" for the last couple of years, those that own a 6 core sistem or a i7 920 have no reason to upgrade to new parts. This time around i believe we need the software to catch up and squeez every bit of performance from the hardware at hand. I've seen Intel and AMD introduce new instruction sets but haven't seen the software to benefit from it yet. Sure there are a few out there but mainly expensive ones.
 

jacobdrj

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SSDs: Making your current computer hardware good enough since 2010...

Once you hit Quad Core plus SSD, have enough archival storage space and a GPU that can play Google Earth well, you are pretty much set...
 

guru_urug

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I dont care what these analysts claim. There are some things that suit a PC the best. I mean its cool to have big displays with high resolutions and quad core chips on a mobile or a tablet. But you can't replace the comfort of using a PC and the ease of repair and upgradabilty it brings with it. Also every PC is unique, its allows you to put what you want in it! or atleast choose from a plethora of configurations. I can choose the way it looks, the way it lights up, I can mix and match components to get the best of all worlds to get the most bang for buck. I know I will be using a PC for a long long time.
 

jacobdrj

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[citation][nom]guru_urug[/nom]I dont care what these analysts claim. There are some things that suit a PC the best. I mean its cool to have big displays with high resolutions and quad core chips on a mobile or a tablet. But you can't replace the comfort of using a PC and the ease of repair and upgradabilty it brings with it. Also every PC is unique, its allows you to put what you want in it! or atleast choose from a plethora of configurations. I can choose the way it looks, the way it lights up, I can mix and match components to get the best of all worlds to get the most bang for buck. I know I will be using a PC for a long long time.[/citation]

PCs, at this point in the CONSUMER MARKET, is a niche product.

Workstations are something else. Still, a niche product for people who need desktop power. Most people in the business world are happy with laptop offerings...
 

shafe88

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PC Shipments Expected to Decline For First Time in 11 Years
Just wait, just wait, right before the launch of Win8 PC's shipments will skyrocket with people heading to the stores snatching up Win7 PC's before Win8 PC's ship.
 

XZaapryca

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This is what happens when developers write for consoles that use seven year old HW and just port that crap to PC. Why would I need a new PC if my old one runs "new" games just fine? The chickens are coming home to roost.
 

InvalidError

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With the number of non-PC computing platforms available to consumers, the PC is slipping into a secondary or tertiary role for the non-PC-gamer/productivity crowd.

For people who only use their PCs for browsing, banking, Netflix, etc., the ~$75 stick-size ARM/Android platforms that plug directly into the display's HDMI port often get the job done. Same goes with smart-TVs, modern game consoles, smartphones, tablets, etc.

The only thing missing for more low-cost Android heavy-lifting in diminutive form factors is ARM64 to support 4+GB RAM and full-size applications.
 

COLGeek

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Given the incredible processing power available for the relative low cost we have experienced during this time frame, it is no wonder that users are able to keep systems longer (in terms of viability and playability). If systems last longer, users buy fewer.

Same logic applies to cars as well. Think about it.
 

votriminh

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PC shipments are only declining due to consumers learning how to put do-it-yourself pc parts together by themselves. With the internet and youtube, and with especially how easy it is to assemble, everyone is doing it on their own instead of ordering from best buy or any online retailer. that's my speculation.
 

molo9000

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Hardware has simply outgrown software.
Even a 5 year old mobile dual core is still enough to do anything a normal user would want. A new computer is just a waste of money for most people.

Only 2 ways forward:
a) new form factors
b) new software. Like in the early 1980s, when excess processing power was used to make graphical user interfaces.
 

shafe88

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[citation][nom]Dupontrocks11[/nom]The fate of the computer industry relies on Windows 8? Uh oh....[/citation]
I don't think so, people will either skip Win8 altogether, or just upgrade their current computer to Win8. With Win8 being a Little more resource friendly than Win7, people are more inclined to just upgrade their current system rather then spending money on a whole new system when upgrading is a lot cheaper.
 

bigdragon

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Oh no! The sky is falling! They're only going to sell 349 million PCs this year instead of 352 million! Only 349 million! Oh the humanity! Clearly this is the post-PC era.

Only on Wall Street is anything less than record positive numbers considered failure.
 
G

Guest

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In some articles they define tablets as part of "PC" (usually Apple articels), then in other articles "PC" acquires a strict and traditional interpretation. CAN WE PLEASE STICK TO ONE DEFINITION OF "PC"?
IMO tablet != PC
 

g00fysmiley

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well i build them myself, but really my semi old 955 black w/ 450's in sli is all i need. it plays every gaem i throw at it in good resolutions with decent frame rates in 1080p ... so why upgrade, i liekly will have to once the new consoles hit and games start utilizing the new hardware btu we have been in kind of a software cap for a few years
 

fazers_on_stun

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Well this has already affected AMD: Advanced Micro Devices Warns On Weak Demand: What's Next?

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) announced preliminary financial results on 10/11, noting that it would see a 10% sequential drop in revenues against the guided 1% drop, +/- 3%. Further, the company announced that its gross margins would be around 31%, rather than the previously guided 44%, due to both a $100M inventory write down, as well as lower than expected selling prices.

With the weakness in the PC space suggested by Intel's (INTC) pre-announcement, coupled with HP (HPQ) and Dell's (DELL) fairly weak results in their most recent quarters, it was natural to expect that AMD would also suffer some weakness. The problem here is that AMD's guidance for the current quarter was already particularly weak (whereas Intel's was quite bullish and revised down to bearish), so a warning on top of an already weak guidance is particularly painful.

A Net Loss Expected In The Quarter

With this updated guidance, it is now certain that the company will experience a net loss. With gross margins of 31%, revenues 10% down from the previous quarter to roughly $1.26B, and operating expenses down 7% from the prior quarter's $557M, the operating loss will likely be about $128M, or -$0.18/share. Assuming flat interest expense compared to the prior quarter of $43M, the net loss should be even wider than the straight operating loss.

Q4 Guide - Unlikely To Be Good

With the company writing down $100M of inventory, it is unlikely that the Q4 guide will be particularly strong. On the previous call, the company had assured investors that the majority of the new inventory that had been built up was next generation "Trinity" products and not, as feared, the previous generation "Llano" products. However, the inventory that had already been built -- especially on the desktop chip side -- remained.

AMD attempted to hold off the coming of the next generation "Trinity" parts on the desktop in order to clear inventories, but it seems that the company was unable to do so. A part of this is likely due to the fact that AMD had created something of an "Osborne Effect" by talking up its upcoming products while its new products had just hit the shelves. This likely had a material effect on the demand for its current products, as AMD created the perception that better stuff was perpetually "just around the corner." Another problem, of course, is that Intel is seemingly more aggressively competing in the low end that AMD seems to dominate.
So while some may dismiss a measly 1.2% drop in global PC sales, note that AMD is having to lay off another 5% of its workforce due to weak demand and lower average selling prices on their high-end server parts (where most of their profits are made, presumably). And if the weak economy persists, the weaker companies will die off eventually..
 

ojas

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1) I think i'm reading this same news for the 5th time in the last year.

2) It's IHS, the same firm that thinks ipads are PCs.

3) It's Wolfgang, the same guy who seems to always post such articles.

4) These articles never account for component sales.

5) It's still a FORECAST not an actual number. Still 2 and a half months to go till 2013.
 
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