Discussion Worst-case - chip shortage to last till 2023

coolraveen

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May 26, 2020
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If that really happens then I don't need to upgrade my GTX 1650 super, as developers will work with what's on the table, according to steam more than 60 percent still use 1060.
 

Eximo

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Developer's also have the PS5 and XBox to cater to, so that should freeze game requirements at that level for the next few years. Until they offer the next gen consoles that support 8K or Ray tracing.

Should probably get around to selling my GTX980s.
 

coolraveen

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May 26, 2020
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Developer's also have the PS5 and XBox to cater to, so that should freeze game requirements at that level for the next few years. Until they offer the next gen consoles that support 8K or Ray tracing.

Should probably get around to selling my GTX980s.
Yes PS5 and xbox 4k is also there, now with limited supply of the RTX 3000 series and no new 1080p cards released as of now, the status quo will remain, that will mainly benifit us the mid range 1080p/ 1440p GPU owners.
 

coolraveen

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May 26, 2020
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/dances with 4 year old 1080Ti
Well, it seems to be aging better than the GTX 680 I previously ran 5 years on...

Pascal. LIVES. ON!
I would even upgrade my 1650 super to your 1080ti if needed. If someone sells it to me offcourse. It still gives a strong 150fps in 1080p in warzone which I play, and will not bottleneck my 3600 unlike the latest rtx 3000 series.
 

Phaaze88

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I would even upgrade my 1650 super to your 1080ti if needed. If someone sells it to me offcourse. It still gives a strong 150fps in 1080p in warzone which I play, and will not bottleneck my 3600 unlike the latest rtx 3000 series.
Warzone should be a cpu frequency and ram(high frequency, low timings) endeavor. In a game like that, I figured people were pushing for the highest MINIMUM fps possible.
The gpu doesn't affect that value nearly as much as those 2 do - well, that goes for most of those shooter titles.


But anyway, I don't have any spare gpus. I'm trying to get a 3080, but no luck yet.
Ok, I'm not really trying, it's very half-assed:
-EVGA queue for 3080 FTW3 Hybrid since Jan 8th. I see they pushed back the price deadline from April 16 to May 14. Either way, when the date comes, I'm dropping out; it's not worth 900USD to me.
If I DIY hybrid a 3080 for $900 total, sure. Pre-assembled? Hahah, no!

-Best Buy has been having 'drops' every 2-3 weeks. Official retailer of Founder's Edition, which are the ONLY models than can be purchased at Nvidia's MSRP. There were 3 'waves' yesterday, but I was just too slow.
That's all I'm trying for.
 
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I haven't forgotten that - that was dang lucky.
It definitely was.

The 12GBs of VRAM should ensure that it will just slowly fade in performance instead of dropping off a cliff. MSI afterburner can display actual 'used' VRAM (not allocated) once you enable the GPU.dll monitoring. Horizon Zero Dawn (my new obsession) gets to 9.6GBs used with all settings maxxed at 1440p.
 

Phaaze88

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I also feel like this shortage is another example of why monopolies are bad - for us.
Would this have been as bad or lasted as long if there were 2 other semiconductor manufacturers, for example?

The 12GBs of VRAM should ensure that it will just slowly fade in performance instead of dropping off a cliff. MSI afterburner can display actual 'used' VRAM (not allocated) once you enable the GPU.dll monitoring. Horizon Zero Dawn (my new obsession) gets to 9.6GBs used with all settings maxxed at 1440p.
I need to check that game out - I like me some RPGs - but I've already got like 4-5 games in my library I've yet to start on... UGH.
 

Eximo

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10 would probably do. But it takes a long time to build the facilities, build the equipment, set it up, test, and ramp up to production. Most of the proposed solutions won't happen for several years.

Short term it is just going to be prioritization, and/or sticking to older process nodes for a while rather than re-tooling for the next thing. Let the new facilities do that.
 

InvalidError

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even if there is 10 more semiconductor company on TSMC caliber we will still going to see shortages.
Not really. By most estimates, demand is only about 30% ahead of current supply, so the world only needs maybe one TSMC worth of extra capacity and it will get a good chunk of it in 2023 from the three usual suspects' new fabs and upgrades at 50-150k WSPM a pop.

China also has a bunch of 'planned' fabs with an aggregate capacity around 1M WSPM which would take a pretty good bite out of outside suppliers' load if successful.

And then you also have the fact that a 12-16nm chips shrunk to 6-8nm will produce 2-4X as many usable chips per wafer depending on how well the circuitry scales with process and the bits that don't scale well at all or need to be extra-rugged can be spun off on a separate die if necessary.
 
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thesub3001

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Dec 30, 2017
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As a gtx 1060 user since 2017, I see no need to upgrade for now. All games even new ones can net me good experience at 1080p albeit with a few sacrifices in graphics. I plan to upgrade to a rtx 2060 when prices finally calm down even if that means waiting for 2 years or so.
 
Glad I got my 3900X in August of last year. At the time I thought it was a terrible idea, since Zen 3 was right around the corner. But it turned into the best idea I've ever had. 12 cores for $380? Yes please.

Also lucky I found my 3070 at MSRP in January of this year, only took refreshing store pages on my phone till 6 AM since my Zotac 2070 died on me and I have no iGPU.
 
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/dances with 4 year old 1080Ti
Well, it seems to be aging better than the GTX 680 I previously ran 5 years on...

Pascal. LIVES. ON!
Pascal certainly does. I have a gt 1030 gddr5 from gigabyte. It is somewhat low performance, But I can’t afford anything better due to the card shortage. I was looking for a rx 570, but it went from 125 (normal price) to as high as 1k a card. My gt 1030, which I bought for 80 dollars, is selling for 150. I think I am going to use it until the ridiculous prices come down.
 
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anort3

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Not really. By most estimates, demand is only about 30% ahead of current supply, so the world only needs maybe one TSMC worth of extra capacity and it will get a good chunk of it in 2023 from the three usual suspects' new fabs and upgrades at 50-150k WSPM a pop.

China also has a bunch of 'planned' fabs with an aggregate capacity around 1M WSPM which would take a pretty good bite out of outside suppliers' load if successful.

And then you also have the fact that a 12-16nm chips shrunk to 6-8nm will produce 2-4X as many usable chips per wafer depending on how well the circuitry scales with process and the bits that don't scale well at all or need to be extra-rugged can be spun off on a separate die if necessary.
About those planned fabs.....

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tech/Semiconductors/Chip-tools-become-latest-victim-of-global-semiconductor-crunch
 

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