Solid states future

[alidan]

i have a few questions that i cant really find answers to.

1, something of a projection. how long will it take for ssd to become the same price as a normal hard drive, but tjust 1/3 the space.

like 200$ for a 2tb hard drive, = 200 for a 750gp sdd

2. what is the current theoretical max space capable on a 2.5 inch form factor.

to put in perspective, a sd size device has a theoretical max of 2tb, but is artificially restricted to less.

3. why is there no 3.5 form factor drives? as of writing this i haven't seen a sdd drive that was 3.5 inch form factor, just adapters to make them fit that form factor.

would drives be cheaper if they made them bigger?
would they take a performance hit?
do they just not think that people with a real computer, not laptop, just dont want a ssd drive?

 

[sub mesa]

1. If your question is when will SSDs be as cheap as HDDs per Gigabyte - i would say in about 10-15 years. At that time the HDDs will become very expensive as their production volume shrinks due to lower demand. When you can buy a 750GB SSD for 200 dollars? I'd say within 10 years.

2. Theoretical? I don't think there is an easy answer to this. As larger capacity NAND chips come out, it also doubles the capacity of the SSD. Also, we might see stacked NAND with a controller chip beneath on future models; this would allow more efficient use of space and create multi-PB size SSDs in 2.5" form factor. I would rather assume the form factor shrinks to 1.8" and you get an SSD that plugs directly in the SATA port; or PCI-express slot.

3. Why would you want to waste space that is not needed; have you looked how tiny an SSD really is? Its just chips; no rotating platters that need an engine to drive; such as the case with HDDs.

 

[alidan]

well for 1, i used a desktop full tower computer. so regardless, to fit that drive in my computer, i need a adapter or just have the drive laying around in my computer.

and 2 there is an upper limit to everything. jike how much data could fit onto a dvd, as an example no matter how bad it is. or the process of shrinking chips, at some point and i beleive its around 5nm, they will hit the limit od how much you can shrink them based on current tech.

what im asking is by current tech, what is the threoretical max given the 2.5 form factor.

and a ssd that plugs into the sata, yea, there is already something like that, i don't have a link but it was released in japan a while ago.

 

[RetiredChief]

(1) About the time SSDs will hit the same price as HDDs they will be out dated. ie replaced by newer technology such as holographic memory.

(2) As too form factor, the major HDD manuf just started coming out with SSDs. I'm not to sure they will put out a 3 1/2' form factor. It is more costly (the housing) and I'm not sure the demand would be there to warrent two assembly lines. Most desktop users would probably prefer the 2 1/2" w/adaptor as it would allow for better air flow.

However, if the cost did come down where the added space could be utilized, well who knows.

I have NO idea what the therorical max size is, when I Bank my first million I might look into it.

 

[jsc]

I have NO idea what the therorical max size is, when I Bank my first million I might look into it.

I remember people wondering back in the 80286 days how to make a CPU faster than 25 MHz. I remember when hard drives looked like they were going to crack the 200 MB, people were wondering how they were going to make drives bigger than 300 MB. I remember when 2 micron chip appeared people were wondering how they were going to make sub-micron chips. I remember ...

Well, you get the idea. Whatever you forecast, it will be bigger, smaller, faster, or more powerful.

 

[sub mesa]

Nah, there was no reason they couldnt make a 300MB disk if they can make 200MB disks. The limits of technology are there though, harddrives needed vertical storage (perpendicular recording) to get the data densities they have now. And they will need Heat-Assisted Recording (HAR) to go beyond these limits as well.

So every technology has its limits; instead of a hard limit often a different technology is used if the old one is obsolete or can no longer scale well enough.

You can also see CPUs not getting much higher frequency than 4GHz, even though they are getting faster. Just not by the simple "add MHz to make it faster" route as Intel found that to be a dead end.