I am sitting here in 1am in the morning, having lot of work ahead but wondering about stuff and ideas pop in my head. Here is the latest one
😀 :
I think ATI is preparing hell of a trap for nVidia. The fact that they are grabbing market now with their smaller, better desing from which they actually win money and nVidia fighting for the only chance they have to make BIG chip , and still losing money, that fact is very disturbing for nVidia.
If I was nVidia I will suppose that with moving to 40nm ATI will try to at least upgrade a lot their compute power and make them a lot faster (as there is a lot of headroom for them). However, if I was ATI I wouldnt do that!!! Instead I will do a minor upgrade like 50% faster than previous generation, but DX11 being a strong card that can bring even more benefits. What will give me that approach. Well for instance CHEAPER cards. Cheaper to manufacture as the chip will be even smaller die size and still faster and still consuming same or lower power.
Now pay attention. Currently there is no game you cant max out with current generation cards (and have leftovers even). May be Crysis is exception but thats only on high resolutions with AA and VeryHigh details. (0.0001% of the market cares about that). Looking ahead at 2010 , I havent heard 1 big title which will have monster hardware requirements like Crysis did. Hell if you have 4870 1GB I bet you will be ok till end of 2010. So the hardware is ahead of software.
Now if you produce a tiny chips which are powerful enough and can place them in the mid/low market -then you are going to WIN big time. Milions and milions users get just whats good enough for the least money. only 0.1% market cares about the VERY VERY high market. And still who will want to buy a monster video card , that exsausts 300W of heat, and gives him 300fps in every game. Some will say , well I will be able to play games even after 2-3 years then. Well who cares. in 2-3 years you will buy another card or generation which will still be better and for less money.
The period at the moment is such that a small compact chip will (only by my opinion) rule the market. I bet they can make the die size 1.3x and still include 1200 shaders, 1.5x- 2x Texture Units, 1.5-2 x ROPS and DX11. When you move to 40nm you have about 2x reduction so 256x1.3/2 = 170mm2 die size. BRRRRRR
you can even dual core it to put some faster cards on the market and still be reasonable priced(like $300-$350). Hell you can dual chip / dual core it (4 cores 2 chips) and get x4 and still have competitor for the GT300 and still have MUCH better yields and lower manufacturing. And you will RULE the 90% of the market.
The trap is set. Lets see what happens. What do you guys think , am I dilusional or I need to get back to my work
