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gg83

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I really want to know how the US was able to stop a Taiwanese company from selling to a Chinese company. They must use a ton of IP owned by US companies. Taiwan also known as Republic of China, I guess isn't part of the Peoples Republic of China? Maybe someone knows more about the political status. Do Western counties do everything they can to prevent Taiwan from becoming part of a communist Country?
 
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purple_dragon

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Yes, they use pretty much U.S owned IP, most of there income comes from U.S purchases. Also, Taiwan is its own country since 1949 when the Chinese Nationalists were ferried there by the U.S. Navy and others after being pushed out of China after Mao and the Chinese communist party won the Chinese Civil War.
 

GenericUser

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I really want to know how the US was able to stop a Taiwanese company from selling to a Chinese company. They must use a ton of IP owned by US companies. Taiwan also known as Republic of China, I guess isn't part of the Peoples Republic of China? Maybe someone knows more about the political status. Do Western counties do everything they can to prevent Taiwan from becoming part of a communist Country?
I'm no geopolitical expert in the matter, but the last I've understood of the situation with Taiwan, is that it's a mess. Essentially, Taiwan acts as if it was its own country, and I believe would prefer to continue to operate that way, but China disagrees and claims that Taiwan is part of their own sovereign territory. Most of the world tends to keep some level of policy of "deliberate ambiguity" regarding the matter so that they can treat Taiwan as it's own separate country as far as relations go, but without explicitly calling it such and drawing the ire of China.

Someone more well versed in the matter though feel free to clarify/correct me.
 

shady28

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I'm no geopolitical expert in the matter, but the last I've understood of the situation with Taiwan, is that it's a mess. Essentially, Taiwan acts as if it was its own country, and I believe would prefer to continue to operate that way, but China disagrees and claims that Taiwan is part of their own sovereign territory. Most of the world tends to keep some level of policy of "deliberate ambiguity" regarding the matter so that they can treat Taiwan as it's own separate country as far as relations go, but without explicitly calling it such and drawing the ire of China.

Someone more well versed in the matter though feel free to clarify/correct me.
Nothing's ever that simple ya know.

Wikipedia has a great article on Taiwan. I'll summarize key dates below:

~6000 years ago Taiwan settled by what we consider 'indigenous' people (not part of China)
1683 - Annex by China
1895 - Ceded to Japan
1945 - Part of China after Japan was defeated in WW II (note that China was in a civil war at this time)
1949 - ROC flees to Taiwan

From what I can tell, there were battles related to their civil war still being fought up until 1960 :

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1960–61_campaign_at_the_China–Burma_border
 

bit_user

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Taiwan also known as Republic of China, I guess isn't part of the Peoples Republic of China? Maybe someone knows more about the political status.
That's exactly the point. China has no jurisdiction over Taiwan - their only means of influence is what coercive tactics they can use, similar to the US. However, Taiwan is just a couple hundred miles off the coast of China and many thousands of miles from the US. So, Taiwan has to play a delicate balancing act not to upset China too much.

Do Western counties do everything they can to prevent Taiwan from becoming part of a communist Country?
You've got it backwards. If Taiwan wanted to be formally part of China, it would happen in a heartbeat. Taiwan is the one that wants to maintain its independence from China, especially after watching the history of Hong Kong, since its handover from the British.

Since you're interested enough to voice an opinion on the matter, I think it'd be well worth your while to spend a few minutes brushing up on Taiwan's history and origins.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan
 
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bit_user

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Ambassador
What about the brain drain from asian countries the US is responsible for?
Jensen Huang, Lisa Su, so american names, right?
I don't really get your point. There are also lots of Chinese that attend Western universities and go right back to China, or maybe a while after working for a while. There are even Chinese-educated who emigrate to work elsewhere. That's what happens when you have free movement of people. They're free to pursue their own interests, be it educational, professional, political/personal freedom, or otherwise. Even Chairman Xi Jinping briefly studied in the US state of Iowa.

It's simply not related to this issue, in any way.
 

bit_user

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The question readers should be asking themselves is this: What's the long game?

China is a master of the long game. No doubt, this will hurt them in the short term. At best, it could give Trump some negotiating leverage, in trade talks. But those are completely stalled, for now. China will likely wait and see how the US election turns out, before returning to the negotiating table. Even if/when they do, I still don't expect them to cave.

In the long run, I foresee this hurting TSMC, hurting the US tech industry, and only serving to accelerate China's development of its own domestic semiconductor manufacturing capability. On the US side of the ledger, Trump has presided over a widening of the trade deficit than he started with, meanwhile US businesses and consumers have paid billions of dollars to the US Treasury Dept in tariffs (which are just another name for taxes). The US economy has been carried by tax cuts that added trillions of dollars to the federal debt, which we can't keep doing forever. The US is not winning the long game.
 

Phaaze88

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The question readers should be asking themselves is this: What's the long game?

China is a master of the long game. No doubt, this will hurt them in the short term. At best, it could give Trump some negotiating leverage, in trade talks. But those are completely stalled, for now. China will likely wait and see how the US election turns out, before returning to the negotiating table. Even if/when they do, I still don't expect them to cave.

In the long run, I foresee this hurting TSMC, hurting the US tech industry, and only serving to accelerate China's development of its own domestic semiconductor manufacturing capability. On the US side of the ledger, Trump has presided over a widening of the trade deficit than he started with, meanwhile US businesses and consumers have paid billions of dollars to the US Treasury Dept in tariffs (which are just another name for taxes). The US economy has been carried by tax cuts that added trillions of dollars to the federal debt, which we can't keep doing forever. The US is not winning the long game.
Thing like this, and certain other events, make me pause and think: What's so great about this country again?
There are so many annoying and stupid things going on over here, I'm frankly sick of it - it's why I seldom watch TV and avoid most social media outlets; it gets depressing.

People in other countries have their circumstances, I'm sure, but to want to come over here: Are you sure about that?
Ireland seems like a nice place to live...
 

shady28

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Thing like this, and certain other events, make me pause and think: What's so great about this country again?
There are so many annoying and stupid things going on over here, I'm frankly sick of it - it's why I seldom watch TV and avoid most social media outlets; it gets depressing.

People in other countries have their circumstances, I'm sure, but to want to come over here: Are you sure about that?
Ireland seems like a nice place to live...
Seriously? You may have seen too much CCP propaganda, it comes from the western media too as our corporate overlords want to appease China to gain access to what appears to be a large market. I use the word appears deliberately.

Whatever you think you see in the USA, how does it compare to this :


"Independent Tribunal into Forced Organ Harvesting from Prisoners of Conscience in China issued its final report concluding that China engages in the systematic human-rights atrocity of killing political and other prisoners and harvesting their organs. (I wrote about the preliminary report here.) It is a horrific account about which woefully inadequate attention has been paid.
...
According to the report, beginning at page 415, there are four methods by which China kills prisoners and harvests their organs.
  1. Organ harvesting from prisoners incompletely executed by shooting;
  2. Organ harvesting from prisoners after lethal injection;
  3. Execution by organ explantation (killing by organ harvesting);
  4. Organ harvesting under the pretext of brain death (taking organs from people not really dead).
The question becomes, what, if anything, will be done about it? So far, the depressing answer is, “Not much.” Oh, the U.S. has imposed certain sanctions. But, as the old saying goes, that and six bits will buy you a cup of coffee."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/zakdoffman/2019/11/16/china-covers-up-killing-of-prisoners-to-harvest-organs-for-transplant-new-report/#562865102ec7

"China has said that the practice has been outlawed, replaced with a system of voluntary donations. But a new report, published on November 14 in the BMC Medical Ethics journal, has refuted this, alleging that those claims of reform are being supported by the “systematic falsification and manipulation of official organ transplant datasets in China.” "

The above is largely part of ethnic cleansing, and if true it dwarfs the Jewish holocaust of the 1930s and 40s.

But we just gotta have our cheap Chinese stuff, right.
 

Deicidium369

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I'm no geopolitical expert in the matter, but the last I've understood of the situation with Taiwan, is that it's a mess. Essentially, Taiwan acts as if it was its own country, and I believe would prefer to continue to operate that way, but China disagrees and claims that Taiwan is part of their own sovereign territory. Most of the world tends to keep some level of policy of "deliberate ambiguity" regarding the matter so that they can treat Taiwan as it's own separate country as far as relations go, but without explicitly calling it such and drawing the ire of China.

Someone more well versed in the matter though feel free to clarify/correct me.
Taiwan says it's an independent nation, China, however, disagrees. IF China takes the same tact with Taiwan as it is doing in Hong Kong, the US WILL NOT intervene - this is their back yard, and when they decide Taiwan is part of mainland China, it will be a done deal. This is not the Chinese under Mao - completely different China.
 

nightsc

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Taiwan says it's an independent nation, China, however, disagrees. IF China takes the same tact with Taiwan as it is doing in Hong Kong, the US WILL NOT intervene - this is their back yard, and when they decide Taiwan is part of mainland China, it will be a done deal. This is not the Chinese under Mao - completely different China.
You do know it's much, much, much different scenario to interfere Taiwan than HK right?

CCP will try it's best to avoid war, because after all, Money solves everything, not War.


PS. why are we discussing this here lol...:ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO:
 
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nofanneeded

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Can some one please explain to me why Intel does not ask TSMC to make their chips until they can move th 5nm Technology ? intel is badly stuck at 14nm and it is a huge problem for them.

Just make intel chips outside intel until they are ready.
 

Phaaze88

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Ambassador
Can some one please explain to me why Intel does not ask TSMC to make their chips until they can move th 5nm Technology ? intel is badly stuck at 14nm and it is a huge problem for them.

Just make intel chips outside intel until they are ready.
Their pride? You know, like how they are so stubborn with dropping the prices on their cpus, even though AMD has very competitive options?
Cpus from like 10 years ago still have close to their original retail price.
 

bit_user

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Thing like this, and certain other events, make me pause and think: What's so great about this country again?
Basic freedoms and rights.

If you lived in China and the town bosses decided to put a factory or a condo building where you lived, you'd have no recourse. Protest, and they might throw you in jail. Their legal system is a joke, with defense lawyers themselves being persecuted for even trying to uphold the laws on the books.

Their internet is monitored and censored. Speaking out too many times will land you in jail, without even a public trial. And face recognition is everywhere.

They've had numerous food contamination scandals and lack the worker and environmental protections you enjoy.

And if they don't like your religion and ethnicity, you might be subject to forced sterilization and being locked up in a re-education camp.

Let's say fortune smiles on you and you're a successful businessman, in China. You have to pay to play, but if the political allies you choose fall out of favor, you could get prosecuted for it.

I respect China as an adversary, but I sure wouldn't want to live there. It's probably the closest thing to a real-world 1984, although at least the educated city dwellers seem to have a decent standard of living.

There are so many annoying and stupid things going on over here, I'm frankly sick of it
...
Ireland seems like a nice place to live...
It sure wasn't, 10 years ago, when they had to undergo years of painful austerity to bail out their banks. Everywhere has its problems, some bigger than others. And the nicer the country, the harder it usually is to move there.

Instead of entertaining notions of emigrating that you're not really serious about, I would channel that energy into what little things you can do to make your current home a little better. The problems are big, but enough people pushing in the right directions can make real change.
 

bit_user

Splendid
Ambassador
Can some one please explain to me why Intel does not ask TSMC to make their chips until they can move th 5nm Technology ? intel is badly stuck at 14nm and it is a huge problem for them.
Hmmm... their business model? I mean, it would make their margins look a lot more like AMD's.

Also, TSMC certainly doesn't have the capacity. It would probably take them like 5 years to build out all the fabs they'd need to take over Intel's manufacturing business.

And, you want to hear something really mind-blowing? They both use lithography machines from the same vendor!

Intel should be able to get this right. They just underinvested in their manufacturing R&D, and it's taking them a while to catch up.

Just make intel chips outside intel until they are ready.
There were actually rumors of them moving some chips, like Ethernet controllers and maybe even motherboard chipsets to 3rd party fabs. But, I think they just move them to older fabs of theirs, still using an earlier process node.

Another funny thing is how Intel's manufacturing arm was once so successful that they even started manufacturing chips for 3rd parties, themselves. In some cases, they went so far as to accept manufacturing contracts for ARM-based SoCs! As recently as the early days of their 14 nm node, it seemed like no one else could ever catch them.
 
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Phaaze88

Glorious
Ambassador
Right. Everywhere has its circumstances. I don't know how bad it really is because I'm not there.

It's hard to keep my monologues to myself at times...

The problems are big, but enough people pushing in the right directions can make real change.
Yeah, I'd like to see these gun control laws get reformed. The degree of gun violence here is up there compared to other countries.
The problem lies in that the NRA pretty much owns, or is in cahoots, with some of these politicians - especially that one guy who started a trade war with China...
There's also the disaster that is the national debt...



Gotta get back on topic though... This is really an effort in futility by the US. I agree that they can't play the long game against China.
 

bit_user

Splendid
Ambassador
It's hard to keep my monologues to myself at times...

Yeah, I'd like to see ...
I hear you.

Where I try to draw the line is on domestic politics, although I think talking trade policy is somewhat on-topic, here.

I want to see a Constitutional Amendment that states that legal constructs do not have Constitutional rights. Once you do that, corporations, PACs, etc. can no longer claim a 1st Amendment right to make campaign donations or fund other forms of political speech, and then their political activities can be regulated. Because money has corrupted US politics more than anything else.

I hope that's not too controversial. From what I can tell, most people seem to agree with the idea that corporations aren't people, and therefore don't have the same inalienable rights.

There's also the disaster that is the national debt...
True. That's one of those looming disasters that won't get taken seriously until it seriously starts to bite us. Then, it's going to be an incredibly painful and long effort to pay it down, while at the same time having to service high interest rates on it (which we've so far been fortunate not to have).

Gotta get back on topic though... This is really an effort in futility by the US. I agree that they can't play the long game against China.
I didn't say it's impossible. It's not easy, nor something the USA can do alone, but not impossible.

No, my question was what current our long game is. And, if anyone cares to answer that, I wonder just how likely they think it'll be successful.

I credit Trump for having the courage to stand up to China. But it also takes a lot of courage to poke a hornets nest with a medium-length stick. Whether that's a good plan for getting rid of a hornets nest is up for debate, but it's almost certain to get you stung. That's the point, though. It might feel good to see him lash out at China, but what we really need isn't that little dopamine hit - it's a workable plan to re-balance the playing field.
 

coolestcarl

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Taiwan says it's an independent nation, China, however, disagrees. IF China takes the same tact with Taiwan as it is doing in Hong Kong, the US WILL NOT intervene - this is their back yard, and when they decide Taiwan is part of mainland China, it will be a done deal. This is not the Chinese under Mao - completely different China.
Actually you are factually incorrect. The reason why Taiwan is still free is because there is an American security guarantee treaty for it which states if China invades Taiwan, then the US is treaty bound to defend them. If it were not for the treaty obligation that the US has with Taiwan, Taiwan would have been absorbed by force into the Peoples Republic of China. The US provides a lot of military hardware to Taiwan for exactly this purpose, in the shape of Harpoon anti ship missiles, Cobra helicopters, F-16s and a various assortment of air to air defences.

An interesting wrinkle in the whole aspect, is that if Taiwan officially declares independence, then the US security guarantee is null and void. So Taiwan gets to be autonomous in its politics, policies, democracy, defence, foreign policy (effectively acting as an independent nation) etc as long as they do not declare independence. As some others on the forum have alluded to, it is far more complex a geopolitical situation than most. So China cannot invade Taiwan (unless Taiwan officially declares independence).
 
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coolestcarl

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I really want to know how the US was able to stop a Taiwanese company from selling to a Chinese company. They must use a ton of IP owned by US companies. Taiwan also known as Republic of China, I guess isn't part of the Peoples Republic of China? Maybe someone knows more about the political status. Do Western counties do everything they can to prevent Taiwan from becoming part of a communist Country?
Taiwan is protected from an invasion by China by a US security guarantee treaty. That is why they have remained free for all these decades. However this treaty is null and void if Taiwan declares independence. Therefore Taiwan gets to act as an independent nation in every aspect (except they cannot officially declare independence ... unless they believe they can defeat a Chinese invasion without US help)
 
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attacus

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I wouldn't worry too much about Chinese silicon. https://www.csis.org/analysis/chinas-pursuit-semiconductor-independence. I know CSIS is biased, but it makes sense. China wants 2 things: planes and silicon. Planes require certain alloys that can withstand the harsh environments of aviation, and semiconductors might be the most sophisticated product on the planet right now.

I know there are articles of China being "a decade away" from closing the gap, but silicon is one place where pouring as much money as possible, even more than Intel in Huawei's case, doesn't solve it. You have to make an environment in which people want to work there. Does someone like Jim Keller want to come work for China?

US sucks at the long game because the 4 year limit leads to political point-scoring. But the US' plan has and continues to be to have China be in the "lower" levels of manufacturing. Testing and making the products, but not designing them. China wants to be designing them, but since they've become wealthy off the current model (too wealthy for "cheap labor"), but not wealthy enough for their domestic products to rival Western ones, they're dangerously close to the middle income trap.

I used to think making everything themselves was the best way for China to gain one up on the US, and domestic industry is important. But what separates now from the Cold War? The Soviets had an Iron Curtain, while China is happy to be intertwined with Western markets. More interdependence and globalisation is a smarter long-game for China.

Best way to become the kings of silicon? Invade Taiwan, annex TSMC. Barring that, intertwine Chinese companies with global standards. Do what the Saudis do, prop up entire Western industries like arms, and you'll never hear about human rights' violations again. Of course, you don't want to be dependent on them for defense, otherwise some grifter might come along asking for protection money some day.

As for the US, perhaps investment into an Indian market through arms and infrastructure would do. I don't think the Indians would give up on Russian arms, due to proximity, historical ties, procurement of replacement parts, and simple logic of having multiple sources. But they're in dire need of infrastructure, and don't currently hate our guts.
 

mrv_co

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Taiwan is protected from an invasion by China by a US security guarantee treaty. That is why they have remained free for all these decades. However this treaty is null and void if Taiwan declares independence. Therefore Taiwan gets to act as an independent nation in every aspect (except they cannot officially declare independence ... unless they believe they can defeat a Chinese invasion without US help)
China (PRC) is playing their long game and a part of that includes repatriating Taiwan (ROC). It happened in Tibet and is happening now in Hong Kong. Considering what is happening in HK, any diplomatic solution that would satisfy China (which has been to date, the 'One-China Policy') is probably out of the question at this point. All the military and diplomatic activity in the Asia-Pacific theater, both east and west (N.K. being part distraction, part proxy for both sides), is more or less centered around the possibility (if not downright inevitability) of a direct military conflict over Taiwan at some point in the future.
 

Shadowclash10

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Basic freedoms and rights.

If you lived in China and the town bosses decided to put a factory or a condo building where you lived, you'd have no recourse. Protest, and they might throw you in jail. Their legal system is a joke, with defense lawyers themselves being persecuted for even trying to uphold the laws on the books.

Their internet is monitored and censored. Speaking out too many times will land you in jail, without even a public trial. And face recognition is everywhere.

They've had numerous food contamination scandals and lack the worker and environmental protections you enjoy.

And if they don't like your religion and ethnicity, you might be subject to forced sterilization and being locked up in a re-education camp.

Let's say fortune smiles on you and you're a successful businessman, in China. You have to pay to play, but if the political allies you choose fall out of favor, you could get prosecuted for it.

I respect China as an adversary, but I sure wouldn't want to live there. It's probably the closest thing to a real-world 1984, although at least the educated city dwellers seem to have a decent standard of living.


It sure wasn't, 10 years ago, when they had to undergo years of painful austerity to bail out their banks. Everywhere has its problems, some bigger than others. And the nicer the country, the harder it usually is to move there.

Instead of entertaining notions of emigrating that you're not really serious about, I would channel that energy into what little things you can do to make your current home a little better. The problems are big, but enough people pushing in the right directions can make real change.
I agree. Sure, there are many things that nnoy me about living in the US, but compared to China? We have problems ofc: racism, stupid governments sometimes, terrorist attacks, etc. but then we also have a lot of rights people in most countries and especially China don't have. 95%+ of the time we have free dom of speech, religion, etc. Sure the FBI and the police can be jerks, and monitor communties that they think are "prone to creating terrorism" (lol), but compared to China, where the gov has you under their thumb 24/7, they almost completely control the Internet, etc.
 
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Shadowclash10

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I hear you.

Where I try to draw the line is on domestic politics, although I think talking trade policy is somewhat on-topic, here.

I want to see a Constitutional Amendment that states that legal constructs do not have Constitutional rights. Once you do that, corporations, PACs, etc. can no longer claim a 1st Amendment right to make campaign donations or fund other forms of political speech, and then their political activities can be regulated. Because money has corrupted US politics more than anything else.

I hope that's not too controversial. From what I can tell, most people seem to agree with the idea that corporations aren't people, and therefore don't have the same inalienable rights.


True. That's one of those looming disasters that won't get taken seriously until it seriously starts to bite us. Then, it's going to be an incredibly painful and long effort to pay it down, while at the same time having to service high interest rates on it (which we've so far been fortunate not to have).


I didn't say it's impossible. It's not easy, nor something the USA can do alone, but not impossible.

No, my question was what current our long game is. And, if anyone cares to answer that, I wonder just how likely they think it'll be successful.

I credit Trump for having the courage to stand up to China. But it also takes a lot of courage to poke a hornets nest with a medium-length stick. Whether that's a good plan for getting rid of a hornets nest is up for debate, but it's almost certain to get you stung. That's the point, though. It might feel good to see him lash out at China, but what we really need isn't that little dopamine hit - it's a workable plan to re-balance the playing field.
I agree on everything except for crediting Trump. What he did was not really a smart move. What benefit do you get out of poking the hornet's nest? Nothing, except getting the hornets riled up. But whatever. The big problem is that China has some advantages - one of them being that because of their system of government (I am NOT praising them here tho), they can make lots of change and carry out policies to the end. Here, whether or not you agree with Trump, if someone else takes over, they will undo his "progress", and start another path to figure out what to do about China. And of course, China is trying to become more independent of us, and take over world media - for example, Tencent, a giant Chinese video games corp has been buying up lots of development studios, IPs, shares in dev companies, etc.
 

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