A 50:50 chance can also be described as a 50% probability, meaning it's equally likely it will work, or not work. Without actually trying, it's just a guesstimate.
It's always better to fit pairs of identical size DIMMs in a typical system, to get Dual Channel mode, which is faster than Single Channel mode, if you fit only one DIMM.
If you can't afford a new 32GB kit, buy another 16GB DIMM with the exactly the "same" part number as your existing DIMM. It should work at JEDEC default speed (slower) but you might have trouble involving XMP (faster) without manually adjusting CL (CAS) timings.