News Reality Check: Sorry, AMD Hasn't Tripled Its Market Share (Yet)

jimmysmitty

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Steams Survey is only useful in terms of gamers and enthusiasts. That is the only market that it can even remotely represent.

It takes time for market share to change and as well volume. While AMD finally has some very competitive products there is still more work to be done to take more market share. Of total sales they will need to sway the big OEMs more than anything as thats where the majority of common user sales are.
 
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ddcservices

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There has clearly been a surge in sales for AMD based products, no question about it. What I suspect when it comes to the Passmark results is that many people hear about new security vulnerabilities in Intel chips, so they run a benchmark to see how much performance they have lost due to the latest updates. There was the release of the 9900ks, which many were expecting to actually be better than the 9900k, so trying to tweak the new processor and failing to find it actually better than the 9900k would make people run benchmark after benchmark after benchmark to try to find a justification for buying the 9900ks.
 

ddcservices

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Steams Survey is only useful in terms of gamers and enthusiasts. That is the only market that it can even remotely represent.

It takes time for market share to change and as well volume. While AMD finally has some very competitive products there is still more work to be done to take more market share. Of total sales they will need to sway the big OEMs more than anything as thats where the majority of common user sales are.
The problem with the Steam Hardware Survey is that it is a survey, distributed randomly, and many people have never even had it pop up for them. Since AMD has only had 2.75 years worth of big growth from the release of the first Ryzen 7 processors in 2017, it stands to reason that if the new machines have never gotten a survey, the actual number of AMD users is being under-represented. Steam should have an auto-gather every month(with the option to opt-out) for all devices that connect to the service. Don't make it random if your machine gets a survey.
 

jimmysmitty

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The problem with the Steam Hardware Survey is that it is a survey, distributed randomly, and many people have never even had it pop up for them. Since AMD has only had 2.75 years worth of big growth from the release of the first Ryzen 7 processors in 2017, it stands to reason that if the new machines have never gotten a survey, the actual number of AMD users is being under-represented. Steam should have an auto-gather every month(with the option to opt-out) for all devices that connect to the service. Don't make it random if your machine gets a survey.
Except thats not what the Steam survey is saying. Its over representing due to an error.

And its pretty close. If you look though you can see a steady climb in the survey for AMD CPUs.

My only point is that it is not a way to look at CPU market share outside or gamers or enthusiasts since the mass majority of people rarely build a PC.
 
In the world of corporate finance 'market share' is defined very differently from what's used here. Since it's being so loosely used here you could also define it as 'number of CPU compute cores being sold'. I wonder what that would say for AMD's current 'market share'.

But using the article's references even as a 'popularity index' is just wrong, for the reasons given.
 

TCA_ChinChin

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Anybody expecting a tripling of market share needs to know that despite AMD having great gains so far, it still takes time for momentum to build up and stubborn larger companies to move to a new platform due to the perceived risk with migration. Also, doubling/tripling a small number is still a small-ish number.

The bright side for AMD isn't that they are able to double/triple market share in 2 years, its the fact that they will continue to grow at a good rate for several more generations due to how they have developed their architecture and Intel's own misfortunes.
 
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jimmysmitty

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Anybody expecting a tripling of market share needs to know that despite AMD having great gains so far, it still takes time for momentum to build up and stubborn larger companies to move to a new platform due to the perceived risk with migration. Also, doubling/tripling a small number is still a small-ish number.

The bright side for AMD isn't that they are able to double/triple market share in 2 years, its the fact that they will continue to grow at a good rate for several more generations due to how they have developed their architecture and Intel's own misfortunes.
AMD still needs a lot of work though to be able to really shine. Marketing is one of their biggest weaknesses. Outside of the enthusiast market AMD is relatively unknown but everyone knows Intel. Well not everyone but a much larger majority than do AMD.

I think if they can get that into a better spot they could easily keep the momentum going. So long as they keep a decently competitive product and don't have another Phenom or Bulldozer.
 

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AMD is dominating the DIY market. But the DIY market is small relative to laptops, prebuilts, and 2-1's. Give it a few years for more brands to start incorporating Ryzen into their low power and mobile devices, Ryzen is incredibly versatile especially on the 7nm node.
 

TJ Hooker

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The problem with the Steam Hardware Survey is that it is a survey, distributed randomly, and many people have never even had it pop up for them. Since AMD has only had 2.75 years worth of big growth from the release of the first Ryzen 7 processors in 2017, it stands to reason that if the new machines have never gotten a survey, the actual number of AMD users is being under-represented. Steam should have an auto-gather every month(with the option to opt-out) for all devices that connect to the service. Don't make it random if your machine gets a survey.
What's wrong with taking a random sampling of the entire population? That's standard survey methodology. The fact that Ryzen is new-ish shouldn't make a difference, unless they're being really dumb and posting the current results as being cumulative from all past surveys*. The real issue is that the Steam survey has inherent sampling bias by being limited to people who have Steam installed. Plus I think there have been cases where Steam catches on with a whole new demographic and all of a sudden the results change, but in reality there's been no real change in market share just a change in who's all using Steam.
* E.g. if one year they have 100% Intel, and the next year they get 50% Intel/AMD, and they were to then combine them and display the results as being 75% Intel/25% AMD, that would be dumb. But I don't have any reason to think they're doing that.
 
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To be honest with you, I'm not sure benchmarks are the end all be all of the represented market. There's overall market share, and there is CURRENT market share. These benchmarks represent overall market share which might include systems that are over 10 years old.

AMD's current market share we know is surging in the home brew market in both Europe and USA as evidenced by top sellers list. While the home brew market is relatively small, but it is a very important metric. Those who build their own systems are a little bit more tech savvy. This will eventually reflect in the professional market where these tech-savvy people typically work.

Will AMD achieve 30% current market share overall? Doubtful. TSMC doesn't have the capacity for that to happen any time soon, and Intel is willing to dump their products to keep AMD at bay. But I think AMD is in a very healthy position. They are shedding their debt quickly and sales are a very competitive alternative. If they keep innovating, then I think they will more than thrive.
 

jimmysmitty

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To be honest with you, I'm not sure benchmarks are the end all be all of the represented market. There's overall market share, and there is CURRENT market share. These benchmarks represent overall market share which might include systems that are over 10 years old.

AMD's current market share we know is surging in the home brew market in both Europe and USA as evidenced by top sellers list. While the home brew market is relatively small, but it is a very important metric. Those who build their own systems are a little bit more tech savvy. This will eventually reflect in the professional market where these tech-savvy people typically work.

Will AMD achieve 30% current market share overall? Doubtful. TSMC doesn't have the capacity for that to happen any time soon, and Intel is willing to dump their products to keep AMD at bay. But I think AMD is in a very healthy position. They are shedding their debt quickly and sales are a very competitive alternative. If they keep innovating, then I think they will more than thrive.
Intel is more worried about the server and HPC market than consumer market though. It shows with their strategy. 10nm in ULP laptops, mostly to push Ultra Books and the new Project Athena, and next year in servers and HPC markets with CPUs and discrete GPUs, also FPGA devices.

AMD is in a great position to be a well run company. I think if they keep the ship steady and don't try another Bulldozer we will see a much better competitive front with AMD having much more market share than they have in the past decade or so.
 
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jimmysmitty

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Anybody that remotely follows stocks will have heard of AMD.
Go to a normal consumer and ask them if they know who AMD is and what products the make.

When was the last AMD commercial you saw on national television? I actually just saw an advertisement for an OEM computer and it had the Intel logo and jingle.

We are not talking about people dealing with stocks, who may know them but may only know their stock. We are talking the mass majority. The people who wouldn't know who Asus is even though they have probably utilized a product with their parts in it, Asus has been doing OEM motherboards for pretty much ever. Yet Asus also makes better laptops and consumer desktops than most other OEMs. When people ask my opinion or suggestion of what to buy I tell them Asus and they ask who that is and how to spell it.

AMD is known but you cannot say they are as well known to the majority as Intel is.
 

redgarl

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Sales =/= user base

Meaning Steam survey results are irrelevant. AMD sales, ARE CLEARLY above Intel sales BY A GOOD MARGIN. The stock value is there to prove it.
 

redgarl

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Go to a normal consumer and ask them if they know who AMD is and what products the make.

When was the last AMD commercial you saw on national television? I actually just saw an advertisement for an OEM computer and it had the Intel logo and jingle.

We are not talking about people dealing with stocks, who may know them but may only know their stock. We are talking the mass majority. The people who wouldn't know who Asus is even though they have probably utilized a product with their parts in it, Asus has been doing OEM motherboards for pretty much ever. Yet Asus also makes better laptops and consumer desktops than most other OEMs. When people ask my opinion or suggestion of what to buy I tell them Asus and they ask who that is and how to spell it.

AMD is known but you cannot say they are as well known to the majority as Intel is.
Ahh, sorry, I didn't wasted my time reading after the first sentence of fanboyism of your post.

 

gdmaclew

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I think redgarl is right.
The name of the game for the non-DIY market is brand visibility which Intel has in spades.
Everybody knows the Intel "do-tink, do-tink" jingle and AMD would benefit from at least a little advertising.
That's their next hurdle. Make AMD (or maybe just Ryzen) a known commodity for the masses, something they can identify with. Couldn't hurt.
 

TCA_ChinChin

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Go to a normal consumer and ask them if they know who AMD is and what products the make.

When was the last AMD commercial you saw on national television? I actually just saw an advertisement for an OEM computer and it had the Intel logo and jingle.

We are not talking about people dealing with stocks, who may know them but may only know their stock. We are talking the mass majority. The people who wouldn't know who Asus is even though they have probably utilized a product with their parts in it, Asus has been doing OEM motherboards for pretty much ever. Yet Asus also makes better laptops and consumer desktops than most other OEMs. When people ask my opinion or suggestion of what to buy I tell them Asus and they ask who that is and how to spell it.

AMD is known but you cannot say they are as well known to the majority as Intel is.
True. AMD needs to step up their marketing. They've got everything right in the equation for more success so far except good marketing tbh.
 

jimmysmitty

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Ahh, sorry, I didn't wasted my time reading after the first sentence of fanboyism of your post.

Right I forget you live in an alternate reality. Because none of your posts have ever shown a shred of fanboyisim at all.

First off, the mass majority of consumers do not know much about computers. They are led by marketing and I can say that if I watch TV I have almost never seen a commercial with AMDs logo or a commercial of their own. Intel is everywhere though. They market way more.

But I forget. To you if I am not licking AMDs feet and proclaiming them a god among men I am a fanboy. Never call out where their weaknesses may lie as they are perfect.

Nope. They need to beef up marketing for the general consumers, bulk up their software team and make good deep partnerships with OEMs and channel partners to help spur sales. They currently have good hardware, well GPUs are a bit meh to me and I still wish they would get rid of PGA and go to LGA but thats a personal preference, they just need everything around it to improve and if you cannot admit that then there is no hope for you.
 

TJ Hooker

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Ahh, sorry, I didn't wasted my time reading after the first sentence of fanboyism of your post.

The participants in that survey were readers of tech websites. So it'd be like surveying Tomshardware forums. Probably not representative of the general population.
 

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