What do we think? Could be market breaking or a major disappointment.
It depends entirely on price, at this point. On that front, the name is what has me worried.
Let's take a step back and recall what happened with the RTX 4060. It's powered by the AD107 GPU, which seems clearly designed to go into a RTX 4050 product. However, due to inflation, cost/design targets, and the state of the GPU market, Nvidia figured it was too expensive to sell as a RTX 4050 Ti or whatever, so they just called it the RTX 4060. What would've been a decent step up for a x050-tier card became almost a lateral move, as a x060-tier card.
Looking at the specs gives me the same feeling about the RX 7800 XT. I think AMD originally planned to sell the RX 7900 GRE as the RX 7800 XT, but it would've been too expensive for the current market climate. So, what they did was to take a GPU intended to sell as the RX 7700 XT and instead sell it as the RX 7800 XT, in order to justify their launch price.
It does look like a good step up from the RX 6750 XT, which had a MSRP of $550. However, I expect only a marginal improvement from the RX 6800 XT. It certainly should be faster, or else it'd be dead in the water, but maybe just like 10% or 20%?
Another reason we should worry about this is by looking at the other monolithic example of a RDNA 3 GPU - the RX 7600. It's made on TSMC N6, has a fairly modest base clock, and has only 16 MB of L2 cache. If the RX 7800 XT doesn't clock much above the RX 6800 XT (remember it probably needs at least 20% just to compensate for fewer shaders), it's sure not going to be much faster. Worse yet, if it has only like 32 MB of L2 cache compared to 36 (or 48) MB in the RTX 4070 (Ti), then that deficit could really hamper its native 14.3% bandwidth advantage.
Assuming I'm right about their plans for the RX 7800 XT and RX 7700 XT, here's how their cache quantities would look, across their lineup:
Planned Model | Actual Model | Cache (MiB) |
---|
RX 7600 | RX 7600 | 16 |
RX 7700 XT | RX 7800 XT | 32 |
RX 7800 XT | RX 7900 GRE | 64 |
RX 7900 XT | RX 7900 XT | 80 |
RX 7900 XTX | RX 7900 XTX | 96 |
So, if I'm right that this GPU was designed be sold as the RX 7700 XT, then that strongly suggests a paltry 32 MB of cache.