[SOLVED] What is causing the global GPU shortage?

[fordongreeman]

What is causing the global GPU shortage?

When will availability return to normal?

 

[jasonf2]

The answer to your question is basic supply and demand economics but it has a number of facets that make the availability question almost impossible to answer. There are others in this forum that will be able to fill this out better but let me see if I can get close.

Basically there are only a handful of companies that actually make high end CPU\GPU chips on the latest processes. For our basic discussion here they are Intel, TSMC and Samsung. Intel mainly only produces chips for itself and isn't a discrete GPU player. So that leaves TSMC and Samsung. While neither directly designs GPUs they contract build chips based on AMD and NVidia designs for AMD and Nvidia. Fabs are based on process nodes which are typically designated by die size. So when you hear about a 7nm chip that is the transistor size. These nodes are flexible and CPU and GPUs can be built in the same fab. Intel, while not into GPUs (yet) had some major issues getting past its 14nm process node that has allowed TSMC to take a pretty major manufacturing process lead. AMD is fabless (has others manufacture their chips for them) and because of this has been able to design chips based on TSMC manufacturing that are outperforming Intel, something that hasn't happened in a long time. This has increased AMD market share in the HEDT market on CPUs. This increase in AMD demand means more chips demanded on TSMC fabs.
Second up we are dealing with a gaming console generation turnover right now. So while you may see PS5 and Xbox one series x what they both really are are AMD CPU/integrated GPU X86 computers with chips produced through TSMC fabs.
Third up is the Nvidia ampere architecture itself. Call it what you will but the performance bump in this generation is huge in contrast with the last couple. Everyone wants one, no one can get them and scalpers with bots are wiping out inventory to sell on ebay at huge margin.
Fourth up is covid. Suddenly everyone was working remotely from home and there was a huge hardware demand surge to make this happen.
Fifth is a production equipment issue. There is basically only one or two companies in the world that have the IP to supply the EULV equipment to actually make the chips at the best process nodes and they are maxed. So starting up new fabs are ridiculously expensive (tens of billions of dollars) and take time and the equipment is on backorder.

I know I am still missing something here but until most of these points catch up the whole chip market is going to continue to have shortage issues. The biggest right now unfortunately is probably the gaming console backlog, which will hopefully right itself within the year, but who knows.

Update: I also forgot the crypto mess. The for profit sector is grabbing high end GPUs as fast as they are available right now too. (Thanks AdamOne).

 

[Adam0ne]

That does sum it up right. All those factors together causes shortage and price. Plus the crypto mining sector does add up big to the equation too.

We all do hope it normalizes soon. But I believe thats still a bit far out. They're enjoying record sales revenues.

 

[David0ne86]

Short answer? A single damn silicon factory (atleast when it comes to tech) for an almost 8 billion population planet.

When will it normalize? People say 2022. Im not so optimistic. I'd be colored impressed to see prices normalization if they happen anytime by the end of said year. The real question is: now that they saw people are willing to pay ludicrous amount of money for a gpu, will they ever go back producing good price to performance ratio components? Or they'll just get even greedier? I mean, take the refreshed TI series coming out next week. People are already leaking (and i can tell you that they're true, i have a friend working as a distributor here in my hometown, drako.it look it up) and AT DISTRIBUTOR prices (so not even retailer, basically what the AiB are selling them the card for) it's 2100 eu for a 3080ti and 1900eu for a 3070ti. So yeah, good luck with that. Pretty much we're about to pay 23/2400 eu for a 3080TI and 20/2100 for a 3070ti. Don't believe me? Come here by next week and let's have a chat about it.

 

[jasonf2]

Really crypto and console right now are probably your biggest issues. Console will catch up, even if it takes a while. Crypto is kind of an unknown because price increase driven by speculation drives mining. So mining itself has been a pretty up down thing based on what the actual currency is doing and how the hash works. If crypto values level off mining tapers off due to increased difficulty and electricity price. If crypto value shrinks significantly mining collapses. If crypto faces major legal roadblocks (which it will increasingly) mining will taper. So while it is hot today one major legislative or regulatory pen stroke could curtail the whole thing. And while crypto has its own competitive issues with existing state currencies, mining itself is an environmental disaster (if you believe in global warming). Due to how most electricity is produced the carbon footprint of mining is bigger than the electrical output of some countries and won't likely avoid environmental legislation all on its own on the global scale.

 

[Crosslhs82x2]

There is still other factors in play also, such as Taiwan is in a drought and having to truck in water for their manufacturing processes and still dealing with raw materials shortages that have been reported here on TH articles.

People that do get there GPU's at near normal prices should feel lucky and those of us that Won't pay over Msrp are the smart 1's that will suffer for along time to come.

For the 1's that are paying these ridiculous prices can be said to have more money then Brains.

I wish the Gpu manufacturer's would somehow put a lockdown in a gpu bios/software @ point of purchase that would have to be unlocked within a certain amount of time to get the card's full potential or it is rendered to more or less only good enough to run a monitor, so no gaming ,no mining potential.
By doing so could stop most of the scalping that is going on because they wouldn't be able to sell that card fast enough before the registration ends rendering that card to a desktop only card.

Anyone here that has the credentials with Gpu manufacturers could help this out.

Please use this idea as a basic stepping stone to help us all out, and believe me It Would Be Greatly Appreciated!!!!!!!!!!

 

[hotaru.hino]

I wish the Gpu manufacturer's would somehow put a lockdown in a gpu bios/software @ point of purchase that would have to be unlocked within a certain amount of time to get the card's full potential or it is rendered to more or less only good enough to run a monitor, so no gaming ,no mining potential.
By doing so could stop most of the scalping that is going on because they wouldn't be able to sell that card fast enough before the registration ends rendering that card to a desktop only card.

Having a "shelf life" on graphics cards, or just any hardware, isn't a good idea. Even if the "shelf life" is indefinite, requiring online activation of hardware isn't going to go well with people.

 

[jasonf2]

There is still other factors in play also, such as Taiwan is in a drought and having to truck in water for their manufacturing processes and still dealing with raw materials shortages that have been reported here on TH articles.

People that do get there GPU's at near normal prices should feel lucky and those of us that Won't pay over Msrp are the smart 1's that will suffer for along time to come.

For the 1's that are paying these ridiculous prices can be said to have more money then Brains.

I wish the Gpu manufacturer's would somehow put a lockdown in a gpu bios/software @ point of purchase that would have to be unlocked within a certain amount of time to get the card's full potential or it is rendered to more or less only good enough to run a monitor, so no gaming ,no mining potential.
By doing so could stop most of the scalping that is going on because they wouldn't be able to sell that card fast enough before the registration ends rendering that card to a desktop only card.

Anyone here that has the credentials with Gpu manufacturers could help this out.

Please use this idea as a basic stepping stone to help us all out, and believe me It Would Be Greatly Appreciated!!!!!!!!!!

Believe it or not they have actually tried hardware tricks to do something similar to this against mining, except the attempt is simply to restrict performance when the card is run in a detected mining situation. The only result has been relatively ingenious hacks to bypass the detection mechanisms. There is too much money in play here with very smart people for workarounds not to happen. From a technical perspective the ideal of inventory with a self destruct built in would be a potential nightmare though and in my opinion a terrible ideal for too many reasons to list here.

 

[hotaru.hino]

To put it in another way, think of all the ways game companies put in anti-piracy measures. Now replace "piracy" with "miner."

If people are determined enough to want to do something, they'll find a way to do it.

 

[lvt]

What is causing the global GPU shortage?

Greedy people.

 

[Crosslhs82x2]

Not talking a self destuct but a registration process say to fully unlock the card to it full potential.

I have seen people's add's listing new cards while posting a picture of the card in their hands. So to me that card is now used and just like a new car driven off the lot it just lost value in my opinion.
So for who knows how long I will refuse to pay over Msrp and use my gtx1070 ti till it dies first.

 

[jasonf2]

Not talking a self destuct but a registration process say to fully unlock the card to it full potential.

I have seen people's add's listing new cards while posting a picture of the card in their hands. So to me that card is now used and just like a new car driven off the lot it just lost value in my opinion.
So for who knows how long I will refuse to pay over Msrp and use my gtx1070 ti till it dies first.

To do something like this would require either a software unlock or a firmware update. Either are hackable and all you end up with is the legitimate end user having to jump through registration hoops, near impossibility to sell your computer later on (or to transfer ownership of cards) and a black hat app available that unlocks the card anyways. There are far too many legitimate end use situations that would be harmed by this type of setup to justify the means.

 

[Crosslhs82x2]

I quess all we can do is live with the situation as it stands as nobody is trying to stop the scalping.
There is always going to be those that agree and those that are opposed to change.

 

[jasonf2]

I quess all we can do is live with the situation as it stands as nobody is trying to stop the scalping.
There is always going to be those that agree and those that are opposed to change.

It isn't so much of a philosophical difference that something needs done. There is just no real motivation for the industry to stop the practice and the means that they could design into the devices ultimately has consequences that hurt the end consumer and increase their costs with a loss in profit. Personally I think that the practice of scalping itself should be made illegal and the companies that facilitate it should be held accountable for the action. So don't just fine the scalper, but fine the Ebays and Amazons that facilitate the transactions themselves. If such a move were put into place I guarantee you a heavily fine motivated Amazon or Ebay would be able to stop the lions share of scalping in a week. As it sits right now though they are making a fortune in the transactions. So with no legal consequence that outweigh the gains we can complain about the ethical issues all we want but the behavior will continue to be rewarded. As far as the mining goes again there are huge environmental issues that create ethical problems with the practice. But there is certainly nothing illegal about utilizing a mining rig. Until there is miners will eat up resources if there is a profit to be made.

 

[Crosslhs82x2]

I can agree to that but the only problem is getting politicians to does something that wouldn't line the pockets for us.
Have A Great Holiday Weekend.!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Crosslhs82x2]

It should have been line their pockets.
But I think you got it anyway Lol.
Anyways Have A Great Holiday Weekend Everyone!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[animekenji]

I was lucky enough to be able to buy a used Asus G11CD with a GTX 1080FE installed right before all the GPU pricing madness happened. I was also able to buy a GTX 970 for a reasonable price to put into one of my Macs. Right after I did that, the prices exploded. The two video cards alone are worth about $800 more than I paid for the PC and the GTX 970 card. I could sell them for a profit now, but what would I replace them with? I'd be without a computer if I did that. People are buying new systems now just to take the video cards out of them, either to upgrade their existing PC's, or to scalp for a profit, for the simple reason that system builders usually get them before retail does. They take the video cards out of the systems, then sell the bones on ebay. This might be a good time to upgrade from your older CPU's, with all the computers without video cards being sold now. I am waiting on an i5-10400 system as an upgrade to my i7 6700. I haven't had the i7 6700 for very long, but if these production delays continue, they might start affecting motherboard components, too, and then you won't even be able to upgrade to a CPU on a newer socket, either, if motherboard production grinds to a halt.

 

[Crosslhs82x2]

I'm just glad I purchased my 13yr old his Xmas in Aug last yr a Gigabyte Rtx 2070 Super Oc 3x fan for $499.99 because now that card is going for upto $1700.00.

I've been on the Evga list since 12-3 for a Rtx 3060 ti Ftw3 Ultra and it seens like SNAILS are blowing my doors off. LOL

Micro Center here in Denver has been getting some cards in but they are usually gone by the end of the day and it's pretty much the days I'm out of town and they will not let you put even 1 in reserve status or purchase online.

So for the time being my son has the better system in the Apartment.

 

[fordongreeman]

Am I going to have to wait 5+ years to be able to buy another GPU readily available and at MSRP?

 

[kurdtnz]

When all this is 'over' and they are able to start mass producing cards and supply finally starts catching up with demand, does it mean you will only be able to buy the newest model gpu's because they will only be producing them? I mean, the beginner/mid tier cards (classically cheaper) like the rx 570/580/590 or 2060/2070, nvidea 1060/1070/1080 etc will never be in production again?

 

[David0ne86]

Those are out of production already. The only refurbish they're doing are the 1060 and the 2060 (massively overpricing them too ofc). All the other cards you've mentioned are already out of production. Only chance to get those is by second hand which i would genuinely discourage people from doing so (unless it's necessary, ie their card broke) because that 1000 gen and the 500 gen is the first mining boom gen, and the vast majority will be extremely used.

 

[animekenji]

Believe it or not they have actually tried hardware tricks to do something similar to this against mining, except the attempt is simply to restrict performance when the card is run in a detected mining situation. The only result has been relatively ingenious hacks to bypass the detection mechanisms. There is too much money in play here with very smart people for workarounds not to happen. From a technical perspective the ideal of inventory with a self destruct built in would be a potential nightmare though and in my opinion a terrible ideal for too many reasons to list here.

Jay, from Jay's 2 Cents, made the observation recently that the number of people out there who want to use video cards as a tool that makes them money, far outnumber the engineers that nVidia can hire to try to stop them. They have the collective resources to overwhelm nVidia's protections with brute force attacks. Millions of miners vs maybe a hundred, and probably not even that many, nVidia engineers? It's like a zergling rush. No matter how good those engineers are, they are going to be taken down by overwhelming numbers.

 

[Nichabell]

COVID cause a drop in supply of resources needed to make GPUs (decreased supply)
COVID caused a drop in workers needed to make GPUs (decreased supply)
Both of these will take years for the supply chain to catch up with backlogs

GPUs made a generational leap at a price that provided value to the customer (increased demand)
COVID caused more people to stay at home and play video games (increased demand)

Crypto drove the prices to insane highs (but are not the cause of the shortage) because the cards basically print money so buying a 1060 for example $100 has a 3 month ROI, 200 has a 6 month ROI 300 has a 9 month ROI. Anything with a 5 year RIO is generally a good investment. cost of the card has no significance to them because they will most likely sell if for what they paid for it or close. And in the current market they may even be able to sell if for more then they paid.

Finally people whos GPUs have died have to buy anything they can afford which drives up the prices of cards that Miners think are unprofitable. So bad cards worth 20 are selling for 100 and ewaste is selling for 20 dollars