When will xp finally be a minority?

What month will DX10 OS surpass xp?

  • Nov

    Votes: 3 12.5%
  • Dec

    Votes: 3 12.5%
  • Jan

    Votes: 2 8.3%
  • Feb

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Mar

    Votes: 1 4.2%
  • April

    Votes: 4 16.7%
  • It never will, DX9 forever!!!

    Votes: 11 45.8%

  • Total voters
Its getting close


Sep 14, 2005
Are we confused today? You open a thread about OS's
"When will xp finally be a minority?"
then you post a poll only dealing with graphics API's. Yes I think we are confused. (Well, I am, for sure...)

OK, enough stick. Your graph seems to blend all versions of x32 and x64 into two lines. Do you have enough data to do 5.x.x32 and x64 as well as 6.x x32 and 64? Just a suggestion...
Most of us want xp to die, with DX9 right alomg with it. As long as it holds a large portion of the market, devs will just keep pumping out old DX versions, which is somewhat limited, and cant of course do DX10,10.1 or 11


Aug 27, 2006
The only trouble that I could see with the Steam survey is that they could only account for some % of computer users.

Also the problem with XP is that it still works for most people. The adoption rate would increase with new PCs rather than those who would upgrade. Me thinks by 2011 Win XP would start to lose a lot of ground, but still not small enough that you'd want to ignore when you are making games. Probably by 2012 or 2013 then XP could be in the same position as IE6 is in now.


Jul 16, 2009
XP will die about 3 years after the release of windows 7 when it gets a price drop. Or A couple years after MS removes support for XP.
I really do think that Dirt 2 is going to play a big part in how this developes.
Codemasters is a public company and as such would have needed a pretty strong argument to put a launch off for two months, the argument they gave was "because we are going to to use DX11"
This move has cost them money in the short term but has also put them firmly in the spotlight regarding DX11. Now the thing is if the game comes out and is nothing to write home about they are going to look pretty stupid.
On the other hand if the game comes out and is jaw droppingly awsome both in game play and visuals due to the DX11 recode then Codemasters are laughing all the way to the bank.
The main point for me though would be that they would have proved how easy DX11 recoding is, two months for a recode and Q&A.
Now im assuming here that Dirt 2 will still be DX9 compatable ? So if it comes out and runs well on DX9 but runs well on DX11 and looks awsome there is only one way gamers are going to want to play it.
For these reasons i thing Dirt 2 and its sucess or not will play a huge part in how long DX9 has left. If it turns out to be another crisis then we will be in for the long hall as Gamer has said IMHO.

The majority of individuals that monitor/read/post in this forum are in to demanding games. That is not a majority of PC users. I know of no one at work (EEs and PhDs) that are into games including myself. At work, they are stuck with XP Pro until NASA Langley upgrades. SC(&% XP, I still maintain 3 Lab Computers (P-90s) running win 3.11. These 3 computer control a Satellite instrument and to upgrade them is probably in the => $100K (This includes software development).

Myself I have migrated to mainly Win 7 (Dual boot to vista on this computer). I've pulled my XP disk and put in closet.

My wife represent a good # of users - internet, email, some programs (Word. bowling secretary, embroidery) and "low end games" that will run on a 5 yr old computers just fine. Her views on changing/upgrading her XP coincides with my guns - YOU will have to pry them from my cold, dead. Hands. - or in her case when she has to get a new computer (One of my newer hand-me-downs) AND then she will probably force me to re-install XP.


Aug 21, 2009
Well i'm going to be hopping straight to 7 from XP when it's released and i think many other people will also because of the publicity it's gathering. Of course there is always people who aren't prepared to pay for it.
You know my opinion already from other posts.

If you mean the overall PC based community, not a chance it happens during the time line your poll covers.

If you are talking about the gaming community it might happen during the time your poll covers, but I doubt it.

The big thing about Win 7 is going to be that it wipes vista out (maybe by the end of the year) but there are alot of single core XP machines that will never switch, even amongst the gaming community. Wiping vista out doesn't help your poll. WoW and all those cheezy asian grind games are not due for a DX 11 update for a couple years.


Sep 14, 2005

Hmmm... Guess I wasn't clear. There are 5.xxx 32 bit versions, and 64 bit versions. There are 6.xxx 32 bit versions and 64 bit versions.

I did, however, admit to being confused. Working all night then waiting all day for a delivery will do that, at least to me.

I understand what you are saying but i doubt that the people you are talking about are counted in any dermagraphic used by the industry. I would suspect rightly or wrongly they are treated the same way you would a tax write off. As far as the industry are concerned these machines may as well not exist. The Graph JD is using is pretty specific to people in the gaming comunity as its from a company who supply a gaming service.
Machines that dont/wont get upgraded over the whole of there life time due to them having a very specific usage are machines where there is no market for software or additional hardware sales which is another reason i would think they are considered outside the loop as far as this kind of thing is concerned.
Just my opinion but there you go.



Your stats excude Windows 7. I suspect there are a fair number already running on the beta. Are you sure XP is not already in the minority today?

But bottom line - who cares. The changes in such things as DX9 dying will happen when they happen. But if that is your primary concern - why not ask that question directly instead of the XP one? Further - what is the significance of XP being in the minority to changing DX9? What if it is in the minority but still the largest of the three - XP, Vista, and 7? How does Apple and Linux figure in?

The problem is the utter disbeleif of people that its possable that things might work differantly this time.
Personally i dont really think that XP is the key to this, i really think that its a lot more political this time. The inclusion of the Compute shader is a big step in the right direction to coding without a DX anything. For that reason amongst others i think the devs will be more willing to code for DX11 sooner than would have been considered normal or usual to the history of DX. I also think that there will be a lot of encouragement from the big players here with MS possably helping out and obviously Intel will want things to go in this direction also.
just suposition on my part but there you go.




It will take a while beyond the time on the list. The BAD economy will not help Win-7. Big corporate accounts have mostly settled down on XP and are not in a hurry to start another major expense to migrate from XP to Win-7.

There is less appetite for corporate expenses for new OS. IT personnel are being let go to save money.

Common users running on XP will have very little insentive to switch to another OS. For surfing the net? Not good enough to spend the money.

Enthusiast will plunge into Win-7....We are the probing grounds for new stuff. It will be quick for Enthusiast community...8 months to a year.

Microsoft needs to provide a major promo or discount to VISTA USERS to reduce the pain in the pocket. That should help Win-7 and Win-7 is the solution to convince users to do away with XP.

Well I still use XP Pro and I think it is great....

Last time I used Vista I had a very hard time with compatability issues, it got to the point that I re-installed XP and since then everything has been butter......

Waiting on Win 7 to drop and then I guess i will upgrade.....


I agree - I think there is little reason to upgrade from XP to Vista or Win 7 - but no reason not to get it on a new PC.

Business users will want to try to keep most users on the same operating system rather than supporting two different ones - and licensing two different systems. And neither Vista nor Win 7 provide a significant enought reason to upgrade.

Such will be the model for OS upgrades for the forseeable future.

So MS responds to he resistance in the market by having different XP support cutoff dates for business (later because they have the power to resist and MS needs to keep them happy) and other consumer users (earlier because we have no power and MS wants to soak us for all it can).

Please hurry LINUX - we need you in the mainstream.