News US AI Diffusion Policy may harm Nvidia's sales — most of the chipmaker's AI GPUs are affected

[Admin]

If the new U.S. export rules become effective, they will affect sales of all Nvidia GPUs to most countries.

US AI Diffusion Policy may harm Nvidia's sales — most of the chipmaker's AI GPUs are affected : Read more

 

[bit_user]

Nvidia seems really nervous about their stock price, especially with the litany of problems they've encountered with their Blackwell datacenter GPUs.

https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-i...recasts-for-2025-prediction-contrasts-ai-boom
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Also:

NVIDIA's Blackwell AI Servers Faced With Overheating & Glitching Issues; Major Customers, Including Microsoft & Google, Start Cutting Down Orders

NVIDIA's Blackwell AI servers are facing a supply chain bottleneck as Team Green fails to resolve the overheating and architectural flaws.

wccftech.com

If you restrict their exports, on top of all that, their stock price seems especially untenable.

 

[setx]

The solution looks pretty simple: become non-American company. If they move to Europe they can probably secure a nice deal with government and no restrictions.

 

[bit_user]

The solution looks pretty simple: become non-American company. If they move to Europe they can probably secure a nice deal with government and no restrictions.

Arm isn't a US company, but was subject to export controls back in 2019 (?) that restricted its ability to work with Huawei. That's because it has a lot of US-based IP, over which the US government has ultimate sovereignty. In the case of Nvidia, an even greater proportion of their IP is US-based.

So, we'll have to see how serious the new administration is about continuing these policies, but I think they have the tools and already demonstrated a willingness to use them.

 

[JTWrenn]

Arm isn't a US company, but was subject to export controls back in 2019 (?) that restricted its ability to work with Huawei. That's because it has a lot of US-based IP, over which the US government has ultimate sovereignty. In the case of Nvidia, an even greater proportion of their IP is US-based.

So, we'll have to see how serious the new administration is about continuing these policies, but I think they have the tools and already demonstrated a willingness to use them.

It doesn't mean they won't start to go that way if we keep doing this. I just don't see the long term plan of it all. To me this is just massively incentivizing them moving the product to their shores via IP theft (which they do anyway when they can). It's almost like we watched what they did to us over the last 50 years and thought...let's do the opposite and not sell them things, I mean what could go wrong?

This is a short term idea for a long term problem. It is likely something we should instead be using tariffs to fight that are earmarked for chip production capacity in the USA more than full on restrictions. I think we are shooting our long term foot to make our short term foot look like it is doing something.

 

[bit_user]

This is a short term idea for a long term problem.

There are multiple concerns the US has about China and multiple things it's doing about them, but we've been told the one around blocking export of AI & chip-making is about denying its military of advanced technologies.

Yes, long-term problems need a long-term strategy and it's not clear to me what that is (or if one even exists). I'm not trying to take a position on that - just attempting to clarify what little I can about the facts.

 

[JTWrenn]

There are multiple concerns the US has about China and multiple things it's doing about them, but we've been told the one around blocking export of AI & chip-making is about denying its military of advanced technologies.

Yes, long-term problems need a long-term strategy and it's not clear to me what that is (or if one even exists). I'm not trying to take a position on that - just attempting to clarify what little I can about the facts.

No need on the clarification I am up on a lot of that. Just don't see a long term plan at all in this that makes real sense. Seems like politicians doing things now so they can say they did a thing now to me.