Report: SSD Market Revenues Will More Than Double in 2013

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A Bad Day

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There should also be a push on the laptop manufacturers to adopt mSATA ports for laptops that only have one 2.5" hard drive cage. I don't like being forced to choose between a HDD+DVD, SSD+HDD, or a SSD+DVD laptop.
 

phamhlam

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[citation][nom]vern72[/nom]I'm not even going to look at an SSD until I can get one that can handle millions of rewrites.[/citation]

Well, You will be missing out. I had a SSD that been running 2 years strong and no problems. It has been so worth it. I always tell people that the problems with most computers is that they don't have a SSD.
 

anort3

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Agreed. I paid over $250 for my 120GB Vertex 2 just about two and a half years ago and not only don't regret it, I consider it money well spent.
 

A Bad Day

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[citation][nom]vern72[/nom]I'm not even going to look at an SSD until I can get one that can handle millions of rewrites.[/citation]

Consumer HDDs usually have a head crash, motor failure, or some other mechanical failure long by the time current SSDs wear out.
 

A Bad Day

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EDIT: Three laptops in my lifetime failed within 3-5 years of operation because the hard drives broke somehow. One of them had a head crash, another one probably had a burnt out motor.

I'd rather have a gradually slowing SSD than a sudden HDD failure anyways.
 

anxiousinfusion

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[citation][nom]vern72[/nom]I'm not even going to look at an SSD until I can get one that can handle millions of rewrites.[/citation]

Do you plan on using the same computer for many decades?
 

warmon6

Splendid
[citation][nom]vern72[/nom]I'm not even going to look at an SSD until I can get one that can handle millions of rewrites.[/citation]

If you said this back in 08/09 time frame, people might agreed with you....

Although in this day in age, SSD can really handle the a lot of stuff now and the number of reasons for not having an SSD is getting smaller as the years go by.

In 09, most people recommend only most frequently used programs (that didn't write a lot) and the OS to be on the drive. (didn't help that affordable ssd's were only like 16/32GB in size and the only one you could trust was Intel....)

Now, there getting large enough that they can handle (a decent amount of) games, and other programs that write a decent amount and these have been lasting for at least 2 to 3 without any major signs of slowing/wearing down.

When they hit 5 to 6 year's, your probably already looking at something new so it wont really matter to much if it heavily slowed down (which even for hdd, after 5 years, most people looking for a new drive to run at least the OS. )

Heck, about the only reasons not to have an SSD is pretty much specific to the task you need and most of the task that I can think of is not really limited to the the write cycle of the ssd. The main limit is the drive capacity.

Which even that reason is starting to get smaller. About 2 years ago, 120GB was $200 to 300. Now, you can get one for $100. Watch in the next year or 2 when 256GB's will be in that range.

Waiting for write cycle to reach your expectation is not a valid excuse for the majority of people anymore.

Unless you run a specific program that writes a ton to the drive, most likely a drive will last at least 3 to 5 years before needing a change (for the common person, the drives will last longer than that).
 

CaedenV

Splendid
[citation][nom]vern72[/nom]I'm not even going to look at an SSD until I can get one that can handle millions of rewrites.[/citation]
SSDs have about as much write endurance as a typical HDD, what tends to die is the controller, not the nand, and if you buy a good quality drive then that is not much of an issue.

Also, with every successive generation of SSDs write endurance goes DOWN not up. Moving to TLC, and smaller dies only makes it harder to write more information, so you are going to have to wait an awfully looooooong time before you are going to see those kinds of writes available. And as stated before, you don't get that kind of write endurance even on consumer and pro-sumer HDDs anyways.

The best you can do is get a drive that is slightly bigger than your needs and you will not have an issue running through writes. Use the SSD as your OS/Program disc, and if you have something that has some heavy writes then buy a cheap SSD specifically for that purpose and just burn through it. If you are doing something that write intensive then you should be paid enough that the extra productivity provided by an SSD will more than pay for the material costs.
 

CaedenV

Splendid
[citation][nom]vern72[/nom]I'm not even going to look at an SSD until I can get one that can handle millions of rewrites.[/citation]
Sucks for you, I like that Adobe Premere opens in 5 secconds instead of 50+
 

mapesdhs

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Strange, in recent weeks in the UK it seems like SSD prices have
been rising. For example, the Samsung 830 256GB dropped as low as
130 UKP, but now it's typically more like 150 to 160. Likewise,
similar 'quality' SSDs (Vertex4, that sort of thing) all appear to
have risen a bit, while what had been a steady decline in 60/64GB
and 120/128GB prices last autumn has ground to a halt or reversed.

I wonder, are companies not bothering to drop prices at the moment
because they simply don't need to? ie. the demand is there to soak
up products at current prices.

I also notice that supplies of older products dry up suspiciously
fast when newer models come out. I want to buy a couple of 830 256s,
they're more than enough for me, yet in just the space of barely a
month since the 840 launch it appears numerous sites now list the
830 as "discontinued", or just no longer in stock with no expected
restock date, or the price has gone way up to 175+.

I tried looking at 64/64GB models this week. Some sites suddenly
have very few available, or a narrow brand choice, and the prices
are barely any less than 120/128 models, eg. 62 UKP for a 64GB vs.
80 UKP for the 128GB quivalent - very silly.

To me this smells like the beginning of the proverbial supply &
demand effect kicking in as regards pricing, a bit like the way
normal HDD makers have reliased they don't need to sell 1TB disks
as cheap as they did before the Thai floods (I remember getting
some for only 36 each at one point). If this is indeed the year of
a huge surge in demand for SSDs, then we may not see that much of
a move on pricing in absolute terms at all. Either that or, as new
models come out, they will simply replace older models at the same
price points while stocks of older models quickly vanish via
controlled supply, instead of one at least being able to buy older
models for less for a while.

I've done a lot of SSD price hunting this past week. It really does
feel quite different to what was happening to prices about 3 or 4
months ago. Many sites just have a whole list of products which are
not in stock, or with weird/inconsistent pricing (or both).

Anyone notice this elsewhere? Or is it just the UK?


A good example of how annoying this can be is when considering an
SSD upgrade for an older system that just has SATA2. My own tests
show that newer SATA3 models offer little extra in performance (for
obvious reasons) than older models which are perhaps more optimised
for SATA2 links. Thus, for example, upgrading my gf's PC, I've been
looking for a 120GB Vertex2E as it works nicely on SATA2 systems,
but it's either not available now, or the prices are crazy, eg. on
one site the V2E 120GB is 75, vs. just 80 for a Samsung 840. Surely
the V2E should be much less by now. One may as well buy a Sandisk
Extreme or Agility3 (I'd rather not; I like the V2Es). By contrast,
just a few weeks ago I was able to buy some V2E 120s for 52 each, a
price which seems a lot more logical given the current product range.

I was hoping good model 240/256GB prices would drop below 100 UKP
before the Spring, but if demand is indeed going up a lot then I
can't see that happening. Pity.


My price searches typically cover about 30+ different UK suppliers,
and not just the most well known such as Scan, Aria, DABS, etc. Others
include (ie. sites I trust, in no particular order) Ballicom, techdna,
trustedhardware, Microdirect, tekheads, lambdatek, novatech (the source
of my V2E/120 splash a while ago), ebuyer (source of the 830 256s when
they'd dropped to 130 UKP), Amazon (source for some V2E 120 MAX IOPS
when they dropped to only 80 each), overclock.co.uk, technextday,
ikatek, CCL, Eclipse, Redstore, etc. NB: make good use of Google if you
find a company you've not heard of before; check trustpilot, webutation,
and other sites that have meta-info & reviews about online shopping
sites (search for the web site name with words such as 'review',
'rating', 'scam', 'trusted', etc.)

Ian.

 

InvalidError

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[citation][nom]A Bad Day[/nom]Consumer HDDs usually have a head crash, motor failure, or some other mechanical failure long by the time current SSDs wear out.[/citation]
I have a bunch of ~10 years old consumer-grade drives (mostly Maxtor and WD) that are still in working order after 50000+ (over 5 years worth) power-on hours... most of those were from back when standard warranties were 5-years.

All my failed drives died somewhere between the first year and second year mark. None of those that have made it beyond that have failed yet and that includes a misbalanced Seagate drive that sounds like a lawnmower which I never expected to survive more than a few days before self-destructing from excessive vibrations.

Google published a paper about HDD failures across their computer park that comes to a similar conclusion: drives that are destined to fail will usually fail early (first year or so), the rest will most likely last for a long while as long as exposure to vibrations and temperatures outside the 25-40C range is minimized. The most reliable indicator of impending failure they have found is reallocated sector count where drives tend to have substantially higher failure rates over the next few months from the first remapped sector.
 

A Bad Day

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[citation][nom]InvalidError[/nom]I have a bunch of ~10 years old consumer-grade drives (mostly Maxtor and WD) that are still in working order after 50000+ (over 5 years worth) power-on hours... most of those were from back when standard warranties were 5-years.All my failed drives died somewhere between the first year and second year mark.[/citation]

My 11 year old desktop's no-brand 32 GB HDD still works.

Though for obvious reasons, we don't use the desktop much anymore. An 11" laptop that my dad bought a few months ago is superior to the old desktop in every way possible, except for being a worse paper weight (lol).
 

mapesdhs

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*yawn*

I have 549MB SCSI disks still working after 20 years. :D Think I have some even older units aswell,
though I'm not sure about my 20MB doorstop SCSI drive... (measures 9" x 6" x 3.5") Really ought
to test it sometime, would be a giggle if it's still ok after almost 30 years.

Ian.

 

dishayu

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[citation][nom]anort3[/nom]Agreed. I paid over $250 for my 120GB Vertex 2 just about two and a half years ago and not only don't regret it, I consider it money well spent.[/citation]
85$ for a 128GB Plextor M5, best money ever spent on a computer upgrade. :D
 

redgarl

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SSD are now a must. I don't think they can match the capacity of the standard hard drive though.

I purchased my Vertex for 200$ and I thought it was a steal at that time >:p
 

mapesdhs

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It's possible that as normal HDD capacities grow, we could see some unexpected
decisions being made by consumers about what to buy. Suppose you could buy a
16TB SATA3 disk right now, would you really want to trust such a huge amount of
data to a single device? I know I'm not touching 4TB models for a while until
the manufacturing has matured a little. Might even just wait to get an
Enterprise version instead when they appear 2nd-hand (still more reliable
than new generic consumer SATA IMO), and in time I want to have some kind of
backup that's better than just a 2nd clone drive (Ultrium or something).

Who knows, maybe consumers will start erring on the side of a larger number of
smaller drives, also making RAID1 and RAID10 more viable/economic. The other
problem with single very big drives is the comparatively slow speed, not for
random access (that's a given), but rather the ability to copy lots of
sequential data - takes quite a while these days to clone one 2TB disk to
another. In other words, capacites have grown quickly from 1TB through 2TB to
3TB, but I/O rates have barely changed (compare the max read/write of the
latest 3TB to the 1TB Samsung F1).

On the other hand, most mbds don't have the ports to support a large number of
disks, or the physical space. Perhaps what would be more useful in the
mechanical HDD space is for an accelerated move to the 2.5" form factor.
Yesterday I bought a 1TB Hitachi 5400rpm for 57 UKP; not as fast as a 3.5",
but not any more costly than most models. With the smaller space required,
lots of these or 2TB models for RAID10 would be quite nice, and the speed
would then not be a problem since the RAID includes RAID0 underneath.


Btw, I tested 8 x SSDs on an HP P410 SAS card, gives 2GB/sec. :D (would be
more, but the links were only 3Gbit)

Ian.

 

mapesdhs

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PS. This is a typical way of holding multiple 2.5" drives while maintaining nice visual appeal:

http://www.startech.com/HDD/Mobile-Racks/4-Drive-25in-Removable-SAS-SATA-Mobile-Rack-Backplane~SATSASBAY425

I have one for my main desktop, though it's in an external case so that the drives inside
are not wasting power when they're not being used (it's solely for backup).

Most cases have an excessive no. of 5.25" bays these days, so a few of these can hold
a lot of drives, and it looks good. As for extra ports, I guess there are numerous PCIe
SATA cards available.

Ian.

 

jn77

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I also think in regards to 4TB drives being to big to trust...... I think more people will look into mult drive NAS units so if 1x 4TB HD fails, they don't loose their data cause they are running a 5 x 4TB raid through the NAS, just replace the bad HD and move on...... no data loss.
 
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