After Die Shrink, whats next?

[joset]

People who think quantum computers are the next step are dreaming.

I think the next step beyond what we have is to move past lithography and transistors to molecular assembly.

Well, Molecular Computing doesn't rule out QC (in fact, it may even complement each other...) and vice-versa; the fundamental issues here are orders of magnitude higher, on what concerns our ability - directly or otherwise - to control [quantum] states and be able to perform non-trivial calculations with them; like conventional transistors, the more "noise" we're able to take out of the equation (go overall downscale), the more we get buried into Quantum Mechanics and control slips through our fingers, Molecular Computing included.
Other than that, it's a wonderful world but you can't get rid of the electronic potential, especially, when dealing with Chemistry.

(Not an expert, though).


Cheers!

 

[dasickninja]

In short yup, or atleast thats what I gather about the subject and what I've forgotten in my microprocessor/operating science class.
@ Jumping Jack
Did I miss anything or was I extremely off in any parts of the explaination?

 

[cxl]

What e.g. about going from 2-state logic to 4-states? Or to encode states by phase shifts? If I remember well, latest phone-lines modems were able to push 33 kb/s through 2.4 Khz bandwith by using combination of phase shifts and multiple voltage levels. Maybe something similiar would be possible to achieve with core logic.

Sounds interesting but... what do you mean by a «4-states» logic?


Cheers!

Sorry me, now I am not sure whether you are addressing my typo?

2-state logic is high/low voltage or 0-1 in single wire. Theoretical "4-state" would express 0-1-2-3 in single wire by 4 voltage levels or maybe by something else like e.g. pulse width.

 

[endyen]

Theoretical "4-state" would express 0-1-2-3 in single wire by 4 voltage levels or maybe by something else like e.g. pulse width.

Yes well, and you are aware that a transistor is not a true switch, in as much as it can have a variable "on" state. In fact, if set up in darlington pairs, it could have a very wide output range.
Then again, if you want anilog computing, nanotubes may be for you. They can be set up with variable positive and negative ranges.
At this point though, the complex logic, and the software it would require, is probably beyond us mere mortals.

 

[antoant]

Well there are many devices that have more than one state. They are called analog.

 

[cxl]

Well there are many devices that have more than one state. They are called analog.

Actually, there were even analog computers. For certain computational tasks, if precision does not matter so much, they are unbeatable...

 

[cxl]

Theoretical "4-state" would express 0-1-2-3 in single wire by 4 voltage levels or maybe by something else like e.g. pulse width.

At this point though, the complex logic, and the software it would require, is probably beyond us mere mortals.

Well, acutally, I do not believe that 4-state logic is the way to go. I just wanted to show an example.

From practical point of view, IBM's dynamic logic is more interesting.

 

[joset]

Sorry me, now I am not sure whether you are addressing my typo?

2-state logic is high/low voltage or 0-1 in single wire. Theoretical "4-state" would express 0-1-2-3 in single wire by 4 voltage levels or maybe by something else like e.g. pulse width.

Typo?!
I'm merely curious since, as far as I know, a conventional transistor can only have two states: on & off. Now, even if you can vary the voltage input at both ends of the spectrum (i.e., Ioff/Idsat), you're still left with two transistor states. Certainly, at the inversion layer, when the threshold voltage Vt is overcome, you can discretely increase voltage (although I don't see the advantage of it...); still, you're left with two logic states: on & off.
Since we're dealing with digital devices (not analog), my question remains: How would a 4-state work, if different (above Vt) voltages do not define states (at least, in binary logic) but increased saturation? Seriously, I fail to grasp your point and I'm curious about your idea, that's all.


Cheers!

 

[cxl]

Seriously, I fail to grasp your point and I'm curious about your idea, that's all.

Sorry then for a little bit misleading example. Of course I do not know how to implement 4-state logic. I used that suggestion as stupid demonstration that perhaps it would be possible to achieve some more performance by exploiting different paradigm than simple on/off binary logic.

BTW, as for saturated states, there was decades ago ECL technology that used unsaturated bipolar transistors because at the time, saturated states were slow.

(Now thinking about it... but I am writing that just because it is momentary thought.... you perhaps could quite easily achieve 3-state logic system by using negative voltage to represent 3rd state .

 

[clue69less]

i think at some point we may see IBM re enter the pc/cpu segment,they have their hands in so many exciting technonlogies,i give them up to 10 years to find an alternative or a cpu type tech thats revolutionary.

I dunno, Vern. IBM seems to be playing it pretty safe over the last decade in terms of what goes to market. They do seem to put a ton of effort into evaluating new tech and in my experience, do not pull the plug on borderline success projects as quickly as Intel. Who knows, maybe they are looking for a big winner?

 

[cxl]

i think at some point we may see IBM re enter the pc/cpu segment.

Actually, I see that as quite likely scenario, but for completely different reason:

If AMD goes down, IBM is the most likely buyer.

 

[cxl]

ill say amd and Ibm would pair pretty well.imho.

Yep, that is my impression as well.

 

[1Tanker]

ill say amd and Ibm would pair pretty well.imho.

Yep, that is my impression as well.Ugly name though...AIMBDM

 

[joset]

Sorry then for a little bit misleading example. Of course I do not know how to implement 4-state logic. I used that suggestion as stupid demonstration that perhaps it would be possible to achieve some more performance by exploiting different paradigm than simple on/off binary logic.

I don't find it stupid at all; perhaps ill supported, I'd say. Actually, even Quantum Computing relies upon a quantum property, superposition (in which a particle/wave is allowed to be in an infinity of superimposed states, dictated by Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle, of which we're only able to know probability amplitudes); however, whenever the wave function collapses (quantum decoherence), the [classical] outcome is still binary: 0 or 1.
Even if one could manage two quantum "variables" simultaneously (say, it's mass/energy & spin) independently, I still believe that we'd be left with two binary outcomes...

Disclaimer: I'm not a Physicist, much less, an expert on QM. Just speculating; hence, relieving my conscience.

BTW, as for saturated states, there was decades ago ECL technology that used unsaturated bipolar transistors because at the time, saturated states were slow.

I'm still too young at Computing to know about its history; but, I'm always learning.

(Now thinking about it... but I am writing that just because it is momentary thought.... you perhaps could quite easily achieve 3-state logic system by using negative voltage to represent 3rd state .

Possibly (not probably, though)... but, that's the issue: What would that state be? "Maybe"? 1/2 (of what?)?


Cheers!

 

[joset]

Ugly name though...AIMBDM

MAD BIM.


Cheers!

 

[antoant]

(Now thinking about it... but I am writing that just because it is momentary thought.... you perhaps could quite easily achieve 3-state logic system by using negative voltage to represent 3rd state Smile.

Possibly (not probably, though)... but, that's the issue: What would that state be? "Maybe"? 1/2 (of what?)?
Well if you keep thinking binary then you have a problem using a third, fourth or hundreth state. However, if you use another system other than binary you could take advantage of extra states. For example if you had a device with ten states then you could use the decimal system. Although I don't know if that would provide more computational power.

 

[cxl]

Possibly (not probably, though)... but, that's the issue: What would that state be? "Maybe"? 1/2 (of what?)?

Simply you will use 3 as base (0, 1, 2). Whereas today you can store numbers 0-255 in 8 units (wires, bits), with 3-state logic you would express 0-243 in 5 units (wires, "trits").

Of course, you would have to develop completely new algebra to layout some real circuits like 3-state add-and-carry (the base of all computing .

 

[cxl]

Possibly (not probably, though)... but, that's the issue: What would that state be? "Maybe"? 1/2 (of what?)?

Funny, simple google search revealed this interesting site dealing with the subject:

http://www.trinary.cc/

 

[theaxemaster]

I think if you can make light-based chips, it could use any number of colors to represent the information. It would be interesting to make the system do math by combining light to get different colors which represent different answers too. Splitting it might be a bit more complicated, but new things always are.

 

[clue69less]

IABMMD,,,,I BAMMD ,BAM!

No way! Take it from Ali - the proper combo is:

IAMABADcpu,MAN

 

[joset]

Simply you will use 3 as base (0, 1, 2). Whereas today you can store numbers 0-255 in 8 units (wires, bits), with 3-state logic you would express 0-243 in 5 units (wires, "trits").

Of course, you would have to develop completely new algebra to layout some real circuits like 3-state add-and-carry (the base of all computing .

I used the term 'binary' regarding both transistor states & base-2 (0, 1) logic.

After following your advice (googling), I've found this site where it's stated that:

The first digital computers used ten voltages, meaning they where base 10 - or decimal.

(http://xyzzy.freeshell.org/trinary/)

I confess my lack of knowledge on this; anyway, I also found this:

In the case of real digital circuits currents are passed through the lines, but voltages between about 5 and 15 are called on or TRUE and near zero called off or FALSE. We identify TRUE with the digit 1 and FALSE with the digit 0.

(http://www.cs.ucl.ac.uk/teaching/B261/binary_logic.html)

The way I see it - and the way conventional transistors work - there are only two possible transistor states: on & off (ok, maybe a third, since 'off' doesn't mean total absence of voltage: Fried!). N-gate transistors, for instance, might do more parallel processing simultaneously but, I still fail to see which processing states a single transistor could take, other than... on or off (QC aside, for now).
Maybe you or someone else knows better; I'm interested.


Cheers!

 

[joset]

I think if you can make light-based chips, it could use any number of colors to represent the information. It would be interesting to make the system do math by combining light to get different colors which represent different answers too. Splitting it might be a bit more complicated, but new things always are.

Actually, that's the way optical fibres work, by modulating the wavelenght (or the frequency f; f=v/L, where v stands for velocity & L for wavelenght, Lambda) of different laser beams, hence, different colours, in parallel (simply put, of course). You can split beams with prisms, half-silvered mirrors & use polarizers to filter them.

But again, even with light beams, a supposed [optical] transistor would process in parallel, intermediate states (changing f or L; v=c) in such single devices (in flight, i.e., while the signal is travelling), would mean beam decoherence and information lost, at best.

Fell free to comment.


Cheers!

 

[joset]

No way! Take it from Ali - the proper combo is:

IAMABADcpu,MAN

Sorry.
You can only use the AMDIBM set of letters. No extras allowed.


Cheers!

 

[exit2dos]

No way! Take it from Ali - the proper combo is:

IAMABADcpu,MAN

Sorry.
You can only use the AMDIBM set of letters. No extras allowed.


Cheers!

What about ATI?

AM I A BIT MaD

 

[clue69less]

IAMABADcpu,MAN

Sorry.
You can only use the AMDIBM set of letters. No extras allowed.


The last M had coNroe envy.