News TSMC Commits to $40 Billion Investment of Arizona Fab With 3nm by 2026

Sluggotg

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Feb 17, 2019
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I am glad to see TSMC continuing to build outside of Taiwan. The Communist Chinese Government could enslave Taiwan at any time. It would be a huge loss to the entire world. (And my TSMC Stock!).
 

TJ Hooker

Titan
Ambassador
I don't think so.
They started building in the US before the subsidy.
Yes and no. They did announce a planned ~$12B Arizona fab in 2020, before any major subsidies were announced AFAIK (or at least any federal ones), but they massively increased their plans once the CHIPS act came into the picture. And implied that the scope and speed of that expansion hinged on the CHIPs act being passed.

 
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Geef

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Am I reading the charts right, that Arizona will get old technology in 2026? Arizona will get N3 tech a year after N2 tech launches.

It won't matter since the newest gen chips aren't the only thing getting produced. Anyway once the N3 tech hardware is in place it won't be set in stone to only do N3. They will continually upgrade/expand the location most likely. Having their physical locations spread around the world helps TSMC from being forced by 'certain' governments to do their bidding.
 

bit_user

Polypheme
Ambassador
Just like Foxcon in WI, they are just here for the tax subsides.
I think they're not comparable. According to wikipedia, the Foxconn Wisconsin Valley Project fell far short of its goals:

"The project originally committed in 2017 to investing $10 billion and employing up to 13,000 workers but has now shrunk to $672 million with 1,454 jobs."​

TSMC presumably isn't going to scale back, like that. This plant will actually have to produce.


BTW, I fear TSMC might have to spend at least as much as they saved in taxes on trucking in water. AZ is in the midst of a major water crisis, which is probably why Intel is building in Ohio and Micron is building in New York.
 
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bit_user

Polypheme
Ambassador
they massively increased their plans once the CHIPS act came into the picture. And implied that the scope and speed of that expansion hinged on the CHIPs act being passed.
Although, we should consider that passage of CHIPS somewhat coincided with escalating tensions with China. So, they might have cited CHIPS as a less controversial rationale, even if it wasn't the main reason.
 

bit_user

Polypheme
Ambassador
China invades Taiwan 2026 - 2027
I've heard speculation that Xi will likely move in advance of the next 5-year Party Congress (in 2027).

That is at least consistent with the addition of an amendment to the Party's charter, during the one in October 2022, which explicitly opposes Taiwan independence. Seems like it could be legal cover for mounting a hostile takeover. Also, with economic growth slowing, he could be looking for another rationale to be kept in office.
 

bit_user

Polypheme
Ambassador
I wonder if it's a deal for the US to protect Taiwan from annexation.
No. There's 0% chance of the US actually getting into a war with China, over Taiwan. It would be unwinnable and a tragic waste of blood and treasure.

The game which the US is playing is to help Taiwan make an invasion more costly, and thus less appetizing to China. It could just be an exercise in delaying the inevitable, but maybe they're hoping just to outlast Xi.
 

Elusive Ruse

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No. There's 0% chance of the US actually getting into a war with China, over Taiwan. It would be unwinnable and a tragic waste of blood and treasure.

The game which the US is playing is to help Taiwan make an invasion more costly, and thus less appetizing to China. It could just be an exercise in delaying the inevitable, but maybe they're hoping just to outlast Xi.
China is a paper tiger just like Russia if not worse, the Russian army at least had consistent experience in invasions and war i.e. Afghanistan, Chechnya, Georgia, Ukraine and Syria (2014) yet they showed their incompetence and consequences of the deep corruption that dogs every autocratic and communist regime. Unlike Ukraine, Taiwan has been preparing for an invasion for decades and been modernising their army with Western armament.
 

bit_user

Polypheme
Ambassador
China is a paper tiger just like Russia if not worse
They've been investing lots in building up their military. Recently, it's come out that they've even been contracting ex-USAF and ex-RAF pilots to help train their air force in combat tactics. We underestimate them at our peril.

Also, China's population is about 10x as big as Russia. Do you really think it's a good idea to stand between them and an island a couple hundred miles off their coast, but several thousand miles from the US? They can launch air sorties from their mainland, while the US needs carriers. Not to mention supply chains... there's just no winning such a war.

the Russian army at least had consistent experience in invasions and war i.e. Afghanistan, Chechnya, Georgia, Ukraine and Syria (2014)
They got run out of Afghanistan, lost Chechnya the first time (bombed it to rubble, the second time). Georgia and Ukraine were small and underdeveloped, at the first instance, and had sympathetic separatists. Plus, Russia didn't take the whole countries, but just bordering regions. They had success in Syria, but were far from alone in that fight & smashing basically a guerilla force and mostly from the air & artillery.

Basically, all of this "experience" was just enough to make them overconfident. I think China will be much more wary and try to go in with completely overwhelming force. They would rather win by mere intimidation than by actually having to fight.

Another thing about Syria is that Russia had no stake in taking rebel-held territory intact. China really doesn't want to take Taiwan at the cost of turning it into a desolate wasteland. There's both the economic value it poses, as well as the optics of causing so much death and destruction.

Unlike Ukraine, Taiwan has been preparing for an invasion for decades and been modernising their army with Western armament.
Taiwan has less than 2% the population of China. Ukraine has about 28% the population of Russia. The only purpose of Taiwan's defenses is to make an invasion costly. They cannot actually win, in an all-out war.

We need to be honest about these things. It's really for the best not to kid ourselves.
 

Elusive Ruse

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Not gonna have an extended military discussion because it's not the place, all I'm gonna say it that military spending and population doesn't count for much when talking about amphibious assault by an unblooded army of a deeply corrupt state.

I apologise to the mods if I inadvertently derailed this thread, feel free to delete my posts accordingly.
 

Amdlova

Distinguished
USA will not help Taiwan, when the TSMC fabric goes online. Will move all team from tsmc Taiwanto EUA, and it's done. China have superior man power, all this time taking islands and buying ports... the maritime trade, it's on check. The war is incoming to south of America, Chile based and maybe Brazil. To China nuke EUA at Mach 5, 6 it's about one hour. So be happy
 

bit_user

Polypheme
Ambassador
USA will not help Taiwan, when the TSMC fabric goes online.
Look, clearly the USA CHIPS Act is an acknowledgement of Taiwan's vital role in the supply chain vs. their precarious positon. However, the US has long supported Taiwan and sold it arms. So, the support we have given isn't so deeply self-interested.

Even if China went in today, the US still wouldn't directly intervene, for obvious reasons I've already outlined. I know Biden recently said otherwise, but that's what's known as a bluff. By saying that, he's just trying to sew some doubt, probably in hopes of stalling for time.

For its part, I think TSMC is still going to try and maintain the very latest tech + R&D in Taiwan, because it's become vital to the Taiwanese economy. Also, a lot of that investment is locked up in the brains of Taiwanese who don't want to leave, unless an invasion seems imminent, if even then.