News Report: Coronavirus Hitting Graphics Card, Motherboard Demand in China

[Admin]

China's DIY PC market is reportedly expected to take a hit in Q1, due to the Coronavirus outbreak.

Report: Coronavirus Hitting Graphics Card, Motherboard Demand in China : Read more

 

[Darkbreeze]

I don't know, because I'm not there, but I honestly think that "those stuck at home" in China are seriously more interested in just staying alive then they are in worrying about upgrading anything. I mean, seriously? Do we really believe that people locked down at home under travel and quarantine restrictions are actually worried about whether or not they can order a new motherboard right that moment or not? Or at all? Seems unrealistic to me.

 

[Olle P]

... I honestly think that "those stuck at home" in China are seriously more interested in just staying alive then they are in worrying about upgrading anything. ...

Not "more" worried, but "also". It's a matter of priorities.
1. Don't catch the virus.
Solution: Avoid physical contact with others. Stay home!
Status: Check!
2. While alone (with family) at home, get food and supplies to avoid starvation.
Solution: Order online!
Status: Reduced delivery service and possibly also poor shopping experience due to old crappy hardware.
3. Keep sane while at home, in spite of having little contact with others.
Solution: Use computer to distract the mind and keep in touch with other people.
Status: Old computer prevents full pleasure.
4. Upgrade computer!

 

[cryoburner]

I don't know, because I'm not there, but I honestly think that "those stuck at home" in China are seriously more interested in just staying alive then they are in worrying about upgrading anything. I mean, seriously? Do we really believe that people locked down at home under travel and quarantine restrictions are actually worried about whether or not they can order a new motherboard right that moment or not? Or at all? Seems unrealistic to me.

While the disease is more dangerous than something like the flu, the fatality rate so far has only been around 3% among those who are known to have contracted it, with the majority of deaths being among the elderly and those with existing health conditions. And while the roughly 30,000 people who are known to have contracted it so far might sound like a lot, that only amounts to around 0.002% of China's total population, or about 1 in 50,000 people, with only 1 in 2.5 million having died from it. Those ratios will be higher in some localized regions and will undoubtedly grow higher for some time, but most of the demographic likely to purchase computer components are probably not excessively worried about it, even if their workplaces are in some cases shut down to help reduce potential transmission of the disease.

 

[Darkbreeze]

So far, from what I've seen and read from some pretty reputable sources, it currently looks pretty much like if you get exposed to this virus, you get it. Unlike seasonal influenza and a number of other well known but enormously deadly plagues, where there has been some amount of hit or miss when it comes to contraction.

So if we assume even half of China's 1.36 billion people become infected and 3% of them die, that's still somewhere around 20,400,000 deaths. You want to tell me that YOU are feeling ok with those numbers now if it's possible YOU might be among those numbers? I didn't think so. I doubt those people do either.

 

[TCA_ChinChin]

So far, from what I've seen and read from some pretty reputable sources, it currently looks pretty much like if you get exposed to this virus, you get it. Unlike seasonal influenza and a number of other well known but enormously deadly plagues, where there has been some amount of hit or miss when it comes to contraction.

So if we assume even half of China's 1.36 billion people become infected and 3% of them die, that's still somewhere around 20,400,000 deaths. You want to tell me that YOU are feeling ok with those numbers now if it's possible YOU might be among those numbers? I didn't think so. I doubt those people do either.

I agree with what you've been saying about most people in China, but you also have to know that there are many in China that don't have that kind of common sense relative to those in the US or maybe in some other Western countries. I don't want to sound racist or anything, but there will be people out there in China just like how there are anti-vaxxers in the US. Not saying there will be a lot of people who do that, but since China has a larger population that the US, it stands to reasonably think there will be a larger amount of people in China that would disregard or ignore the obvious statistics and information related to nCoronavirus 2019.

 

[cryoburner]

So far, from what I've seen and read from some pretty reputable sources, it currently looks pretty much like if you get exposed to this virus, you get it. Unlike seasonal influenza and a number of other well known but enormously deadly plagues, where there has been some amount of hit or miss when it comes to contraction.

So if we assume even half of China's 1.36 billion people become infected and 3% of them die, that's still somewhere around 20,400,000 deaths. You want to tell me that YOU are feeling ok with those numbers now if it's possible YOU might be among those numbers? I didn't think so. I doubt those people do either.

It's a bit early to randomly assume that half of people would get infected, and those kind of numbers seem rather unlikely. From what I've heard, transmission is rather similar to that of the flu virus, and isn't necessarily much more contagious. The flu does infect a lot of people though, afflicting millions each year and killing hundreds of thousands worldwide, so it's certainly possible that millions could similarly get infected by this, with the potential for more fatalities. However, with the outbreak getting a lot of media coverage, and governments taking steps to reduce transmission, it seems likely that people may actually end up better protected against this than the flu, simply because transmission of the flu tends to be taken less seriously.

The outbreak is a serious concern, and chances are high that it may result in at least tens of thousands of fatalities, but expecting tens of millions is probably jumping the gun a bit, as is assuming people are going to be huddled in their homes with no interest in using their computers or other forms of entertainment.

 

[bit_user]

I don't know, because I'm not there, but I honestly think that "those stuck at home" in China are seriously more interested in just staying alive then they are in worrying about upgrading anything.

So, being stuck at home for weeks on end wouldn't have you a bit bored?

Do we really believe that people locked down at home under travel and quarantine restrictions are actually worried about whether or not they can order a new motherboard right that moment or not?

Yes. If I'm using my home PC more, I'm even more likely to notice how slow it is, and want to upgrade it.

The only real factor countering that would be loss of income, if my job were something I couldn't do from home.

Remaining in a heightened state of anxiety, for prolonged periods of time, is unnatural and unhealthy. It's not as if there's a zombie apocalypse, outside, a hot war, or even ebola - just a bad virus that you'd rather avoid.

Sure, you need to do some planning around when the designated person in your household will go out and get food & supplies, but unless someone in your family is sick, I don't really see what else would consume someone's attention to such a degree that it would completely displace any and all thoughts of upgrades, for PC users.

 

[bit_user]

most of the demographic likely to purchase computer components are probably not excessively worried about it, even if their workplaces are in some cases shut down to help reduce potential transmission of the disease.

Your math is wrong, because it's not only those 30k who are infected that are subject to the controls mentioned. At first, it was everyone living in Wuhan & neigboring cities in Hubei. However, more recently, they've been extending it to even more cities, including even Shanghai.

Getting back to the original story, I'm sure the depressed demand for PC upgrades is also somewhat due to the extended holiday break. Hourly employees won't be getting paid for that extra time off.

Others could generally be concerned about the economic impact and just holding off on discretionary spending. China's economy has already been slowing, over the past year or so.

 

[bit_user]

with the outbreak getting a lot of media coverage, and governments taking steps to reduce transmission,

That only works in countries that have the infrastructure and the law and order to effectively quarantine people, do all the contact tracing, etc.

Once it gets into developing or war-torn countries, it will explode like wildfire. And the fatality rate is worse than recent flu viruses. Fortunately, it's not as high as SARS (which is a closely-related corona virus), nor is it nearly as contagious as measles.

 

[Darkbreeze]

It's a bit early to randomly assume that half of people would get infected, and those kind of numbers seem rather unlikely. From what I've heard, transmission is rather similar to that of the flu virus, and isn't necessarily much more contagious.

I don't know where you're getting your information from, and I'm no scientist or doctor, but from what I'm reading and hearing, that is not just wrong, but seriously, lost in the middle of the rainforest type wrong.

Professors at the University of Hong Kong using similar methods published a study in the Lancet on Friday that estimated there were 75,815 infected in Wuhan as of Jan. 25, when official counts were still in the hundreds.

“We think only 1 in 20 people who are getting infected are actually being diagnosed” in Wuhan, said Jonathan M. Read, lead author of a study from Britain’s Lancaster University that also put Wuhan numbers in the tens of thousands as of Jan. 22. “It’s quite a bit more transmissible than seasonal flu.”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/expert...how-contagious-the-wuhan-virus-is-11580672317

Obviously, it is still early to tell a lot of things with any certainty, but with 28,018 people "officially" infected in just over a month and "officially" 583 of them dead which is about a 2.1% death rate (Compared to a 0.51% rate for seasonal influenza), and the numbers having quadrupled over the last SIX days, the LAST thing in the world I'd be worried about right now is whether or not I could get somebody to deliver a motherboard or graphics card to me or not especially when there is a lack of water, food, medicine, information and other critical services, not to mention a very real fear of whether or not I might die since a lot of other people actually, are.

Even people in other countries where there are no related deaths yet have these fears, so you can imagine what it's like being in a country where tens of thousands of people are infected and almost six hundred have already died from it. I think the overwhelming majority of people are by FAR not taking this as seriously as they ought to be. Especially considering that with a minor mutation or two, this could easily go from a low to high mortality rate given the right circumstances.

 

[bit_user]

I don't know where you're getting your information from, and I'm no scientist or doctor, but from what I'm reading and hearing, that is not just wrong, but seriously, lost in the middle of the rainforest type wrong.

That WSJ article is behind a pay-wall, for me. However, this (free) BBC podcast was produced only a day earlier, and fact-checking statistics is basically their entire thing.

More or Less: Behind the Stats - WS More or Less: Coronavirus - BBC Sounds

Fact checking claims about the spread of Coronavirus

www.bbc.co.uk

the LAST thing in the world I'd be worried about right now is whether or not I could get somebody to deliver a motherboard or graphics card to me or not especially when there is a lack of water, food, medicine, information and other critical services, not to mention a very real fear of whether or not I might die since a lot of other people actually, are.

To the extent that under-diagnosis is accurate, it really doesn't raise the concern any. That's because it just means the death rate is lower and that a lot of people are getting a mild form of the disease, which sounds like it's probably not even as bad as the flu.

Anyway, I'm not going to argue over your priorities and concern level. All I can say is that, once I've taken care of my food and supplies - and unless I happened to be unlucky enough to be sick or taking care of a sick person - I probably would be thinking about finally doing that desktop upgrade I've been contemplating for a few years.

I think the overwhelming majority of people are by FAR not taking this as seriously as they ought to be.

And what good is that? All I can do is make sure I have a reasonable amount of supplies on hand. I can't help create a vaccine, or anything like that. Fortunately, there are people who are.

Again, the BBC has some great coverage, in their weekly science program:

BBC World Service - Science in Action - Available now

Available episodes of Science in Action

www.bbc.co.uk

Especially considering that with a minor mutation or two, this could easily go from a low to high mortality rate given the right circumstances.

It could happen, but I've heard this virus has a lower mutation rate than many.

I've heard a vaccine could be ready as soon as early next year. So, I guess we just have to hope that process goes smoothly and that maybe China & others manage to tamp down the virus' spread, until then.

 

[Darkbreeze]

A vaccine? It's been 17 years since SARS first appeared and 7 years since MERS, and there has been no vaccine. Heck, it's been 112 years since the virus called Spanish flu killed 50 million people, and that has been around more than once, and we have no vaccine, innoculation, cure or shot to ward against that or many others. Viruses are tricky and the type of virus involved is particularly important. So far, I don't think we've ever had much luck with any of these or the pneumonia type viruses other than treating the symptoms. It would be nice if they'd come up with something but I think really all the talk about a vaccine is more to keep the public calm than it is about any real hope that they are going to have traction in this area anytime soon.

If they did, I suspect they would quickly have drugs that worked against ALL coronaviruses in rather short order. So far, I've seen no signs of any success at all against these viruses much as the billions of dollars trying to cure AIDS has mostly been fruitless. Yes, they've had some success against some strains, but it still runs rampant in specific communities and certain regions. And some of the successes they've had has been knocked backwards due to mutations as well.

 

[cryoburner]

Your math is wrong, because it's not only those 30k who are infected that are subject to the controls mentioned. At first, it was everyone living in Wuhan & neigboring cities in Hubei. However, more recently, they've been extending it to even more cities, including even Shanghai.

The math's right. The 30,000 figure was merely brought up to point out that compared to China's nearly 1.4 billion population, the number of those known to actually be infected is relatively small, and the number of fatalities much smaller still, meaning the vast majority of those whose workplaces are closed are probably not excessively worried about the outbreak. At least not so much to be constantly in fear of it at this time. So, pretty much what you were saying.

 

[Darkbreeze]

Even not factoring in the considerations of the outbreak itself, you can bet they are sure as heck worried about the mandatory unemployment and no end in sight.

 

[bit_user]

If you're so worried about & interested in virus outbreaks, you should really check out the Science in Action podcast I linked, above. The last 3 episodes each cover a variety of different aspects of the virus, outbreak, epidemiology, diagnostics, treatment, containment, how it's studied, etc.

A vaccine? It's been 17 years since SARS first appeared and 7 years since MERS, and there has been no vaccine.

In fact, the new virus is basically a variant of SARS. That's actually good, since it means we have the benefit of all the research that has gone into SARS, over the years.

Heck, it's been 112 years since the virus called Spanish flu killed 50 million people, and that has been around more than once, and we have no vaccine, innoculation, cure or shot to ward against that or many others.

Of course, there are flu vaccines but, as a practical matter, they inoculate only against the couple strains that are projected to be most prevalent, in that year.

So, in the time that flu vaccines that have been common, maybe that strain has never been on the radar as a likely candidate for resurgence. Or, maybe there's something about it that (like HIV) makes vaccine formulation difficult. I don't know, but it doesn't seem like a very useful point to make, in the abstract.

I think really all the talk about a vaccine is more to keep the public calm than it is about any real hope that they are going to have traction in this area anytime soon.

A lab already synthesized a vaccine for this virus, within hours of when China first published its genetic sequence,. They said they expect to be doing human trials this summer, and could possibly be ready for larger human trials, by the end of the year.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51299735

In the meantime, people are experimenting with a variety of anti-viral drugs that have already been safety-tested for use in humans. For more, check out the Feb 6 episode of the Science in Action podcast.

So far, I've seen no signs of any success at all against these viruses much as the billions of dollars trying to cure AIDS has mostly been fruitless. Yes, they've had some success against some strains, but it still runs rampant in specific communities and certain regions.

Like you said, the type of virus matters a lot. One helpful thing about corona viruses is that they're RNA viruses. Because of this, they need to bring their own unique enzymes for copying their genome. That gives you a molecular target for drugs that can disrupt their replication. Again check out the Feb 6 episode, for more.

some of the successes they've had has been knocked backwards due to mutations as well.

BTW, corona viruses lack a whole mechanism of mutation that flu viruses have. For details, check out that podcast. I think they explained this, in the Jan 23 episode.

 

[bit_user]

The math's right.

I was referring to the fact that you're grossly underestimating the number of people who are essentially being confined to their homes. I just heard an estimate that something like as much as 5% of China is currently on lock down, which is a heck of a lot more than those with the infection.

 

[bit_user]

Even not factoring in the considerations of the outbreak itself, you can bet they are sure as heck worried about the mandatory unemployment and no end in sight.

Agreed. I mentioned this at the end of post #9.

When people are worried about the economy (which was already in a slump), they tend to cut back on discretionary spending. That could be the bigger factor, so far.

 

[Darkbreeze]

If you're so worried about & interested in virus outbreaks, you should really check out the Science in Action podcast I linked, above. The last 3 episodes each cover a variety of different aspects of the virus, outbreak, epidemiology, diagnostics, treatment, containment, how it's studied, etc.


In fact, the new virus is basically a variant of SARS. That's actually good, since it means we have the benefit of all the research that has gone into SARS, over the years.

For what that's worth, which is, from what I can ascertain, very little.

So, in the time that flu vaccines that have been common, maybe that strain has never been on the radar as a likely candidate for resurgence.

Spanish flu is the H1N1 virus. So I'm sure you weren't serious when you said that, right? There have been, so far as we know, MANY resurgences of that strain and some mutations and variations of H1N1. To date it is one of the most deadly pandemics of all time. Certainly the most deadly flu virus of all time killing 40 percent of the worlds population in 1918.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-pandemic-h1n1.html

It has re-emerged as recently as 2009 when it killed what the CDC estimated to be betweeen 151,700 and 575,400 people.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/spotlights/pandemic-global-estimates.htm

Of FAR more concern to me, is the rapidly increasing number of deaths per DAY that we are seeing. The reports of low fatality rates are based on numbers from early assessments. Re-assessments from more recent numbers are likely to not be nearly as kind considering the number of deaths PER DAY has increased by more than ten times since January 23rd.

A total of 86 people in mainland China died from the Wuhan coronavirus on Friday, according to the country's National Health Commission (NHC). That was the highest single-day death toll since the Chinese authorities began issuing daily updates.
The number of deaths per day in mainland China has steadily risen over the past few weeks.
Here's the breakdown from the NHC:

• February 7: 86 deaths reported
• February 6: 73 deaths reported
• February 5: 73 deaths reported
• February 4: 65 deaths reported
• February 3: 64 deaths reported
• February 2: 57 deaths reported
• February 1: 45 deaths reported
• January 31: 46 deaths reported
• January 30: 43 deaths reported
• January 29: 38 deaths reported
• January 28: 26 deaths reported
• January 27: 26 deaths reported
• January 26: 24 deaths reported
• January 25 15 deaths reported
• January 24: 16 deaths reported
• January 23: 8 deaths reported

Chinese authorities said 17 people TOTAL had died from the virus before January 23.


When 5000 are dead, and there are rapidly growing numbers in countries other than China, I'm going to revisit some threads and ask people if they still feel the same way they do right now.

 

[bit_user]

For what that's worth, which is, from what I can ascertain, very little.

Disagreed. It sounds to me like quite a lot has been learned about SARS.

Spanish flu is the H1N1 virus. So I'm sure you weren't serious when you said that, right?

All I was trying to say is that some viruses have vaccines, including flu viruses, and others don't. You can't just pick a random virus and use it to make some point about vaccines, without establishing the relevance to this one (2019-nCoV).

Again, if you're so interested in this stuff, why aren't you taking the trouble to inform yourself, via programs like the one I linked, above? I don't care, one way or another, what your priorities or interests are, but if you don't care enough to at least access the available resources, then please get off my case.

It has re-emerged as recently as 2009

Oh shoot. Because biotech clearly hasn't advanced at all, in the past decade. I'm sure anything we couldn't do in 2009, we'll never be able to do.

Of FAR more concern to me, is the rapidly increasing number of deaths per DAY that we are seeing.

Okay, so why aren't you reading about or listening to developments in the realm of what people are trying, with antivirals? That sounds promising - even in the short-term.

The reports of low fatality rates are based on numbers from early assessments. Re-assessments from more recent numbers are likely to not be nearly as kind

Sure. I know I've heard that China is not counting people who weren't diagnosed, prior to death. And since their over-taxed health system hasn't been able to keep up with the demand, this means they also haven't been able to quarantine people fast enough, which is increasing the rate of contagion. So, if they manage to get on top of that, then it's conceivable that the death rate will rise, but the contagion rate will actually drop (then again, improvements in diagnosis could identify so many more mild cases, that the net effect could still be a drop in mortality).

But, there are some other noteworthy points, regarding contagion. The Wuhan city officials went ahead with a big, public Chinese New Years banquet, mid-January, right when the outbreak was getting started. This, no doubt, turbo-charged the contagion rate, in that city.

China has since banned public dining in Beijing & other major cities, so the thing to watch is whether we see similar rates of contagion outside of Wuhan.

When 5000 are dead, and there are rapidly growing numbers in countries other than China, I'm going to revisit some threads and ask people if they still feel the same way they do right now.

If you're concerned about something, the best thing to do is learn more. It puts certain things in perspective, even though it might not alleviate your core concerns.

And, in my opinion, good news organizations like BBC are the best way to do that, since they have access to leading virologists, epidemiologists, immunologists, public health experts, and other experts, and take the time to get a more complete picture of the situation. I also think they're less prone to being alarmist than some media organizations.

Not only is their science coverage good, but their other news programming fills in a lot of details about public policy, their containment measures, and how well those and their health system actually seem to be working. I get a lot of my news from this, which has 9 half-hour editions per week:

BBC World Service - Global News Podcast - Available now

Available episodes of Global News Podcast

www.bbc.co.uk

Maybe also head on over to ScientificAmerican.com . Right on their front page, they have this article linked:

How Does the New Coronavirus Compare with the Flu?

The flu has already caused about 10,000 deaths this season in the U.S. alone

www.scientificamerican.com

Sounds interesting, eh? Well, I guess the main takeaway I got was some statistics on the flu that I hadn't previously seen. But, the point is, there's surely other good content out there, without going quite to the level of phys.org reports on individual studies and findings.

Phys.org - News and Articles on Science and Technology

phys.org

 

[bit_user]

A vaccine? It's been 17 years since SARS first appeared and 7 years since MERS, and there has been no vaccine.

Actually, it seems there was a vaccine developed for SARS. I see wikipedia doesn't think so, but perhaps that's simply because the testing for it wasn't completed. Anyway, you should listen to this 5-minute interview, since it not only covers that, but also the new vaccine development techniques currently being used for 2019-nCoV.

Newshour - China: Scientists search for coronavirus vaccine - BBC Sounds

Travel restrictions stepped up as spread of virus accelerates

www.bbc.co.uk

(The interview segment starts at about 7m 49s.)​

They also touch on a universal flu vaccine, currently in development, and the potential for a universal coronavirus vaccine.

 

[bit_user]

When 5000 are dead, and there are rapidly growing numbers in countries other than China, I'm going to revisit some threads and ask people if they still feel the same way they do right now.

If you're concerned about that, you should contact your House Representative & Senators and urge them to support a contribution to the global coronavirus preparedness fund:

US$675 million needed for new coronavirus preparedness and response global plan

To fight further spread of the new coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak in China and globally, and protect states with weaker health systems, the international community has launched a US$675 million preparedness and response plan covering the months of February through to April 2020.

www.who.int

When you revive this thread, it will be a good chance to tell us whether you followed through on that, and what kind of response you got.

However, if you're not willing to do even that much, then I think your "I told you so"'s are going to ring awfully hollow.

 

[cryoburner]

I was referring to the fact that you're grossly underestimating the number of people who are essentially being confined to their homes. I just heard an estimate that something like as much as 5% of China is currently on lock down, which is a heck of a lot more than those with the infection.

I didn't underestimate the number of people confined to their homes at all, because at no point was I even estimating that. : P I was pointing out that the number of people actually infected is still quite small, relatively speaking, and undoubtedly far smaller than the number confined to their homes, so just because a lot of people are stuck at home doesn't mean they're necessarily at high risk of getting the disease. I was pretty much saying the same thing you are.

When 5000 are dead, and there are rapidly growing numbers in countries other than China, I'm going to revisit some threads and ask people if they still feel the same way they do right now.

Meanwhile...

"CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 22 million flu illnesses, 210,000 hospitalizations and 12,000 deaths from flu."

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

And that's only in the US, primarily within the last couple months. Those numbers are undoubtedly substantially higher in China. Now this certainly seems to be a more severe illness than the flu, and it's fine to be concerned and a good idea to take extra precautions against something like this, but the numbers so far have not exactly been too out of line with other viral outbreaks that occur on a yearly basis, which the majority of the populace isn't exactly living in fear over.

 

[bit_user]

Now this certainly seems to be a more severe illness than the flu,

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-does-the-new-coronavirus-compare-with-the-flu/​

...just in case you'd like to know.

 

[sdmf1974]

I hope Nvidia doesnt use this as an excuse to charge an extra $400 for a gpu