It’s anecdotal of course, but from what I’ve seen the people who are still buying a “box” that lives on/under their desk generally have something in mind for it that’s above and beyond Office and internet, and are buying a box because they are looking for more performance. They might not want “the best”, but most of them are running 60-class dGPUs or better.
By box, I didn't mean a case, I meant a widget, wethers that's a laptop, 2-n-1, tablet, AIO,, blade, etc.
Qualcomm is DEFINITELY not talking about the ATX crowd.
Even in the business space that represents maybe 5% of new purchases at best, replaced by thin-clients, NUCs, and laptops.
And don’t discount the importance of backwards compatibility! Cheaper consumers really don’t love having the software they bought a permanent license for turned into an ongoing subscription, and lots of people have something older they want to keep and “it runs Windows” would make them expect that they could. A bad translation layer launch could sour people towards further purchases.
I understand that, but that segment is dwindling, and with fewer and few install options that slice of the pie is smaller... even them trying to figure out how does that install disc from their Win 7/8 software get loaded on their Win 11 machine now without an optical drive? Sure knowledgeable people have lots of options, just get a cheap usb drive or make a virtual disk/ISO, but it that enough to question Qc's 50% for backwards compatibility? Doubtful.
In the corporate space it's slowly but surely becoming an as X approaches 0 because it's no longer an on-device consideration for 90+% of them, and licensing/subscription is usually the only model... especially for Windows. Even then Security beats compatibility every time, so as long as they get that right they'll be a factor.
The ones who don’t need backwards compatibility and don’t need performance have been moving towards lower-cost iPads and Chromebooks rather than Windows laptops. And a lot of the people with fairly performant boxes on their desk bought iPads and Chromebooks for when they’re away from them where they used to own a Windows laptop as well.
Again, I think some of y'all are missing the point.... gaming PC buyers still aren't the biggest Windows market, so the Chromebook, Mac, Tablet, Phone defections are all relative to pruning the tree at the leafy middle, but the thin top is gamers and workstations, the fat trunk remains the generic cheap efficient business widget (whatever the form factor).
And if the path to 60% of consumer PCs is rough, then they’re gonna have to absolutely dominate in Corporate and Education sales to bring up the average.
Education is extremely cost sensitive and there’s no X Pro/Elite devices that strike me as “Budget” yet, so a bit early to project a win there.
I think you're mixing their OEM % with their Windows Percent.... and you're got it backwards again. They could dominate the consumer PC market, and they's still have to grab almost half the Business market to reach 50% windows PCs because it's about a 3:2 split at best between the two (usually 2:1), with consumer shrinking quicker than commercial.
Education is also a fraction of either the other two, so it's really a rounding error difference to this discussion, and if anything price, efficiency would favour Qc for Education too.
Also adding the "Ai PC" driver for sales as a major growth factor especially for Windows Copilot+ PCs that are the new 'Cool thing' just strengthen the argument against traditional roles and mfrs.
Businesses could probably switch over people who aren’t using specialized software, but actively working while being away from power for an extended time is a pretty rare occurrence, and it’s safe to assume Intel and AMD are going to cut prices and release new offerings rather than completely roll over and give up on corporate sales. Plus corporate IT purchases tend towards conservative, proven solutions.
Most commercial PC buys now are laptops, and while many may be plugged in 24/7 at a cubical or at home, their ability to not be tied down is one of their prime selling points, not only for work on the road or from the couch at home, but for collaboration, staffing level changes, and hotswapping, etc. That they can also do XYZ tasks at lower power is another strong selling point, even if it's plugged-in 24/7 because their idle/sleep state is even lower, and energy costs DO still drive many conversations even if the old bunch of fluro lights above their cube are eating more energy than a dozen laptops.
I can speak from experience, corporate IT purchasing (and the flip side of sales) are more interested in value, then security, then all other considerations. If it runs Windows, and gets them secure remote access/control/management... then that option is considered, Warranties, QOS targets/metrics, and service agreements cover the rest.
'Proven solutions' as a focus moved from hardware to software starting about a decade ago. And, if you're large enough in the Enterprise space it's the vendor's problem, not yours, and usually with penalties for failure that make one bad choice a blip. Again servers and network hardware being the exception to the rule.
The number of people in purchasing or IT support nowadays that even know what MTBF means outside of the server environment is dwindling quickly.
Qualcomm are likely overly optimistic in their targets, but that's different from un-realistic. It's so far out that a lot of things can change, 5 years ago we were still 9 months away from COVID which dramatically changed work environments, remote work, VoIP, teleconferencing. Might Ai PC adoption be the next major shift? Only time will tell, but at least Qc has a seat at the table.
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