AMD asks to double common stock to 1.5 billion shares

[georgelawton]

I am one that strongly disagrees.....


The split is due to a large part the upcoming k8 vs con and/or pen, AND, r600 vs 88xx..

AMD knows exactly what they have in their hands, and its a killer.

I recommend you all buy now, immediately, for the upcoming 2x release (btw r600 is on hold waiting for k8, they will strike the market at the same time, and absolutely blow the competition away, amd is the new Intel, mark my words, 03/07/07 signed, George).

All you silly people doubting and laughing, are in for a rude awakening, we should be VERY worried about whats about to happen. AM D knows exactly what it has up its sleeve, and the future is scarry.

I predict a 20-30% gain across the field, with a close to 50% advantage using amd/ati together, because of the break down in logic and drivers.

The two will be unstoppable, you may use intel and ati, or amd and nvidia, but nothing will compare to the brute force for amd and ati running together, with pure driver perfection. That is thier goal guys. You have been all wrong. Yes there is a delay, yes there is trouble, yes conroe pwns, but however, intel and nvidia are introuble, amd/ati are absolutely going to blow the fucking doors off of them. You can not fuck with 2 #2's combined, strategically, that have the same goals.

This is my prediction... capture it, 03/07/07........

BTW, intel, loses mass market share, and nvidia is eventually bought out by VIA, at a rediculously low cost, because of the stock falling out beneath Nvidia. Intel, eventually buys out ViA, and its 1 on 1, for the gcpu wars.

Also, watch apple, big time, i seriously advice investing large amounts of monies into apple, the trend they are on is not stopping, and something even bigger than apple stores and iphones, is coming, i mean rediculously big, as in overtaking HP and Dell in pc distro.


Enjoy.

 

[georgelawton]

george you sound like a fanboy.

I actually like intel, even tho i held onto my k6-2 for a year to not buy them, but, amd is gonna do some dirty damage in the next few months.

I mean why not help the lil guy? Do you really waNT 600$ 6400's?

pfft.

 

[BaldEagle]

I think the AMD dynamic is alot more elusive than that. 10 sounds good from here;But where the hell is here? Get what I mean?

I posted a video the other day,yesterday or something ;where Guiseppe Amato is discussing AMD's barcelona. We are not looking at a weak product here.
What we are looking at is some type of strategy that defys the logic of our current understanding.
Roughly One may assume that H1 is bieng held back in favor of a strong H2. All we can do is watch the dailies and look for the current analyst target of 12.
Like hector says the planning has purpose;Interesting to see that purpose revealed and how successfully it defeats the current stigma.
If the new shares arent in play ,its in house dumping on loan of new share availability,maybe.

$10 is really a long long long way from the $14 its at now. but you push out 100 million shares onto the market add some bad news like the quarterly report and you may see it by summer.

H1 is going to be horrible with Q2 being worse than Q1 after the Core2Duo price drops, but all the new goodies come into the revenue stream in H2.

Hector's been down before and hit them out of the park so no reason to expect is won't happen again, why he could even buy an ad or two.

 

[Aragorn]

I don't know how much of what I am about to say has been said (I only read 2 pages of 13) but I need to be sure it is said.

When investors value a company (decide what they think each share is worth and what prices they will buy or sell at) they also look at cash on hand. When AMD doubles the number of shares in the company the company will instantly have HUGE amounts of cash on hand and the ability to greatly increase their capacity and research.

This will leave them on much more even grounhd with intel. Therefore while they may not double their Market cap with the offering their cap will go up, the existing shares may become somewhat devalued but they will be worth much more than half of what they are now and they will have more potential.

AMD will not sell the new shares for less than a certain amount. Only they may know what they are willing to sell them for but if they only sell at high enough prices then the stock price is not that likely to fall much below those prices.

 

[gr8mikey]

$10 is really a long long long way from the $14 its at now. but you push out 100 million shares onto the market add some bad news like the quarterly report and you may see it by summer.

H1 is going to be horrible with Q2 being worse than Q1 after the Core2Duo price drops, but all the new goodies come into the revenue stream in H2.

Hector's been down before and hit them out of the park so no reason to expect is won't happen again, why he could even buy an ad or two.

I agree with your points here. I think anyone trying to call the bottom on AMD before the Q2 earnings release is in for quite a few sleepless nights. Don't be too hasty to think that a few good benches are gonna be enough to turn AMD's stock price around. Remember the IDF benches and the negligible effect they had on intel's share price. Even 6 months after volume selling of Core2 intel has been pretty much dead in the water. Don't expect anything different from AMD. Investors won't trust them again until the financials turn positive. Just my opinion of course (unlike our resident forum genius, I am wrong about these things about half the time.)

 

[gr8mikey]

I totally agree with your points. In my original post I was merely trying to help people understand what dilution meant. I really and truly hope that this strategy pays off for them.

 

[jediwraith]

Lots of good information here to digest. It will surley be a little tricky to determine the best time to buy in. Look what happened to NVIDIA a couple of years back. I believe there stock was down around $9.50 per share and look where its at now.

I do think that AMD will come around. Like many people have said there are new dynamics at play, we will just have to wait and see. Competition is a good thing, let’s hope that it continues.

 

[BaldEagle]

Intels release was timing related to market.AMD is planning gfx for the pre summer lull and then barcelona in august;Honestly it would be better reversed in some ways.Where barcelona gets the contracts and waters the moths of people waiting on cards.
AMD is just a much different dynamic Than intel.Quality doesnt sell intel to most folks that dont need to care about it.They buy it because they always have,not because its good
Thats only different for servers and enthusiasts.Amd on the other hand is quality scrutinized. And Henri will just have to accept it. One or 2 successful gens doesnt mean youre the baddest. Its a pat on the back and get back to work.

I am sure its in the order that best suits partner planning as well.

Revenue wise they are actually better off with the R600's first because the market is much broader than for Barcelona. As I alluded to in my last post the biggest diffence in dynamics is Intel advertises and AMD doesn't which is how Intel was able to pawn off the netburst crap when AMD clearly had a better product. AMD dominated the server and enthusiast market because those buyers choose to inform themselves but barely scratched the low end and laptop markets because of uninformed buyers and a fair amount of strong arming the manufacturers.

 

[halbhh]

$10 is really a long long long way from the $14 its at now. but you push out 100 million shares onto the market add some bad news like the quarterly report and you may see it by summer.

H1 is going to be horrible with Q2 being worse than Q1 after the Core2Duo price drops, but all the new goodies come into the revenue stream in H2.

Hector's been down before and hit them out of the park so no reason to expect is won't happen again, why he could even buy an ad or two.

I agree with your points here. I think anyone trying to call the bottom on AMD before the Q2 earnings release is in for quite a few sleepless nights. Don't be too hasty to think that a few good benches are gonna be enough to turn AMD's stock price around. Remember the IDF benches and the negligible effect they had on intel's share price. Even 6 months after volume selling of Core2 intel has been pretty much dead in the water. Don't expect anything different from AMD. Investors won't trust them again until the financials turn positive. Just my opinion of course (unlike our resident forum genius, I am wrong about these things about half the time.)

Certainly agree about calling a bottom, top, middle, etc., since short term price movements in all but hot momentum stocks (long or short) are typically random walk.

Regarding the much more interesting point that 6 months after volume for C2duo Intel dead in the water, this has to do with financials entirely IMO. It's entirely about Intel's clear mistakes of building up too much fab capacity too soon for even optimistic projections. In other words, bad management, which caused the "price war" (which is actually just trying to sell the overproduction!), and the reduced margins, and just the fact of reduced profits even with better products! That's not a pretty picture for the quality of managment, and investors are right to be skeptical of Intel managment in view of this.

Re AMD financials, I think the AMD stock will move addtionally in regard to AMD's prospects for years, so long as it is much smaller than Intel. That is, it will move both in reponse to financials *and* prospects for their technology, with a lot of show-me in that also. It's more of a speculative stock than Intel.

 

[Twisted_Sister]

Look at the insider and institutional selling guys...

insider selloff (many of which are not a big deal, as many are automatic transactions... but notice virtually no purchases). If this was such an undervalued stock, you'd see buying.

more importantly, institutions have sold off (net) 50MM shares to the open market... liquidating nearly 20% of their positions.

 

[halbhh]

Look at the insider and institutional selling guys...

insider selloff (many of which are not a big deal, as many are automatic transactions... but notice virtually no purchases). If this was such an undervalued stock, you'd see buying.

more importantly, institutions have sold off (net) 50MM shares to the open market... liquidating nearly 20% of their positions.

I'm pretty sure directors are considered insiders. If you look over the Yahoo insider trading on AMD, you'll see why AMD was mentioned not long ago for significant insider buying. Did you get the wrong ticker symbol?

If you have very recent info, why not post a link for us?

This is one I found to 3/2:
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/insider/trans.asp?Symbol=amd

 

[darkhorror]

I am keeping tabs on AMD stock now days looking too see if there is going to be a turn around and be able to get in at that turn around. Atleast for a short period of time. If we have a huge price drop at some point we may see a good turn around after that. I hope to make it in for that turn around. It's always nice to find something that you think may have a good price drop that you will have a better chance to get into for the turn around.

 

[halbhh]

the insider trades for other companies, like INTC, are interesting too. Of course, such transactions are meaningful when they *change* in typical behaviour, and you have to know what is typical. That's why the unusual buys by AMD directors garned a mention.

 

[Twisted_Sister]

Look at the insider and institutional selling guys...

insider selloff (many of which are not a big deal, as many are automatic transactions... but notice virtually no purchases). If this was such an undervalued stock, you'd see buying.

more importantly, institutions have sold off (net) 50MM shares to the open market... liquidating nearly 20% of their positions.

I'm pretty sure directors are considered insiders. If you look over the Yahoo insider trading on AMD, you'll see why AMD was mentioned not long ago for significant insider buying. Did you get the wrong ticker symbol?

If you have very recent info, why not post a link for us?

This is one I found to 3/2:
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/insider/trans.asp?Symbol=amd

Ummm... there has been no insider buying in 2007... per your own link. If the stock was such a "bargain" now (down from over $20 a share to $14) you'd see more activity.


Hector looks like he saw the writing on the wall, doing a major sale in Nov'06 when the stock was sitting @ $22... funny how CEOs can time the market so well

 

[halbhh]

just do basic stuff: look at great companies flourishing, like IBM, and Nvdia.

All selling. Should we presume their stock is going to drop like rocks?

No. You have to look at what's typical, and then what isn't. Insider trading at AMD seems to show a real belief in AMD.

Do you think we should short IBM based on their's?

It's only one factor of course, but at least be accurate about it.

 

[BaldEagle]

Certainly agree about calling a bottom, top, middle, etc., since short term price movements in all but hot momentum stocks (long or short) are typically random walk.

I would certainly agree AMD is just going to drift around until some news breaks.

Regarding the much more interesting point that 6 months after volume for C2duo Intel dead in the water, this has to do with financials entirely IMO. It's entirely about Intel's clear mistakes of building up too much fab capacity too soon for even optimistic projections. In other words, bad management, which caused the "price war" (which is actually just trying to sell the overproduction!), and the reduced margins, and just the fact of reduced profits even with better products! That's not a pretty picture for the quality of managment, and investors are right to be skeptical of Intel managment in view of this.

Excellent point Intel with the brand new Core2Duo isn't making making any more money because of excess fab capacity and the drop in netburst chip prices. Intel also failed to supply chip sets with two IDE channels for the Core2Duo's to force the move to SATA drives which didn't help them getting into the market either.

Re AMD financials, I think the AMD stock will move addtionally in regard to AMD's prospects for years, so long as it is much smaller than Intel. That is, it will move both in reponse to financials *and* prospects for their technology, with a lot of show-me in that also. It's more of a speculative stock than Intel.

AMD is scraping the bottom of the barrel and into debt up their eyeballs after the ATI aquisition which is why they are going to stock for funding they don't have any alternative. Intel sits on a mountain of cash three times the size of AMD's debt and while cash is flexible, investors like to see it put to work earning them money not parked on the sidelines. AMD has demonstrated they can build market share and profits with new technology whereas Intel generates the same profits selling the hottest tech or substandard junk.

 

[Twisted_Sister]

just do basic stuff: look at great companies flourishing, like IBM, and Nvdia.

All selling. Should we presume their stock is going to drop like rocks?

No. You have to look at what's typical, and then what isn't. Insider trading at AMD seems to show a real belief in AMD.

Do you think we should short IBM based on their's?

It's only one factor of course, but at least be accurate about it.

Look at institutional as well... selling.
Look at recent analyst outlook... almost all negative
Look at the short position... dramatically growing in the past month (up 30%)
Look at the the options... puts going up, calls going down

All I'm saying is that there is zero indication that the big $$ investors have a postive near term outlook on this stock.

If the big funds continue to divest... this stock will sink.

That being said, a lot of $$ can be made by being correct on contrarian picks - but it's all in the timing (don't buy till it nearly bottoms out).

Like I said, I don't mean to sound negative... because I'm actually looking to buy some. Since it's my money, I'm not convinced we've bottomed yet. However, I'm not a broker... so do not act on my thoughts (my disclaimer).

Fun stuff, I enjoy it. Really enjoy hearing all the different viewpoints.

 

[halbhh]

I'm definitely similar to a contrarian trader, since really I'm investing with a multi-year outlook.

The real make or break for me is of course whether AMD can gain server share, and be profitable, and progress, all long term things.

 

[halbhh]

Hmmm...good points. Makes an interesting point also that Intel can't do much better at advertising, whereas AMD could do a lot better. That means there's a potential there.

 

[halbhh]

Speaking of Nvidia, there's a trader stock, and it's playing up today dramatically.

Note that all the recent insider transactions for Nvdia were sells.

 

[BaldEagle]

There is a whole list of other dynamics,and some nearly as powerful as advertising.
One of those is the underdog syndrome;humans cant help but flock around a little guy that could do it and did as it embodies their own hopes and dreams in a way of manifesting the ability to attain recognition.

Amen, you gotta love the little guy scrapping with the giant.

Intel has made themselves look bad with their activity against AMD. So the public Image war is only held by intel for a superior product,Its not honest in any other way.

Intel doesn't have an image problem with most people. "One of the most powerful dynamics is ignorance".

And intel continues to sell netburst overstock and supply low end contracts on cpus because of brand codependance issues,so in that market its not honest below a certain price point AMD is the clear winner.And the shares dont relfect that.

I personally refer to it as netbust but your right it is CLEARLY an inferior product and yet you see people comparing X2 AM2 to Netburst in Best Buy all the time. "One of the most powerful dynamics is ignorance"

With Am2 holding down the bottom and AM2+ coming out It may be wise that people start to really wonder about intel purchases;If amd is going to validate rumors, all c2d converts may be upset that they didnt stick with AMD

The AM2+ is going to require a new MB to gain full functionality anyway so the C2D to AM2+ conversion is essentially the same cost as the AM2 to AM2+ conversion.

One of the most powerful dynamics is ignorance.

If you don't put that in your sig I will. Wow! what a statement.

 

[BaldEagle]

It just fits so many things, Baron, DragonSpayer, etc...