Media is lagging WAY behind the burners. I am sure future burners will burn 16 layers, etc. But there is no media to burn. B-R has been out for years already and it's hard to find a 50GB anyplace ; a box of 25 - 25GB disks are @299 at Newegg !!.
@ anon
I don't think BD players will ever sell well. People already have a large collection of DVDs and don't want to replace the big collection with expensive BDs (if the old movies even exist on BD). Also, normal DVD players keep getting better as well. They now have upscale to HDMI and USB ports to play off external HDDs to view MP3,Divx, and H.264 files.
By the time BD players are FINALLY cheap enough and mature, like you said, people will be carrying 64+ gig flash drives in their pocket. Stores will love to sell movies by having customers download content to the flash drives & PMPs, then the stores don't need to keep an inventory of disks (then back up to the 4TB media player if the DRM is good enough).
Blu-Rays will end up like the Laser-Disk with only a short life. Some geeks will still use Blu-Rays to back up home HDDs.
Anything is possible, but I don't see Blu-Ray going anyplace until media, players, and movies start getting a whole lot cheaper VERY soon.
2 cents..