Archived from groups: alt.cellular.sprintpcs (
More info?)
"Robert M." <rmarkoff@msn.com> wrote in message
news:rmarkoff-933365.10003621042004@news05.east.earthlink.net...
> In article <mQvhc.101$1f5.42@newssvr16.news.prodigy.com>,
> "Chris Russell" <noone@nowhere.nospam> wrote:
>
> >
http://rcrnews.com/cgi-bin/news.pl?newsId=17766
> >
> >how are you going to distort this?
> >
> > Chris
>
> That whole story is a SprintPCS spin/distortion. Comparing churn with a
> year ago, instead of last quarter is a deliberate obfuscation.
Not really, Phil- its a good business practice. As much as a person
wouldn't think, cellular certainly has a seasonal cycle, and a comparison
from quarter to quarter is not always the best indicator. 3rd and 4th
quarters are always the strongest sales periods (back to school and the
holidays). And because more contracts are sold during these times, the
churn cycle is going to reflect this. Year to year is going to be a more
accurate reflection of the business cycle.
>
> Saying subscriber growth is strong is only telling half the story.
>
> Subscriber defections are also strong, as the churn numbers releqased
> yesterday demonstrates, having increased from the previous quarter.
They're strong everywhere. If Verizon comes in at 2.5% a month for the
whole year (which is a reasonable expectation), they will lose over 8
million customers in 2004. That's almost 2/3 of the entire subscriber base
for the sixth largest domestic carrier (Nextel). If you look at the raw
numbers, that's a whole lot worse than Sprint, and yet they are number one
in CS in most surveys. My opinion on this is below.
>
> Apologists might try to blame it on WLNP, but interestingly SprintPCS
> did not state the comparative numbers of losses versus gains from WLNP.
> You know if they had a net gain there, that would be the lead story.
Its not WLNP, its the nature of the beast. A greater number of subscribers
have met their contractual obligation with their carrier, and with all of
the free phones and rate plan bonuses being offered, many are choosing to
move out of economics, not hatred for the carrier. Look at that 8 million
number for Verizon- they offer good coverage, good service (for cellular)
and the only knock might be that they are pricey on their plans. Why would
people leave a sitaution like that? Money.
Bottom line- there are way too many players in the market for stability to
occur. And, as you mention in one of your other posts, the water is about
to get murkier with the addition of AT&T and MCI as brand name players.
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