News US won't restrict exports of 'mature chips' to China — processors using 28nm or older tech will be free from sanctions

[Admin]

A Department of Commerce official stated that sanctions on China wouldn't extend to "mature chips or legacy chips."

US won't restrict exports of 'mature chips' to China — processors using 28nm or older tech will be free from sanctions : Read more

 

[phead128]

For reference, the most advanced fighter jet in the world, the stealthy F-35 is powered by 90nm nodes.

So the whole premise of pre-empting China military modernization by letting 28nm and larger, but not 14nm and smaller is a complete misdirection. You can field really advanced fighter jets with 90nm technology.

 

[Notton]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought the point of restricting node size was to prevent China from acquiring better super computers for AI.

Like cyber warfare stuff, rather than projectiles.

 

[Co BIY]

Might see some interesting large chips developed at 28nm.

Mature nodes are economically the sweet spot on per transistor cost so there are possibilities here. Backporting is also a possibility.

On the cynical side this also undercuts local firms having a base market in mature nodes from which to finance development of the targeted advanced tech.

 

[phead128]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought the point of restricting node size was to prevent China from acquiring better super computers for AI.

Like cyber warfare stuff, rather than projectiles.

Well Huawei's 910B is equivalent in performance to Nvidia's A100, at a fraction of the cost. H100's are more powerful than 910Bs, but we'll see what Huawei releases next now that it has 7nm/5nm capabilities. The train to restrict China's tech progress is long past.

 

[kwohlt]

Well Huawei's 910B is equivalent in performance to Nvidia's A100, at a fraction of the cost. H100's are more powerful than 910Bs, but we'll see what Huawei releases next now that it has 7nm/5nm capabilities. The train to restrict China's tech progress is long past.

SMIC is reliant on stockpiled old AMSL DUV machines from before sanctions.


There's only so many patterns you can do before yields halt further progress. It's not wise to underestimate China's tech sector, but you seem to be underestimating the future issues their fab industry is going to have with little to no EUV access.

As a result of current lack-of-access to EUV, SMIC's 7nm is already estimated to be 50% more expensive than TSMC N7 with 1/3 the yield - and this gap will only widen with each successive node

 

[phead128]

SMIC is reliant on stockpiled old AMSL DUV machines from before sanctions.

There's only so many patterns you can do before yields halt further progress. It's not wise to underestimate China's tech sector, but you seem to be underestimating the future issues their fab industry is going to have with little to no EUV access.

As a result of current lack-of-access to EUV, SMIC's 7nm is already estimated to be 50% more expensive than TSMC N7 with 1/3 the yield - and this gap will only widen with each successive node

I read that SMIC's 7nm is +70% yields based on Dylan Patel and Paul Triolo.

 

[DalaiLamar]

It will hardly slow down China's progress to autarky in semi.

 

[Joseph_138]

Considering how much electronics are made in China, somehow, I think getting around this ban won't be too difficult.

 

[USAFRet]

For reference, the most advanced fighter jet in the world, the stealthy F-35 is powered by 90nm nodes.

So the whole premise of pre-empting China military modernization by letting 28nm and larger, but not 14nm and smaller is a complete misdirection. You can field really advanced fighter jets with 90nm technology.

And the design standards for the F-35 were started 30 years ago.

This is to slow future development.

 

[schwaggins]

This is what happens when old dinosaurs run the country it doesn't make any logical sense

 

[Pei-chen]

Thanks to past US sanctions China have a host of homegrown industries that’s world leading and entirely independent of US tech. Not sure why the US haven’t learned and still think more sanctions will work

 

[PEnns]

And the design standards for the F-35 were started 30 years ago.

This is to slow future development.

And yet it is still the most advanced fighter jet anywhere!

 

[USAFRet]

And yet it is still the most advanced fighter jet anywhere!

Very true.
It takes a looong time to develop these things.

 

[nookoool]

SMIC is reliant on stockpiled old AMSL DUV machines from before sanctions.


There's only so many patterns you can do before yields halt further progress. It's not wise to underestimate China's tech sector, but you seem to be underestimating the future issues their fab industry is going to have with little to no EUV access.

As a result of current lack-of-access to EUV, SMIC's 7nm is already estimated to be 50% more expensive than TSMC N7 with 1/3 the yield - and this gap will only widen with each successive node

Knowing that they are stuck on 7nm and 5nm with DUV, one can assume they are likely pouring more into research into improving those processes than like TSMC which had the option of moving with EUV. Other alternative is also improving battery tech or material design for cooling.

Huawei is premium brand like Apple so they can overcharge or reduce profit margins for the short term. The government is also dumping subsidies into them as well.

 

[kwohlt]

Knowing that they are stuck on 7nm and 5nm with DUV, one can assume they are likely pouring more into research into improving those processes than like TSMC which had the option of moving with EUV. Other alternative is also improving battery tech or material design for cooling.

Huawei is premium brand like Apple so they can overcharge or reduce profit margins for the short term. The government is also dumping subsidies into them as well.

Right - Even if China eventually developed their own domestic EUV machines and processes, and uses them to improve yields at 5nm and to push past 5nm-class nodes, the sanctions in this case still delayed this advancement and added significant cost in the process as well.

Nobody is saying that it is impossible to China to progress - but if sanctions delay their progress by 3 - 5 years and increase their costs and require the government to divert more funds to subsidies (away from other projects they could've otherwise spent the money on), then the sanctions have absolutely achieved their desired effect.

it's really a question of comparison:
Scenario A: China has no sanctions. Can fully purchase ASML machines and has full access to western PDKs, design tooling, and machinery

Scenario B: Sanctions cause China's node development hits a wall until they can first reproduce all of these industries that non-Chinese markets already benefit from.

In Scenario B, the Sanctions delayed Chinese progress and widened the gap between them and other countries - thus succeeding in their goal.

 

[phead128]

And the design standards for the F-35 were started 30 years ago.

This is to slow future development.

No, F-35's PowerPC G5 (90nm nodes) was installed in 2004-2011, so hardly 30 year old tech.

Basically, China is capable of 5nm, and the bleeding edge is currently 3nm. So the military difference is negligible, not even worth the effort of these sanctions.

 

[USAFRet]

No, F-35's PowerPC G5 (90nm nodes) was installed in 2004-2011, so hardly 30 year old tech.

Basically, China is capable of 5nm, and the bleeding edge is currently 3nm. So the military difference is negligible, not even worth the effort of these sanctions.

I said "started".
Yes, there have been changes along the way.

 

[phead128]

I said "started".
Yes, there have been changes along the way.

Early F-35 used PowerPC G3 cards at 200-130nm.