Price vs Time

[Flinx]

Has anyone graphed typical graphics card prices from introduction till withdrawal from production?

Anybody have a reference?

Anybody have a rough idea?

Thanks in advance for any info and your trouble.

The loving are the daring!

 

[ufo_warviper]

I'll look into it Flinx. Could you first explain to me in more detail what you mean and what you have planned? Your description was a little vague for me, ore I'm just not feeling good from my infirmity.

My OS features preemptive multitasking, a fully interactive command line, & support for 640K of RAM!

 

[Flinx]

Hi UFO and thanks for your interest in this problem.

Let's take a hypothetical example. Card X1 was introduced at $200 last year. Today it is in the vicinity of $125. The card has droped 37.5 perecent in the first year. Put this and other cards on a graph.

Finally, at some point it will no longer be possible to sell this card at a profit. At which point it will be withdrawn from the market.

For my purposes I want to know how low the price on the card I'm looking can go or might go.

Some other questions that might be answered:
1)How long does a card last in the market.
2)What is the rate of drop over time.
3)What is the optimum time to buy the card (subjective and objective).
4)How does popularity act to lengthen the life of the card
5)How do competitive products affect the life of the card.

Anyway you get the idea.

For my purposes, I want a feel for where I should jump in (subjective optimum).
Like right now I see some 9800 nonpros selling for about $375Cdn but can I expect the card to be available in January and what can I expect the price to be? Shall I save my $$$ or jump in right now and buy that TI-4200 for $150.

The loving are the daring!<P ID="edit"><FONT SIZE=-1><EM>Edited by Flinx on 09/02/03 08:06 PM.</EM></FONT></P>

 

[ufo_warviper]

This is a Swweeeettt concept. Its gonna be fun like a science or statistics experiment! I think taking prices by the yearly level would probabl not be enough. We should probably take them quarterly. It might be interesting to take it at even a montly level, but it probably wouldn't be worth it as our graph would be entirely conglomerated and confusing to end-users. Not only will this be based up on statistics & science, but also Economics as well. What we will be figuring will be the THeory of Market value depreciation for the graphics cards market. By using statisctics, we will realize that not every product will depreciate at the same rate, but will be dependednt on certain facotrs. We can make a scattor-plot or a bellcurve to help getaround these types of problems because compling a "market depreciation constant" from just merely the average of the total sum of all graphics products would produce disasterious results. This is mainly due to the wide variety of types of products. It would be helpful if we evaluate this in several views. The first wasy to do this is to divide in categories. But even these will be relative and subject to inconsitenceies, but not as much as if you include all products in the same basket.

We could evaluate in terms of the following:
1. Products of an individual Company ATi
2. Products from an individual company Nvidia (or others)
3. High end cards (upon offiicial first release)
4. Mid-range cards (upon offiicial first release)
5. Low-end cards (upon offiicial first release)
6. Direct X support.
7. Memory amount
8. Memory type
9. Other suggestions you might have.

This is gonna be cool Flinx!

My OS features preemptive multitasking, a fully interactive command line, & support for 640K of RAM!

 

[coolsquirtle]

boring~~~~

lolz

go team UFO

Proud Owner the Block Heater
120% nVidia Fanboy
PROUD OWNER OF THE GEFORCE FX 5900ULTRA <-- I wish this was me
I'd get a nVidia GeForce FX 5900Ultra... if THEY WOULD CHANGE THAT #()#@ HSF

 

[Flinx]

Great way to get a marketing job at one of the graphics companies . Nice thesis too .

Well I don't have the time to do this. I was kind of disappointed in pricewatch which seems to gather similar info does not keep trend lines.

I guess if you get the info from pricewatch you could automate the data gathering portion on your computer.



The loving are the daring!